Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Lance from September 2006

Lance's comment from Septemeber 2006:

"The window of opportunity for those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to purchase is quickly slipping away, however I suspect most bubbleheads will miss it. I just hope they are on here a year from now explaining why they are still "waiting it out." The justifications will be interesting to hear." ( Comment at September 25, 2006 7:52 AM)


  1. Lance missed the opportunity to get the hell out of his townhouse!

    Ah, there is justice in this old world sometimes.

    Bwwaahhh! I'm laughing all the way to the Bank every Month & Lance writes out that BIG check on his quickly depriciating asset!

  2. I feel Lance's prognostications where pure fantasy. However after 25 years of trickle down economics, bull markets fed my endless liquidity and mindless greed, his generation truly believes it will be different forever and markets only climb with never any pain or corrections. Not so- now , in the past or in the future.

  3. Okay, let's hear the justifications. Bubbleheads are still waiting? Why? Painfully obvious ... Despite what the media may be saying, they know they still can't buy what they want to buy for the price they want to pay. Period. And in the meantime, they've missed their opportunity at buying some good substitutes at darn good prices. Those deals are gone now. Like VA has so aptly pointed out, the only "deals" out there now that they can afford are the places that even the other bubble heads wouldn't want. So, let's hear the bubble head exuses for waiting ... and waiting ... and waiting. Oh yeah, "next year" or maybe "the year after" or as Neil who beats it all "in 2011 or 2012".

    Got popcorn? No, you're still waiting for someone to pass it to you ...

  4. That's good stuff, submit it to comedy central.

    Foot, meet mouth.

  5. Just remember, this "window of opportunity" post was made by Lance # 04518367995515171654 , not by the imposter Lance (unless the imposter lance is Lance's Sub-conscious posting to amend for his pro-housing ways.)

    Another jem of Lance's wisdom from the archives...

    hmmm only 9% of all home loans made in 2003 were sub prime loans (i.e., loans to people with no credit history or a bad credit history) and that was a banner year for the issuance of subprime loans ... ten times as many as issued 10 years ago. So, how many loans overall are "sub prime"? 1%, 2%, 3% (remember there are a lot lot more older loans out there issued when they made up less than 10% of what they made up in 2003 ... ) ... and how many of those are at risk? Robert, simply put, your stats here are pretty irrelevant for most of us ... and especially for the economy. If you have to resort to telling us that something like 1 in 5 subprimes loans are at risk (as you do in another post further up), then you are scraping the barrel for "reasons" for economic gloom and doom as these subprime loans themselves make up less than 1% of ALL loans out there! Yeah, having 1/5 of less than 1% of all loans out there default is really gonna hurt the economy ... and those subprime borrowers most of whom already have bad credit for having defaulted previously.
    December 20, 2006 2:22 PM

    Also this great blast from the past from Lance...

    Robert asked:

    "Trillions of dollars of ARM reset in the next two years not relevant?"

    Again, not relevant because and every one of these lenders was qualified and found to be able to afford their loans even if interest rates happened to rise to the highest allowable under the loan contract terms. So, how many actually hold these ARMs is irrelevant to your argument since ALL of them should be able to afford any resets.
    July 06, 2006 8:55 PM

    And one more...

    There is no doubt that homeowners on ARMs that have gone up will feel stretched and some will feel that it is "impossible" to make the increased payments. But the point is that it is possible and the vast majority of them will. Will foreclosure rates go up? Sure, but it will be an insignificant number. It will be by no means a number capable of bringing on the "Great Housing Depression" you and your fellow bubbleheads are banking on. Rather than anacdotal newclips, perhaps statistics of how many ARM owners actually defaulting on their loans would be more useful.
    July 07, 2006 4:03 AM

    Hubris, arrogance, superiority complex, I just don’t know the right word (other than a cuss word) to describe these posts by Lance #04518367995515171654

    And remember, I am not attacking Lance, I merely went through the archives and presented the wisdom of the great housing oracle that is Lance.

    Thank You Lance for such brilliant predcitions and insight.

  6. I'm waiting it out until coworkers stop talking about neighbors handing the keys back to the bank. ;) Serioulsy, there is no risk to waiting for the next two years. None.

    As I noted before, the 'value' of the homes I'm considering is declining faster than I pay rent.

    I'm saving, very nicely, as a renter. Why would I want to give that up? Oh, when prices get down to where buy/rent are down at normal ratios, I'll sing a different tune. However, since all of my renting friends are negotiating rent rollbacks... that time is years away.

