Monday, August 28, 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto Aims For Bubblicious Miami

How about those construction cranes building condos in the Miami area?

46 comments:

  1. I hope you are not revelling in a possible natural disaster.

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  2. Nope. I hope it weakens into a depression.

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  3. Hi David,

    I just got back from vacation in Miami. There were a lot of condos..many vacant with price reduction signs. Lots of cranes also. It is very interesting to see how real estate has been such a driver in other urban areas. Even some of the worst looking areas(and from long time residents of the area worse places to live) have some of the largest projects going up.

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  4. anon,

    Thanks for your ground observations.

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  5. I was reading somewhere that schools in FL had a unexpected drop in enrollment. And rental truck rates leaving FL are higher than rates coming in. I think the cost of living is disuading folks from moving to FL (or possibly the hurricanes). Its interesting how the price of real estate has some many unattended consequences because it impacts decision making of average folks. For example, I wonder if we will see a decline in the birth rate in the US because of it. We are definitely living in interesting times.
    NOVA Fence Sitter

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  6. At this point Ernesto may be the Flippers only hope!

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  7. Not too funny patch. Glad your thoughts are with the people of Florida.

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  8. My thoughts are with the people of Florida; they'll be glad to see the investors go too. Even if they're riding a wave out of town...

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  9. I do not agree with VA Investor much, but this post is something that definitely does not belong on a housing bubble blog.

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  10. "I do not agree with VA Investor much, but this post is something that definitely does not belong on a housing bubble blog."

    Hurricanes affect the housing marke in Miami.

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  11. Why isn't it relevant? The old folks that moved to Florida on fixed incomes can no longer afford to live there, because of the bubble and the flippers. These hurricanes are driving property insurance rates through the roof and making housing even more unaffordable. Should I continue?

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  12. "Tropical Storm Ernesto Aims For Bubblicious Miami"

    This post is highly inappropriate.

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  13. Today's hurricane area affected headlines...

    "But like so many others, the deal was derailed when he discovered the only coverage he could get was through the state-run plan and would cost him $400 on top of his $1,800-a-month mortgage. Now, he and his wife plan to look for a house that's 30 percent cheaper — a budget that likely will price him out of the neighborhood, forcing him to drive, instead of walk, to work."

    http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060826/BUSINESS01/608260323/1066/BUSINESS01

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  14. Well, it's simply a factual post that, indeed, Ernesto is headed for Miami, which is certainly bubblicious. IMHO, if you see any malice in that comment, it's of your own making. And David actually asks an interesting question--how are all those construction cranes handled during an approaching storm? Ernesto looks to hold a greater danger of flooding than winds, as it's a pretty weak tropical storm right now, but how do they secure large, difficult-to-move equipment during an oncoming storm that has the risk of high winds that could move or topple some of that equipment?

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  15. Homeowners insurance within 10-20 miles of the beach in Florida for SFH are now over $5000 a year- even at inland locations getting affordable insurance is impossible.

    The Florida 'magnet' is over for now and perhaps forever. I know three people locally in Connecticut who moved back here last year.

    Case 1 Extended family moved to Port Charlotte area 17 years ago, wiped out my Charley- moved back to Enfield CT

    Case 2- Gay couple lived in Ft. Lauderdale 25 years- moved back to Connecticut last year- in the states 'quiet corner' to Woodstock

    Case 3 Next door neighbors lived near Sarasota for 7 years. Moved back to CT- tired of the hurricanes, costs and crime.

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  16. VA_INVESTOR was trying to come across as intelligent with her investment savvy. Well, I feel sorry for her because she owns investment property in Florida and knows her insurance is about to go up AGAIN or get cancelled. Such a smart investor you are.

    However, this is not a laugh in your face. There are unexpected things that can happen and Real Estate does not always go up or equal a can't lose investment.

    I will buy RE when the numbers make sense using a fixed mortgage with 20% down.

    BTW, I live in FL and renting for much less than owning before taxes or insurance are factored in. I sold in the summer of 05 and could not be happier.

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  17. anon. 3:36,

    Don't lose any sleep over me. I won't mention any numbers because I'll be accused of bragging, but I bought distress properties in Naples starting in 1993.

    Suffice it to say, I won't be underwater (pun intended) anytime soon.

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  18. Said: "I bought distress properties in Naples starting in 1993."

    I'm glad to see there is still some good hearted people in the world willing to rescue others in distress during a manmade disaster for pennies on the dollar...

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  19. There is a difference between being one of many at an auction and hoping for that auction to occur.

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  20. va of course you won't mention it.

    Why open your mouth and remove all doubt about how under water you are?

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  21. Said: "There is a difference between being one of many at an auction and hoping for that auction to occur."

    Is that like being a hyena eating at the carcass, and trying to put the blame on the buzzards circling overhead?

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  22. Gosh, prices have just started to drop. Already underwater? That would be a bad place.

    I know you probably want me there, for whatever reason. Just like patch wants a hurricane.

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  23. There is a difference between being one of many at an auction and hoping for that auction to occur.

    None of us hope for that.

