The housing market in the Washington and Baltimore area has been declining in the Washington, DC for about 2 years. Thus the year over year comparisons only represent a portion of the declining housing market.
Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City, & Falls Church City, VA (NVAR))
- Median Price: $435K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -5.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -25%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 7%
- Active Listings YoY: 0%
- Median Price: $265k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 0%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 2.8%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -32%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 47%
- Active Listings YoY: 17%
- Median Price: $393k
- Median Sales Price YoY: 4.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 5.6%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -2.5%
- Average Days on Market YoY: -4.6%
- Active Listings YoY: 0%
- Median Price: $302K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -10%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -55%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 82%
- Active Listings YoY: 59%
Montgomery County, MD
- Median Price: $415K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -4%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 2.1%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -36%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 27%
- Active Listings YoY: 15%
Loudoun County, VA
- Median Price: $414K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -3.2%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-1.3%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -18%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 5%
- Active Listings YoY: -1%
- Median Price: $487K
- Median Sales Price YoY: 4.7%
- Average Sales Price YoY: 7%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -12%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 52%
- Active Listings YoY: -13%
- Median Price: $287K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -13%
- Average Sales Price YoY: -9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: - 34%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 40%
- Active Listings YoY: 15%
- Median Price: $425K
- Median Sales Price YoY: -7.6%
- Average Sales Price YoY:-2.9%
- Total Units Sold YoY: -26%
- Average Days on Market YoY: 12%
- Active Listings YoY: 4%
These numbers show a declining housing market in the Washington - Baltimore area compared to last year. For every jurisdiction listed, the number of housing sales fell in October compared to October 2006.
The Washington - Baltimore area is not recovering from the housing decline. Far out suburbs and condos are especially vulnerable to large price declines. In the metropolitan area a declining housing market is reality.
Posts
Just to pre-empt any crowing from lance, let's take a look at his own zip code, 20009:
ReplyDelete2007 Total Sold DOllar Volume: $23,925,883
2006 Total Sold Dollar Volume: $35,853,590
% Change: -33.27%
2007 Average Sold Price: $460,113
2006 Average Sold Price: $504,980
% Change: -8.88%
2007 Median Sold Price: $416,250
2006 Media Sold Price: $445,000
% Change: -6.46%
Dean,
ReplyDeleteHow did you get your numbers?
Thanks,
Neil
TO make things even more interesting...
ReplyDeleteLets compare to two years ago.
2005-7 Total Sold Dollar Volume:
$39,592,450
$35,853,590
$23,925,883
-39.6%
(that is a minus sign lance, not a hyphen)
Also, remember lance's little story about "average rowhouses" going from $1 million to $2 million?
Guess how many homes over $1 million sold in his entire zip code last month.
0
(that is to say z-e-r-o)
31 on the market, 0 sold.
"Guess how many homes over $1 million sold in his entire zip code last month.
ReplyDelete0
(that is to say z-e-r-o)
31 on the market, 0 sold."
That is an infinite months supply of million plus housing units!
Honestly: where are those thousands of SES's and GS-15's and Arnold & Porter associates when you need them?
ReplyDeleteJerkstore
I do not have any faith in figures published by the Realtors. I think the numbers are much worse. I can't tell you how many "new" listings I see when the price is reduced on a house--They don't update the old listing, they create a new listing. So when the house finally does sell at a much lower price, the Days on Market figure is far less than what actually occurred.
ReplyDeleteDean,
ReplyDeleteYou obviously don't live in the city, if you did you'd know that zip codes don't equal neighborhoods. 20009 encompasses bits and pieces of some 5 un-related neighborhoods. Combine that with the fact that all you need do is change the mix of housing coming on line, for example all the condos coming on line in the U Street cooridor, and you have a basically meaningless statistic.
Like I've said before, you have to do the hard work and research and actually pound the pavement if you're serious about buying a house/condo and want to get your best deal. And only after you truly understand the layout of the land can you bring statistics into it. As KH has accurately pointed out on the NoVa blog, properties near metro lines in Arlington and Alexandria have continued to go up. The zip code statistics wouldn't tell you that because zip codes aren't organized around metro stops. KH knew because he was willing to do the hard work this involves. Most BHs aren't. Hence why they'll be renting forever ... still waiting to time the market "just right".