    I presume everyone has read a summary of the Goldman Sachs conference call; the one that stated that the best case scenario for Florida is a 30% price drop? (Assuming no recession.) Ouch... I know too many people who speculated in Florida real estate.

    There will be a 'window of opportunity': 2010 through 2015. ;)

    Got popcorn?

  7. Its sad. Why cant Lance just admit he was wrong about the magnitude of this correction? Is it arrogance? Is it a false faith? Its odd. Its like he sad 1+1=3 and when he is proved wrong he is doing everything to make people forget about him being wrong.

    Seriously lance, you have been more wrong then anyone I have ever known yet refuse to admit you were wrong..

    Bidding wars in may... wrong
    There is no bubble...wrong
    Media and bubble heads caused the bubble...wrong

    Show some class and admit you were wrong. As I said, your only argument is that the fed will let inflation go out of control revlieving you of your irresponsibility.. Stick with that.

  8. Lance said...
    robert said:
    -Please, enlighten us with any data that shows trends of sales increase, an inventory decrease, a reduction in foreclosures, and/or a reduction in the number of ARM’s resetting.-

    "again, for whatever reason Robert, I have learned that won't cannot see the forest for the trees ... even if it jumped out and bit you in the face. you keep looking for validation of your position in numbers that I and others have gone round and round with you explaining why they mean NOTHING ... absolutely NOTHING ... but yet you persist ... and I am not playing this game with you."
    July 21, 2006 9:09 AM

    Lance said...
    “My point has always simply been "there is never a bad time to buy" ...” July 26, 2006 3:07 PM

    va_investor said...

    I never claimed that we were not in for a corretion. I have consistently stated that real estate is cyclical. I believe a 90's style correction is in store.”
    September 04, 2006 5:09 PM

  9. "And in the meantime, they've missed their opportunity at buying some good substitutes at darn good prices. Those deals are gone now."

    LOL, keep it up lance.

    We have all missed our chance now that the market is racing up again right?

    Poor us...

    BTW, word must not have reached your neighbor about those rising prices...

    Check out: DC6528201

    Price Reduced: 09/19/07 -- $1,795,000 to $1,695,000
    Price Reduced: 10/09/07 -- $1,695,000 to $1,589,000
    Price Reduced: 11/15/07 -- $1,589,000 to $1,495,000

  10. "Despite what the media may be saying, they know they still can't buy what they want to buy for the price they want to pay. Period."

    We know we can buy a townhouse next to yours for a lot less than you paid. AND, we can afford it.

  11. I closed on my house yesterday. I got a great price and my interet rate is 6% paying less than .8 points. :-)

  12. Lance is not real. He does not even have the same blogger number as a year ago. My guess is that the original Lance ran off in shame some time ago and the current "Lance" is just some joke. Seriously, nobody can be as stupid as this Lance character that posts now. All Lance's are officially imposters

  13. This is precious -

    "The good news for the county is homes are available on the market, and they are selling. Through October, new listings were up from 10,959 last year to 11,759 this year, a 7.3 percent increase. And homes have stayed on the market 76 days, down from 81 days last year.

    If the national housing market bubble is bursting, Montgomery County Realtors, home sellers and buyers still have reasons for optimism that it will stay afloat here."


    Pass the Koolaid, I want to get on the spaceship.

  14. Lance is not real. He does not even have the same blogger number as a year ago.

    The number seems to have changed on April 9th 2007.

    old Lance profile:

    New Lance profile:

    You might have something there anon...


  15. "I closed on my house yesterday. I got a great price and my interet rate is 6% paying less than .8 points. :-)"

    That's great, Mara. If you're happy with your purchase, that's all that matters.

  16. I've always just assumed that "Lance" was intentionally making idiotic comments to get everyone all worked up, as a way to keep traffic coming to the blog. I just find it hard to believe that someone could actually be so ignorant, naive and stupid. I've made a habit of just passing by his posts, it's a waste of my time to read and/or respond.

  17. And in the meantime, they've missed their opportunity at buying some good substitutes at darn good prices. Those deals are gone now.

    This is more comedy gold. In many areas, inventory is at an all-time high. There are 10.8 months of inventory nationally, a 22 year high. Simple supply and demand says that you're wrong again. See ya in a year!

