Wednesday, August 09, 2006

BubbleSphere Roundup

A huge congratulations to Ben Jones on his interview with MSNBC. Ben's The Housing Bubble Blog is the leading housing bubble blog. Great interview!

A hearty welcome to Florida Paradise Lost blog. The blogger out of Tampa writes "Will Florida ever become an affordable place to live again? Only time will tell, and you'll be able to read about the journey (to sanity, or maybe not) right here"

Housing Panic declares Dubai, United Arab Emirates to be the epicenter of the world housing bubble.


  1. I understand the housing market often brings out the worst in people and some kind of censorship is needed when running such a blog dealing with the housing market.

    Yet, Mr. Jones censors almost all comments which don’t toe the party line of an imminent housing crash. Especially now that “Summer Crash of 2006” hasn’t materialized as planned in certain areas of the country like the Phoenix Metro.

  2. I have heard Ben does that too.

    However, Phoenix has many issues - as has been discussed, housing doesn't crash overnight, and Phoenix has over 20,000 homes for sale. Phoenix and San Diego and Miami all seem to be in the same boat, as far as the articles I read , and that boat is sinking.

  3. Anon at 12:17

    I would be interested in reading your blog for a contrary viewpoint.

  4. I don't have one.

  5. I don't know Ben to censor - certainly not to the extent David does.


    Expect more of these types of stories...

  7. House Broke

    Millions of Americans bought into the real estate boom with adjustable mortgages and home equity loans. Now rising interest rates are forcing them into agonizing financial choices.

    from Newsweek (link above)

  8. anonymous 12:37 said,

    "Phoenix has over 20,000 homes for sale."

    Well, actually Phoenix has 52,600+ homes for sale.

    The Phoenix crash has occurred. From 40% annual housing price increases to 0% constitutes a crash in my book. through the next couple of years we'll see negative returns yearly.

  9. My phx homes have declined about 8-9-10% since peak (approx 1 yr ago.)

    We'll see what further (if any) decline is in the future.

    Tuff to complain when they appreciated 40+% in a year however.

    I'm not selling...I just refied into conv 30 yr loans for the long haul so price is not terribly important for me today.

  10. I think that all the paper gains of the past could be lost. Even Ben thinks it won't be so bad. But if it is even the fixed rate people will all be upside down. Hope they don't have to move.

  11. gary said:
    "Hope they don't have to move."

    The way you say it, it sure sounds like you do. What would possess someone to wish bad on others as you are doing?

  12. Soon there will be 1,000 condos for every week in a year coming online in Washington. Look out below -- the white elephant is about to take a 52,000 unit dump.


  13. Lance,

    You do have some compassion, amazing!

  14. ben's blog is boring and he censors every comment

    housingpanic and bubblemeter are my favorites - freewheeling and not paranoid like ben

  15. David, the word you were looking for is "hearty", not "hardy". No biggie.

    You strive to remain anonymous, while Ben Jones appears on TV. When are we going to see you on at least a local station?

  16. "From 40% annual housing price increases to 0% constitutes a crash in my book."

    That's not a crash. That's a flattening. All that's happened is a decrease in the derivative of prices. Now, I do believe that, in this case, the flattening will turn into a sharp decline. But it would be worth looking at the marginal asking prices. Are there some Phoenix houses that you could buy today for not much more than 2003-2004?

  17. David said...

    Thanks for the lunch offers. I do need to retain my anonimyty (sp?)

    Hopefully, I'll post later today.

    August 09, 2006 11:01 AM

  18. Posted by David in May 2005:

    " The bubble will burst soon

    Behold the bubble is about to pop. The bubble will pop (price declines) within the next 12 months.

    1) People are stretching to their limits to buy (look at how many IOs and ARMS)
    2) Lending practices will tighten given Fed's reccomendations
    3) Greenspan just used the term 'bubble'
    4) The foriegn buying of loans is slowing
    5) More public awareness of the housing bubble situation. See the increasing number of articles referencing the bubble (use a Google or Lexis Nexis news search)

    posted by David @ 6:09 AM"

  19. Not the Real DavidAugust 10, 2006 10:18 AM

    And I was right. HousingTracker shows lower prices in May 06 than August 05, so housing prices began a decline within the time frame that I claimed.

