2007 Realtor Conference in Las Vegas Website
Yun Loses His Marbles in Vegas (Housing Doom)
Oh, Yun is blaming the media "The media, meanwhile, played up problems in the market, Yun said. "They have a natural bias of wanting to sensationalize all the news items."
"And, while many markets remained healthy, he said: 'The local media, many are just very lazy. They just copy the national stories and put them in their local papers.' "
Lawrence Yun Invterview
Posts
Does Yun have an explanation for this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21773741/
plug in your favorite metro area
Yun is a bigger shill and liar then Lereah if that is at all possible.
ReplyDeleteThe NAR has become part of the fascist corporate ponzi scheme to perpetuate an economy based on asset bubbles, gross consumer consumption and massive never ending debt.
In other news, Yun promised all the realtors that there would be a "happy ending"
ReplyDeleteNEWS FLASH....
ReplyDeleteYUN CLAIMS PLAGARISM
This just in, Yun of the NAR accuses local newspapers of plagarism. This is a serious crime, the stealing of another person copywrited words is a serious offence. Yun has taken this national crime on as a personel vendetta. Watch out plagarist, Yun is coming and he has pictures. And 1 picture equals a thousand words. And Yun has a lot of pictures, all of unsold houses.
JOhn
"fascist"
ReplyDeleteThat word has a meaning you know...
"Does Yun have an explanation for this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21773741/"
The explanation is that most of those areas getting hit are in rust belt areas with poor economies or in middle of nowhere places in CA where no one wants to live. Which is why the DC area will be protected. You see, we have the federal government here, and like it or not, the gov't keeps adding jobs. Plus, the number of contractors is growing at an even faster pace. And don't forget the lawyers on K St, which are growing at a rate which eclipses both the gov't workers AND contractors. And we all know the lawyers make oodles of money. Think about it, if you're a lawyer making boatloads of money on K St, where are you going to live? Dupont, of course, because it's so close to K st. Which is why my home will continue to appreciate for the forseeable future. Yep, Cleveland, Detroit, et al will decline, but I will be set even when my ARM resets.
Yun's comments to the NAR in Vegas are very much in line with what I've been saying on this blog here now for well over a year. For example:
ReplyDelete"the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term high-yield investment".
This statement is akin to my saying that BHs are wannabe flippers. BHs don't understand what buying a home means. They have confused buying a home with making a financial investment and consequently don't understand that buying a home is a life investment and not a financial investment. Two very different things.
In the same vein he explained:
Why stocks give you a better ROI than real estate.
In short, your home is an expense to be minimized over time, but an expense that will bring you a great ROI in terms of life benefits, it is not a good source of ROI for financial returns ... And mixing the two is what prevents people from focusing clearly on meeting their home needs AND their financial investment needs.
For this one instance, I'll ask the BHs to hold back on the childish, deflective, responses and honestly answer why they don't agree with what I've stated. After all, this is your future, both financial and otherwise, that is at stake here ... you must have good reasons for believing that it is okay to look at a home purchase no different than you would a financial investment ... please explain.
an expense that will bring you a great ROI in terms of life benefits,
ReplyDeleteLance, "life benefits" are very personal and not measurable. Some people prefer rice to bread. It's silly to extol the "life benefits" of eating rice when someone could remain perfectly happy eating bread.
What you're saying is that there is that owning benefits you, personally, and pays psychic benefits. That's only true if you choose to maintain that mindset. When people realize that the financial costs outweigh the psychic benefits or choose simply not to derive psychic benefits from owning (or, in your case, financially overextending oneself), the case for owning becomes much less compelling.
"Think about it, if you're a lawyer making boatloads of money on K St, where are you going to live? Dupont, of course, because it's so close to K st. Which is why my home will continue to appreciate for the forseeable future."
ReplyDeleteI work in a K Street firm....not a single one of our lawyers lives in the District. All of them live far out in Maryland and Virginia because the schools are better and they can own actual land. The kids in the low jobs who earn nothing rent in U St and Forest Hills. Contractor jobs are not in the District for the most part, they are in MD or VA, or even in other states. The money lives away from the District, lance. They come here to make money and don't mind the commute to come home to a really nice place with a actual lawn and yard. You have no basis for your claims about where the majority of the rich DC lawyer's live.