  18. "Good analysis. One thing to keep in mind though is that one person's loan is another's investment. I.e., The $400,000 loan on a house eventually gets resold to an investor such as you or me. The investor might buy the whole loan or the loan might be bundled with other loans and sold in shares. Yes, some banks might hold these shares as investments, but they wouldn't necessarily even be the same loans that they wrote. From what I understand, in today's market (vs. one say 40 years ago ... i.e., prior to the underwriting standards that made loans "standardized" and thus like "currency" to be bought and sold), banks now make their money initiating and servicing loans. So, when a loan defaults, it's the investor that gets stuck ... BUT since most debt is bundled, bad debt ratios are already estimated and accounted for in calculating what the loan will make. The end result is that like credit card bad debt, risk is spread so widely that lacking a TOTAL default on all loans, default losses are so spread around to be almost painless. Think of it like insurance (because of the pooling aspect in today's market). A few Katrinas are not good for those who are the ultimate insurers (and btw it's NOT the insurance companies ... just like the banks don't hold the loans ...), but overall because risk is spread, the market can adjust as needed before anyone "goes out of business" and additional calculated costs just end up getting borne by new policy holders ... i.e., the new insurance policies reflect the newly adjusted costs of doing business. Carrying that analogy over to mortgages, if we have higher than anticipated defaults on the mortgages issued in the last 5 years (and the key is "higher than anticipated" since all other defaults are ALREADY priced in), then the result will just be higher interest rates or initiation fees for NEW mortgage takers. I hope this helps you understand why you shouldn't be expecting the banks (or even current investors) to feel any pain if foreclosures go up."
    - Lance Jan 15 2007

  19. "Yep,if the default rate is going to be much higher than was anticipated when the loans were written, the result will be politically over-regulation and financially higher interest rates and initiation fees for future loans ... Making financed houses/condos more expensive and difficult to qualify for. However, I'm not convinced that the default rate will be higher than what was anticipated. The tools lenders have out there nowadays to separate the bad debt risk from the credit worthy borrowers are very sophisticated. It's my guess that those estimating the 2.2 million foreclosures that Robert keeps announcing are basing their estimates on past percentages of innovative mortgages that have gone bad. That would be incorrect since past innovative mortgages would have been issued without the benefit of the new screening tools. THAT and the fact that the economy keeps roaring away with unprecedented wealth creation for a vast swath of the population really means that the foreclosures will end up being few in the end ... Probably far fewer percentagewise than at any time in the past other than perhaps the last 5 years when foreclosures were impossible given that anything on the market sold within 2 days of going on the market. In sum, we should be fine."
    lance Jan 16 2007

    "MyTwoCents, I know you are counting on "having saved for a down payment" to put you above the maelstrom of financial difficulties that most other buyers will face, but I can't agree. Large downpayments were a necessity back when lenders had only very incomplete information on the person borrowing from them. You'll note that they NEVER demanded down payments from governments, sovereigns or others whose creditworthiness was beyond reproach. With today's tools downpayments are far less necessary than they were in the past. People's creditworthiness can be established to a far greater degree of certainty than it could even as recently as 5 years ago. AND, as has been the practice for at least 10 years back, the less credit-worthy are charged higher interest rates (actually, MUCH HIGHER interest rates) which in the agregate insure the lender against bad debt. (I.e., Poor credit people are made to carry their own weight.) Many lenders have centered their operations around what is a very high profit business --- lending to borrowers with poor credit. Capital One is a bank that grew from nothing in no short order targetting people with poor credit. Twenty years ago these people would have simply been screened out and denied credit and the rest of us would have been required to put down large down payments and pay extra interest to cover those few credit risks that did slip through the net. Today, the net is so tight, that they can instead be taken out of the general mix and charged enough to cover the extra risks they bring with them ... Lemonade has been made out of lemons! Thus leaving the rest of us with lower interest rates AND the ability to borrow with little or nothing down. If there is a financial maelstrom as you are envisioning, the fact that you have a downpayment to put down will mean nothing ... absolutely nothing. Now, if you have cash to make purchases, such as Va_Investor, then you will be in a very strong position. Since in the maelstrom you envision credit will be either unavailable or come with very high interest costs, then those who can avoid borrowing altogether will have a significant edge in buying."
    lance Jan 18 2007

  20. "Lemonade has been made out of lemons!"

    How do you like your subprime lemonade now lance?

  21. another amazing statement by Lance or who ever is posted by him. those "tools" that he is in love with are the tools that were used to lend money to any fool who could mark an "X' on the dotted line. "Lord what fools these Mortals be". he will never get it.