You guys just wait. Pretty soon, we will be rebounding out of this housing funk. My house will most likely be worth well over a million by next spring selling season. Plus with the rise in common consumer goods, bubbleheads will be not only priced out of houses forever, but life!
ReplyDelete"As KH has accurately pointed out on the NoVa blog"
ReplyDeleteI already know the answer... but do you have any evidence?
Or is another of your usual "lance specials" where you just make up something you like the sound of without a shred of evidence?
wannabuy: there's a page specifically for http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/zip_stats.cfm">zip code statistics at the MRIS site.
ReplyDeleteva and lance are constantly repeating... not in my town, not in my zip code, not on my block. Then it will be "not with my house."
Buying real estate isn't that hard-- it involves simply making sure you don't lose money by purchasing at the top of the market, especially when you have to over-leverage yourself to make the deal, which is precisely what you did, lance.
va_investor is annoying and delusional, but at least wise enough not to overextend him/herself.
NOT MINE:
ReplyDeletelance said...
You guys just wait. Pretty soon, we will be rebounding out of this housing funk. My house will most likely be worth well over a million by next spring selling season. Plus with the rise in common consumer goods, bubbleheads will be not only priced out of houses forever, but life!
November 13, 2007 6:27 AM
You have to wonder about a person who believes they can only win their argument by trying to discredit the person they don't agree with. It doesn't show a lot of confidence on their part in their own beliefs or abilities. It's sad really. It's also indicative of a real loser when you have to resort to tricking your fellow bubbleheads to support the bubblehead argument.
I was pounding said pavement in NW until our broker told me to stop. We're seeing big reductions in our price range. The exuberance is gone, mate. I am looking at "snapping up/gobbling up/snatching up/other annoying saying" a new SFH in NWDC at a nice discount in 2008.
ReplyDeleteJerkstore
David,
ReplyDeleteThis imposter has to be stopped. I am Lance and the other poster is the fake. If you look at my ID number, it is 06478851584973055533.
The imposter has an ID of 12216089306021385355.
The imposter has a higher number, which means he joined blogger at a later time.
For everyone else, if you mouse over my name on my posts, you will see my ID number, that is how you will know who is real and who (Bill) is not.
"You have to wonder about a person who believes they can only win their argument by trying to discredit the person they don't agree with."
ReplyDeleteSays the guy who has been lying almost continually since he got here...
"This imposter has to be stopped. I am Lance and the other poster is the fake."
ReplyDeleteI agree, the imposter has gone too far.
Without lance who will troll this blog continually?
Think about it. Rational discussions might take place without obvious strawmen and pathetic cheap shots.
Without lance how will people learn that unless they have bought an overpriced house they aren't a "true citizen?"
People could learn more about the real estate market without lance lying about visiting "average rowhouses" that have gone from $1 million to $2 million over the last 12 months.
Indeed, this imposter can not be allowed to continue to troll the troll. Only the true lance is allowed to be a troll.
lance, we don't actually believe the impostor is you. We just find it funny when we read the lance-parody posts because they're such an amusing exaggeration of your own posts.
ReplyDeleteThose two are both fake. I am the real Lance and my comments will not be immitated.
ReplyDeleteNOT MINE:
lance said...
You guys just wait. Pretty soon, we will be rebounding out of this housing funk. My house will most likely be worth well over a million by next spring selling season. Plus with the rise in common consumer goods, bubbleheads will be not only priced out of houses forever, but life!
November 13, 2007 6:27 AM
You have to wonder about a person who believes they can only win their argument by trying to discredit the person they don't agree with. It doesn't show a lot of confidence on their part in their own beliefs or abilities. It's sad really. It's also indicative of a real loser when you have to resort to tricking your fellow bubbleheads to support the bubblehead argument.
November 13, 2007 7:25 AM
Funny how David completely ignores the fact that prices have risen in DC year over year. Some "declining housing market."
ReplyDeleteexaggeration?
ReplyDeletefake lance said...