For those that are actually capable of comprehending written english, from the msnbc report cited above note that the DC/Alex/Arl metro area was ranked 38th out of 100 top metro areas for foreclosure activity (1st being worst), and was in the elite top-ten for the worst percentage increase Oct. y-o-y.
ReplyDeleteOn a State-by-State basis, those three famous rust-belt and no-population-growth states California, Nevada, and Florida took the top three spots for foreclosure activity.
While we're on the topic of Lawrence Yun, here's Samuel Miller's take:
ReplyDeletehttp://matrix.millersamuel.com/?cat=25
BTW, Miller is a nationally known and quoted authority on real estate, and a critic of Robert Shiller.
..and just to round out the whole deal:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0711/gallery.real_estate.fortune/10.html
Below is a quote from the one and only Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. This is in regards to Miami and Seattle:
ReplyDelete"But it's also possible that some are joining the ranks of international cities like London, Paris, San Francisco and New York, where costs are less tied to incomes, he said. "Now I'm beginning to think: Miami, Seattle, are they becoming superstar markets?"
Many wealthy baby boomers are moving to Miami, Yun said. "In Seattle, Microsoft millionaires are there."
While the Seattle area's job market is still strong, Yun said the affordability crunch caused by rising home costs would slow sales and cause prices to plateau.
"I feel that the Seattle market is very healthy in terms of the local job market conditions," he said. "I don't see any prolonged price declines."
I think it's safe to assume that Washington can be added to that list of superstar cities. Like I've said numerous times, with all the lawyers, GS-15's, etc, we are on a permanent plateau where home prices will be forever disconnected from income. I am so glad I bought when I did, locking in my living costs forever (or at least until my arm resets).
Sorry, the url at 10:31 should be:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0711/gallery.real_estate.fortune/10.html
(max window)
David,
ReplyDeleteWhy are you letting through posts under my name where it's blatantly obvious that they are not from me?
Lance
And why am I no longer able to post under my own name?
ReplyDeleteLance
"And why am I no longer able to post under my own name?"
ReplyDeleteHahahahahaha! All Lances are imposters. They should all be banned.
I for one welcome the new and improved lance.
ReplyDeleteAs much as Lance can be maddening, hacking a blogger name is definitely sleazy.
ReplyDeleteLance: contact Google Help.
re:
ReplyDelete"They have a natural bias of wanting to sensationalize all the news items."
What did this 'poor excuse for an expert on housing' think when all the media helped hype housing and make it the bandwagon contagion it turned out to be? Did he bitch about them then? Having a selective memory is fine if it's done by you and me. We are nobodies and our opinions are inconsequential.
Someone, someday, somehow should sure as f*****g hell do something about people in high places who dare to mislead the common unsuspecting non-thinking average citizen that makes up the American populace.
TEST
ReplyDelete"As much as Lance can be maddening, hacking a blogger name is definitely sleazy."
ReplyDeleteHacking a blogger name maybe sleazy. Hacking a troll's name?...not so much. No sympathy here.
"And why am I no longer able to post under my own name?"
ReplyDeleteHahahahahaha! All Lances are imposters. They should all be banned.
Muhahahahahaha! Too LMFAO!
First-- would all you anonymice and lance-impersonators please knock it off, already?
ReplyDeleteAssuming there are still some people reading who would like to have a discussion, I'll respond to this:
For this one instance, I'll ask the BHs to hold back on the childish, deflective, responses and honestly answer why they don't agree with what I've stated. After all, this is your future, both financial and otherwise, that is at stake here ... you must have good reasons for believing that it is okay to look at a home purchase no different than you would a financial investment ... please explain.
I'm assuming this is the real Lance, since he has made-- and I have responded to-- very similar requests in the past.
BHs don't understand what buying a home means. They have confused buying a home with making a financial investment and consequently don't understand that buying a home is a life investment and not a financial investment. Two very different things.
