Sunday, May 07, 2006

Recognizing an Asset Bubble


"While Mr. Greenspan happily puts himself out there as the leading economic forecaster and wise man, he also contends that bubbles can't be recognized until they burst. That's like saying you can't tell that your house is on fire just because smoke is billowing from the windows; you have to wait until it bursts into flames. The truth is bubbles are easily recognizable well in advance of bursting, but we cannot know when they will burst." [the Demise of the Dollar, Addison Wiggin]

Last year we bubbleheads saw the smoke and correctly inferred that the house was on fire [there is a housing bubble]. Now, the flames are apparent in the bubble markets. Still, many in the housing industrial complex refuse to see the flames that are engulfing the house.

5 comments:

  1. That gives new meaning to this Talking Heads song:

    Burning Down the House

    Watch out you might get what you're after
    Cool baby strange but not a stranger
    I'm an ordinary guy
    Burning down the house

    Hold tight wait 'til the party's over
    Hold tight we're in for nasty weather
    There has got to be a way
    Burning down the house

    Here's your ticket pack your bag; time for jumpin' overboard
    Transportation is here
    Close enough but not too far, baby you know where you are
    Fightin' fire with fire

    All wet hey you might need a raincoat
    Shakedown thieves walking in broad daylight
    Three hundred sixty five degrees
    Burning down the house

    It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
    Gonna come in first place
    People on their way to work say baby what did you expect
    Gonna burst into flame
    Go ahead

    My house S'out of the ordinary
    That's right Don't want to hurt nobody
    Some things sure can sweep me off my feet
    Burning down the house

    No visible means of support and you have not seen nothing yet
    Everything's stuck together
    I don't know what you expect staring into the TV set
    Fighting fire with fire

    Burning down the house
    Burning down the house
    Burning down the house

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  2. that is bullshit..greeny could have put his foot down ..fed is also a bank regulator...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Interesting site. Anyone remember at the top of the Japanese real estate bubble they began offering 100 year mortgages. California is now offering 50 year mortgages.

    About 2 1/2 years ago a small townhouse community went up by where we live. Every unit was before the began for approx. 450k.

    After they were built they went on the market for 799K. I checked yesterday. 3 units up for sale. 2 at 699K and one that had never been lived in (unable to rent?)is 650K or best offer.

    I am very glad we waited.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "About 2 1/2 years ago a small townhouse community went up by where we live. Every unit was before the began for approx. 450k.

    After they were built they went on the market for 799K. I checked yesterday. 3 units up for sale. 2 at 699K and one that had never been lived in (unable to rent?)is 650K or best offer.

    I am very glad we waited. "

    That's because those "townhouse communities" are horrible. Why the fuck would anybody live in one?

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Why the fuck would anybody live in one?"

    I've come to beleive that sterile, souless communities appeal to people who lack vision, both for themselves and their society.

    But that's *just* my opinon.

    bryce

    ReplyDelete