ReplyDelete"You guys just wait. Pretty soon, we will be rebounding out of this housing funk. My house will most likely be worth well over a million by next spring selling season. Plus with the rise in common consumer goods, bubbleheads will be not only priced out of houses forever, but life!"
The funny thing is, the fake lance is posting fake messages so much that we're all getting practice at distinguishing the real lance from the fake one. I don't think the fake lance fools anyone anymore.
"I don't think the fake lance fools anyone anymore."
ReplyDeleteI don't think the real lance does either.
Those DC numbers are terrible news for anybody who gives the slightest sympathy to david's side.
ReplyDelete"I don't think the real lance does either."
ReplyDeleteThe real lance never did. (Well, he fools kh and VA_Investor, but other than that he never did.)
As far as DC goes, one month does not make a trend. Yes, prices are up YOY in October, but remember, they were down almost 18% in September. Despite the YOY gain in October, the price is still well off the October 2005 median of $425,000. Therefore, the two year trend from when the market peaked is still down.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the fake lance fools anyone anymore.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the fake lance thinks he's fooling anyone. His posts are obvious exaggerations. Were you actually fooled at one point? I think the posts are quite amusing and it's fun to see the troll get trolled.
Lance is a joke. His comments and train of thought are so predictable that someone can impersonate him and be pretty accurate (with some humorous exaggeration, of course).
ReplyDelete"As far as DC goes, one month does not make a trend. Yes, prices are up YOY in October, but remember, they were down almost 18% in September. Despite the YOY gain in October, the price is still well off the October 2005 median of $425,000. Therefore, the two year trend from when the market peaked is still down."
ReplyDeleteNice logic, idiot. Up year over year means higher prices than at this time last year, which means a huge rally back from being down 18% just a month ago. None of you seems to want to admit that the DC market has been extremely resiliant, but numbers don't lie.
"Nice logic, idiot. Up year over year means higher prices than at this time last year, which means a huge rally back from being down 18% just a month ago. None of you seems to want to admit that the DC market has been extremely resiliant, but numbers don't lie."
ReplyDeleteYou obviously know nothing about economics or trends. The individual monthly YOY differences are irrelevant. It's the broader trend that matters. The broader trend says that the market in the District is down about 10%. Yes, it is holding up better than other areas, like Woodbridge or Dale City.
"You obviously know nothing about economics or trends."
ReplyDeleteYou obviously can't articulate an argument.
"The broader trend says that the market in the District is down about 10%. "
The more recent trend is that it is up about 5% over the course of the last year. Maybe if you squint your eyes real hard you can see a minus sign next to the 5 and you'll be happy again.
But it won't be reality. The reality is that the DC market is up, and obviousy made a considerable rebound from September to October.
Oh yeah, look at those terrible trend lines. I mean, up, up, up. How can we ever survive that!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dcsf1007.pdf
Sorry, but single family homes in the district may still be up YOY (in Oct. at least), but the metro area is down overall.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/DC/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/
Single families may be up still, but condos are down.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dccc1007.pdf
Those pushing to keep this fantasy of a financial bubble inflated are underestimating the power the article from Fortune Magazine and carried on CNN has. Because of that, prospective buyers will now expect a 25 percent cut from current prices in DC and many won't buy till they get it.
ReplyDeleteThe New York Times blared on the front page years ago that Wen Ho Lee was a traitor and stole secrets from the U.S. Most of America believes that is the case, but it was proven not to be. Oh, prosecuters then drummed up some ass-covering "improperly handling documents" to cover the incompetent FBI's ass, as they always do. But it is the initial big story that "makes" the truth, and still to this day, most Americans, if asked, will say, "oh yeah, he was a spy."
You know the old saying, "It's true, I read it in the paper." If you are one of those actually believing this price decline is temporary or won't hit hard at close-in and Metro-proper eventually, you disregard that old saying at your own peril.
"Single families may be up still, but condos are down.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2007-home-sales/dccc1007.pdf"
And in total, they are all together up by about 5%.
anon 12:15 said
ReplyDelete"you obviously know nothing about economics or trends"
For some reason David failed to link inventory trends (which can be found at virginiamls.com realty) See "today's Housing Inventory".