I understand very well what buying a house means. (Homes can only be made-- not bought.) What you don't seem to understand is that different people have different needs. For that matter an individual often has different needs at various times in their life. And no, the fact that I may need or want something different in the way of housing than you does not make me a poor citizen, irresponsible or foolish.
I have led a very peripatetic life -- as did my parents. They bought houses throughout their respective careers-- not because they particularly wanted to or it made sense, but because they had four children-- and in the 50's and 60's when we were growing up affordable rental houses were few and far between. They were glad to give up the headache of owning a house and happily bought a condo when they moved to this area. They were equally happy to sell it when they moved to a retirement home.
I've already stated my own reasons for buying and selling when we did many times: I think they were excellent reasons-- for us. Others have equally excellent reasons for making the decisions they do: My sister bought not long after we sold, and I encouraged her to do so. She loves to garden and had always wanted a house.
They bought something well within their means, with a sizable down payment and a traditional, fixed rate mortgage. (Ignoring their realtor's arguments in favor of 'stretching' to buy the maximum -- based on a teaser rate-- the bank would have allowed.)
For us, selling when we did has given us a great deal of flexibility (something that is an important 'life investment' for us) in deciding where we want to live and where we might want to retire a few years hence. If we decide to spend at least part of the year here, we'll likely be in the market again-- for either a house or -- my own preference-- a condo-- before too long.
In short-- for you a house is a 'life investment'. For me 'life investments' include education, travel, and anything that increases my choices and opportunities. Different strokes, as we used to say...
Sarah,
ReplyDeleteYes, that was me .. but I don't think we connected question-wise. What I am trying to figure out is why people are deciding when to buy or when to sell the place they call their home solely on when there is financial gain to be made (or conversely, financial loss to be avoided.) From what you relate, you aren't doing that. Nor am I. So, perhaps you can't answer that question ... and perhaps you've mistakenly taken my criticism of people who do as criticism of anyone who rents. I do not. As I've said many times before, there are many good reasons to rent for many people at different (or all) times in their life. What there isn't a good reason for is basing your buy sell decisions of what you call your home dependant on what the market is doing.
I'd like to add a reply in response to "Lances'" simplistic generalization concerning people making oodles of money wanting to live in Dupont. First of all, I'm a lobbyist and in general I make more money than just about EVERY lawyer I know. That being said; I would have to have my head checked to live in DC.
ReplyDeleteI chose to make my home in Mclean, right across the bridge. Frankly, I dont know a single person of wealth that lives in DC. Most are in Potomac, Chevy Chase, Bethesda and McLean.
Why? Because DC has VERY poor city services in my opinion; be they school, police, parking, health etc. Do I need to even bring up crime? When I 1st moved to DC years ago, my car insurance was THREE times what I pay in McLean. That alone made me move to VA. I have a half dozen cars, insurance alone in DC would have cost me what a median family makes in one year.
I go to DC for business and pleasure , nothing else. When I go home, I drive 12 minutes across G-town into McLean. All the while knowing full well that my vehicle wont get stolen from my front driveway & my house wont get shot-up.
What I am trying to figure out is why people are deciding when to buy or when to sell the place they call their home solely on when there is financial gain to be made (or conversely, financial loss to be avoided.)
ReplyDeleteAnd that was what I was trying to explain. You happen to be emotionally invested in your house. To you, it is a home. Fine. Many people feel the same way. They would no more sell their home than their dog. Me, not so much. I care about the people in it. I care about the friends and family nearby. The actual structure? It's kinda nice-- as long as everything is working right. When it's not-- and I have to run around trying to find honest and competent people to fix things-- and who won't charge an arm and a leg-- it's a major pain in the butt.
So, yes, if the risk/reward equation comes out right, I'll sell-- or buy-- without any qualms. It's a complicated equation, mind you, and not all the variables are known. How long will we likely stay? How secure and steady is our income? What if one of the European in-laws gets sick? What if one of us gets sick? How quickly could we sell if we really needed to? What kind of other reserves do we have?
For many people it wouldn't have made financial sense to sell when we did, in 2005. For others, it would have been emotionally painful. And I know that many people bought sensibly like my sister. But many also stayed because they were sure their houses were going to keep doubling in value ever few years, and others bought because they were afraid they were going to be 'priced out forever'-- or because they believed the hype about housing 'never going down'.