  20. "so housing prices began a decline within the"

    To which of the national housing markets are you referring?

  21. "Are there some Phoenix houses that you could buy today for not much more than 2003-2004?"

    No. Not in the area where I own (85205/district 4 schools). Not even close.

  22. Let me add that prices peaked last year about this time with *homes today selling about 8-10% below that high.
    *85205/District 4 schools.

  23. Lets see what happens this winter, it's gonna get real bad.

  24. "Let's just wait another few months"

    Ah, the bubblehead credo!

  25. Keep drinking the koolade your housingheads!

  26. shows that prices are down 4% on year over year basis for July. this is our first yoy decline during the bubble.

    we're on the way to more declines this fall.

  27. Thought for the day:

    Happiness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in

    Mahatma Gandhi

  28. Get with the program, Lance:

    The internet is a great place for shut-ins and recluses to have their voices heard. A quick search for personal websites turns up 6.1 billion results. That means every person on earth, even Oom!xau D!kooloo the Bushman from the Kalahari desert, has a website. You probably have several websites of your own you're completely unaware of. For the most part, personal webpages go unnoticed by the masses. But a few of the lucky ones get huge underground followings and their owners eventually go on to mediocre writing positions with small-market periodicals (I could be so lucky).

    Getting noticed, or even Farked is a huge honor in the world of personal websites. The best way to get your little corner of the interweb any type of attention is to write essays about things you don't like. Sounds backwards and crazy, but this is a backwards, crazy world we're living in. But you can't just write, "I hate President Bush..." you need to employ rage. Instead of saying, "Microsoft has some pretty crappy products," try saying, "Microsoft, and it's high-leader Hitler Gates, has products that could only be shittier if they were digested inside an elephant's stomach, shit out, allowed to fester in the African sun for two weeks, then consumed by a dung beetle, then shit out again onto my computer." See how easy it is? To make your life even easier, I created an internet rage essay template. It's easy to use, tastes great, and will save you time and energy. Simply replace all references to "persons or things" with the object of your hatred, like the housing markets. The incoherent nature, rambling run-on sentences, and belittling of those people who support what you so violently hate will only lend credibility to your image as the bad-boy of the internet.

    You know what I hate? This thing and or person who I disagree with on an ideological level. Oh sure, said thing or person might be good enough for Johnny Fuckface and his cheerleading, pill-popping bulemic girlfriend, and maybe they enjoy this person or thing while they're cruising in Johnny's Camaro, looking for a good spot for him to date rape her, but not me. Fuck that shit. I'm special because I rage against the machinations of what is popular. I could pretend to enjoy this strip-mall, NASCAR loving tripe, but I haven't fucked my sister and my mouth contains all of my original adult teeth. It's not so much that I think this object of my rage deserves to die, it's more or less my personal belief, being a good judge of what is good, that because this person or thing is in direct conflict with my political beliefs and my beliefs as to what qualifies as something not worth being used to gather from around my anus the last few dingleberries of a corn-and-beer shit. Honestly I'd rather watch a bucket filled with kittens be tossed into a blender filled with feces and donkey semen than to have to deal with crap like this thing and or person. When this person and or thing ceases to be popular, or even better, when all those involved in this train-wreck are dead, the world will be a much, much better place.

    See how easy that was? With a little luck, you'll be raking in the bucks from t-shirt sales and may even be asked to comment for an obscure pop-culture show on public access.

  29. anon 3:40 ... this isn't my blog ... did you maybe mean to address this post to David? ... ie., the blog owner "writing essays about things he doesn't like"?

  30. Yes, I meant David, with you being the {insert rant target here} object of hatred for the shut-ins.

  31. David--
    Surely you saw DC proper prices dropped YoY in MRIS? Avg drop of 2.3%, median drop of 3.45%, sales down 21%, DOM up 82%. Nice.

  32. page loaded like this was still the top post, please ignore...