Do YOU understand what a trend is? Do you understand that it appears that (based upon trends of the past 3 years) inventory may be trending down and prices flattening?
If you want to argue absorption rate, then post the data or a link. I believe that inventory is a key forward looking indicator. You can agree or disagree, but please state your reasons.
"Single families may be up still, but condos are down."
ReplyDeleteNot according to the numbers David posted, those supposedly included both Single family AND condos...I'm still waiting to see this dramatic price drop (-25%), or anything close to it, everyone has been warning about!
Months supply of homes for the last three Octobers:
ReplyDelete10/07: 7.50
10/06: 7.32
10/05: 3.44
10/04: 1.54
10/03: 2.14
10/02: 2.34
10/01: 2.60
10/00: 2.32
10/99: 3.47
10/98: 4.08
10/97: 7.85
Sorry, but the months' supply of homes is still on an upward trend, albeit slowing.
"Honestly: where are those thousands of SES's and GS-15's and Arnold & Porter associates when you need them?"
ReplyDeletePerhaps you haven't tried buying in the District on an associate's salary, much less a GS-15. Let's just say that it doesn't matter how much you make--if you're middle class (which SES, GS-15 and firm associates are, albeit upper middle class) and want to extract any sort of value from your primary residence, the District is still an awful place to buy. As has been the case for several years, you're better off renting and investing elsewhere your downpayment and what you would have to spend on a mortgage for a place equivalent to your happy rental.
anon 10:50
ReplyDeleteMonths supply of homes WHERE?
The numbers compare to 1997 which was not a hot or cold market.
And I agree that 7.5 is not much higher than 7.3. When I looked at the graphs every jurisdiction was down YOY except Prince William, which may have skewed the numbers.
Where did you get your data?
btw - the person who commented on seasonality really needs to look at the 3 yr graphs. They show the trend.
Except that you can't necessarily get the home you want by renting. Rental inventory /= sale inventory. So if you're the kind of person who nickles and dimes, knock yourself out.
ReplyDeleteanon 10:50
ReplyDeleteMonths supply of homes WHERE?
The numbers are for the District only, and are calculated by dividing the total number of houses listed by the total number of sales, for each Oct since 1997 according to data on MRIS.com
anon 12:04
ReplyDeleteI am talking about the inventory charts (3yr) for Northern Virginia. Anyone looking at those graphs sees the trend is down everywhere with the exception of PW and, possibly, Fairfax City.
Numbers for the District are for the District. Did you even look at NOVA?
From what I saw this year on nvfh.com and virginia mls, inventory did not peak out quite as high as last year in sheer numbers. So, yes you are correct on that.
ReplyDeleteOverall inventory being slightly off a historical amount still leaves NOVA in 2007 with a ton of inventory. Plus, it is in NOVA where builders are building the most, especially PWC.
Also, look at the months' supply of homes for each jurisdiction this year versus last year:
Fairfax
10/2007: 10.35
10/2006: 7.31
Arlington
10/2007: 6.08
10/2006: 6.07
Alexandria
10/2007: 6.61
10/2006: 5.63
Loudon
10/2007: 11.89
10/2006: 10.23
PWC
10/2007: 17.21
10/2006: 10.99
source: mris.com
As you can see, months' supply is up everywhere, with the further out areas being up the most. Arlington and Alexandria are holding up best for NOVA, which coincides with the fact that desirable areas of the District are holding up similarly.
Below are months' supply for various zip codes in the District:
20008
10/07: 5.14
10/06: 6.08
20015
10/07: 3.12
10/06: 3.70
20032
10/07: 11.92
10/06: 5.33
20019
10/07: 12.50
10/06: 5.30
As you can see from the District zip code stats, areas like Cleveland Park and Chevy Chase still have less than a six month supply of homes, whereas areas like Anacostia and Deanwood have rapidly growing supplies.
The broader trend for the metro area rights now appears that the less desirable areas are being impacted the most with the more desirable areas impacted less. My theory is that as the decline moves on, the more desirable areas will also be impacted to some extent, but that is still unknown.