I play by the old rules: don't buy unless you are likely to stay at least 5 years, don't buy more than you can afford (a mortgage no more than 3 times yearly income is the traditional rule of thumb, and the one I continue to use), don't put all your assets in one basket, don't spend more than you earn, and don't bet more than you can afford to lose. But then, I'm just a bubble-head.
Thank you Sarah in DC
ReplyDeleteYou made some very important points as to why you will buy when it is best for you to do so.
Many of your arguements are the arguements that the so-called bubbleheads have made or are sticking to, (3X income for a mortgage) good prudent financial wisdom.
The trouble many posters here have with Lance Blogger # 06478851584973055533
(now we have to keep track of them by their number, you can't tell one player from another without a scorecard)
is the fact Lance (Lance 0647 for short) tends to view anyone waiting to buy as being foolish for not buying now or in the very near term of a few months. I can tell by your posts you are not, I repeat Not trying to time the market, you are taking your time since you want a house or condo when it fits your lifestyle, or to be more accurate, your life.
You want a house or condo when it falls into your schedule, not anyone else's. You will ignore the housing bulls who always say "buy now" knowing you and you alone will have to take care of your residence, making repairs, paying the utilities and taxes, etc., not the housing bulls or lance 0647. You will buy when it is best for you to do so, not as someone timing the market, but someone timing the purchase to your life.
I suspect many of the so called "bubbleheads" are operating on the same premise, they will buy when it fits into their life, not anyone else's.
Again, thank you Sarah in DC for your thoughts and comments.
(A bit off topic, I chose the name anti-lance because I do not object if you out there reading this buy a house/condo now or wait until buying fits your life. You, each of you, will do what is best for your life, if buying now is what you are going to do, no one can stop you. If waiting to buy when it fits your life, no one can force you to buy. I myself just wish each of you the best and I hope you get the house of your liking when it is time, for you individually, to buy, and not when it is someone else's time to buy.
Have a great weekend.)
And that was what I was trying to explain. You happen to be emotionally invested in your house.
ReplyDeleteSara. Good point. The issue right now is homes are too expensive for most families to become emotionally invested. Price to income, in most US areas, has gone far to out of whack.
I play by the old rules: don't buy unless you are likely to stay at least 5 years, don't buy more than you can afford (a mortgage no more than 3 times yearly income is the traditional rule of thumb, and the one I continue to use), don't put all your assets in one basket, don't spend more than you earn, and don't bet more than you can afford to lose. But then, I'm just a bubble-head.
Simple smart rules to live by. In today's environment, being liquid and mobile has its advantages. It is a life choice. But a life choice of too much debt when rent is so much cheaper? Nyet.
The most important financial decision of one's life should be made smartly. Nothing determines one lifetime standard of living as when one buys in the real estate cycle. Those that bought five or six years ago did well. But there is a reason foreclosures nationwide are going crazy. People went beyond their means. I refuse to.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Sarah,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the explanation. Note though that with the exception of the 3 yr rule (which comes from when when interest rates were in the double digits and monthly payments hence much higher than today), you've basically described the same home buying constraints, guidelines, and desires of everyone participating on this board and not just those of the bubbleheads. Good prudent buying habits are not what define a bubblehead. On the contrary, one could argue that bubbleheads are far less prudent than those who have bought within their means under current conditions. After all, bubbleheads are gambling on the far off chance that prices will go down substantially, AND that rents won't go up. People who've bought prudently have locked in at an amount that they can handle today and into the future. People who are waiting for a drop in house prices don't know if house prices will drop and don't know if rents will go up. Their fortunes are at the whim of forces outside their control. How do you justify this gambling on falling prices and stagnent rents as prudent?
"People went beyond their means. I refuse to."
ReplyDeleteGot popcorn?
Neil
Neil, you are absolutely right. By why do you feel you must live beyond your means by buying vs. renting. Why can't you just buy within your means?
Why can't you just buy within your means?
ReplyDeleteWhy not wait a few years and get much more within my means? Come on Lance, we're talking about saving $250k or more for the homes I'm looking at. From a financial standpoint, its ridiculous to throw away that kind of money.
I can wait... buy a 400 ft^2 bigger home in a slightly nicer location... and have money left over for two cars and some vacations.
Or buy now and be locked in for 7 to 10 years. And not be happy with what I owned.
You do realize how much cheaper it is to rent right now, don't you? Never in my lifetime has it been so cheap to rent and so expensive to buy. So I choose the option that makes sense for the next few years.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Wannabuy, you hit the nail on the head for most of the so call "bubbleheads". That is why they are not buying. People like Lance just don't want to admit that they bought at a bad time. But that's OK, Lance is happy with his home. Hopefully he is still happy with it in 5 years.
ReplyDeletewannabuy said...
ReplyDelete"Why can't you just buy within your means?
Why not wait a few years and get much more within my means? Come on Lance, we're talking about saving $250k or more for the homes I'm looking at. From a financial standpoint, its ridiculous to throw away that kind of money."
You do realize that saving $250k or more is far from a given, don't you? Unless you are talking about a very expensive house, and this $250k amounts to something like a 5% - 15% savings off of that exepensive home, you do realize the experts don't believe you'll be saving that much ... ? Also, no one knows what rents will do, however we do know they've been rising quickly and that inflation warnings have been rung ... again, by the experts. You're hitting the jackpot comes with a lot of "maybe's" ...
wannabuy said...
ReplyDelete“I can wait... buy a 400 ft^2 bigger home in a slightly nicer location... and have money left over for two cars and some vacations.”
Same here wanna. Even with $50K-$100K+ price drops, sales are just not making a comeback. You now have hundreds of homes to choose from. You can take your time, shop around, look for the better location/structure/whatever and as if it were an added bonus, prices are dropping.
Lance said...
ReplyDelete“Unless you are talking about a very expensive house, and this $250k amounts to something like a 5% - 15% savings off of that exepensive home, you do realize the experts don't believe you'll be saving that much ... ?”
http://tinyurl.com/2onp5a
lance lance lance...
ReplyDelete5-15%? We are already down way more than that in many areas and the real price drops are just beginning inside the beltway.
"Eight states ... for which there is greater than 30% house price depreciation forecast would be California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington D.C. ... 13% to 14% nationally masks some states that we have accute concerns.
Goldman Sachs, Nov 19, 2007"
Good luck convincing someone to waste a lot of money. You have your work cut out for you seeing as pretty much everyone here knows better than you do...
lance said:
ReplyDelete"Also, no one knows what rents will do, however we do know they've been rising quickly "
WRONG. Rents are dropping in the DC area, I don't know what experts you refer to but they are wrong.
"...and that inflation warnings have been rung "
Well, finally you say something that is truthful! We should celebrate. In my opinion this is the only hope home debtors have. prices will come down to income or inflation will make it happen. That is the fact.
bob
Robert said:
ReplyDeleteEven with $50K-$100K+ price drops, sales are just not making a comeback. You now have hundreds of homes to choose from. You can take your time, shop around, look for the better location/structure/whatever and as if it were an added bonus, prices are dropping.
I 100% agree. And we really won't have selection until the new mortgage guidelines come into place. By December due to the free market correcting... by March due to the new GSE rules. Today's prices cannot be sustained by tomorrow's sales rates.
Anon (Bob) said: WRONG. Rents are dropping in the DC area,
Exactly. Every renter I know has negotiated a rent cut or, at worse, such a minor rent increase that it was cheaper to stay another year rather than move. Some of my renting friends are upgrading their space and paying less.
prices will come down to income or inflation will make it happen. That is the fact.
Inflation is slow. And its import inflation, not wage inflation. :(
I'm in a very comfortable place renting. My investments are doing well. Coworkers are more interesting in pursuing career opportunities in Denver or other low cost of living areas than buying in any of the high cost of living markets.
If I could have bought in 1995, that would have been great. But in 1995 I was a starving grad student. Cest la vie. Now lets talk price to rent at today's prices. It points to one conclusion...
Got popcorn?
Neil