    I have family in Florida and we're currently making calls to ensure that those who are not fully mobile can be evacuated, so I certainly have never wanted a hurricane strike in Floria. It looks like they will be outside the area effected by Ernesto... but hurricans turn as they want to turn, not how anyone hopes. As someone who has lived in Florida I am well aware of the stress a "possible" hurricane strike presents to the population.

    But this topic is relevant and appropriate. Ernesto *could* effect Florida insurance rates. Its looking to be on course to be a "coast runner." A coast runner doen't hurt people (usually), it just damages a *lot* of property by the water surge.

    I wish those in Florida the best. I hope the hurricane keeps turning and weakens (instead of the predicted strengthening).

    Can we get back to talking about the hurricane's potential impact on the housing market? Since nothing we do or say can possibly effect the storm's strength or course... Let's talk housing. :)

    Remember: Ride out a 2, flee from a 3.

    Neil

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  24. patch,

    If you can't see the difference, I can't explain it to you.

    Are all you guys waiting for "the crash" to swoop in on real estate buzzards or hyena's?

    My "name" is not ambiguous about what I do.

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  25. If you're in denial that there's not a slew of investors in Florida right now praying to the porcellian goddess for a hurricane to wipe away their bad housing investment woes, then you're truly delusional...

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  26. "My "name" is not ambiguous about what I do."

    Neither is mine, maybe you should Google "patch tuesday" and report back with the most likely results...

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  27. With Va_InvestorAugust 28, 2006 7:38 PM

    I'm with Va_Investor. This post is really pretty disturbing.

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  28. Like the mainstream news media, bloggers need something to talk about, and I think that was David's intent.

    To keep this post relevent to housing, MSN Money has an article titled Insurance bills as big as mortgages. They write, "Following Hurricane Katrina, insurers ratchet up rates 100%, 200% and even 400% on coastal homeowners -- or refuse to write policies at all. Inland, meanwhile, many rates are dropping."

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  29. Well, some on this site do want to see people take a fall. You, me, or anyone with any success will do - particularly if that success in any way comes from Real Estate.

    Chalk it up to jealousy. Others truly just want to navigate the waters and buy a house that is affordable.

    The difference is that the former actually wish disaster on people and hope to score what is "rightfully" theirs as a result.

    The latter just hope that this crazy market evens out and some reasonably priced housing becomes available. Maybe more gov't incentives for affordable housing to be built. But not a 1929, or a dust bowl or ... a hurricane.

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  30. the one problem I have with the florida residents is they know they are going to get hurricanes, yet they still dont move. There are reasons people didnt have houses on the beach through the early years of this country.

    I think they need to remove all federally funded insurance plans from our country, let public insurance provide.

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  31. the real bob,

    There is a cap on the state insurance pool coverage. It won't rebuild a mansion. I believe it is 250K.

    Is the same not true for all flood insurance - not just from hurricanes? What about earthquake coverage.

    States like floida could lose a huge tax base if this insurance was not available. No insurance equals no morgage loans equals no housing market.

    The huge premium increases that we have witnessed are a result of these state pools better allocating the risk- i.e. putting more of the real cost on the homeowner.

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  32. States like floida could lose a huge tax base if this insurance was not available.

    It should be the Florida taxpayers who pay for it through state taxes. I see no reason why the taxpayers in all the other 49 states should have to pay for Florida over and over again. (And Californians should pay for California... you get the picture.)

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  33. I have insurance in Florida through the state pool. How do you know that FL is not footing the cost?

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  34. The construction cranes will be fine. The booms are allowed to freewheel like giant weather vanes. The long end of the boom acts as a tail, keeping the counterweights facing into the wind.

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  35. "Neither is mine, maybe you should Google "patch tuesday" and report back with the most likely results..."

    In terms of a career; Patch Tuesday is the information age equivalent of a janitor.

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  36. va_investor said...
    "I hope you are not revelling in a possible natural disaster."

    "There is a difference between being one of many at an auction and hoping for that auction to occur."

    "I know you probably want me there, for whatever reason. Just like patch wants a hurricane."

    Ok David, disengage the bubblemaker weather making machine, at least hook this thing hard right. I wonder, is this a “self fulfilled” weather event now that you’ve leaked it on your blog?

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  37. Where are the postings and the comments about the San Andreas Fault on the West coast? If Earnesto is a relevant topic, so are fault lines in the Earth's crust. Don't ignore potential volcanic activity either: Washington State is home to at least one volcano AND at least one bubble market.

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  38. You need to take precipitation levels into account as well. A dry spell could lead to wildfires; causing grief for already troubled bubble markets.

    Don't forget that high levels of precipitation can lead to mudslides...

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  39. Oh, and terror targets like NYC are legitimate bubble topics too. Did you see those world trade towers come down? What did that do to nearby condo values?! Now, how about all those people who live near the Pentagon?

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  40. Take a look at this image from usgs.gov and you'll see why you need to start tracking tektonic plate movement in relation to the housing markets in California.

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  41. Florida gave us the Bush-Co Admin. through their fraudulent, crooked, and cooked elections. Brother Jeb made sure of that. Thus if Florida were wiped out entirely in a Cat 6, it would be justice for the damage they caused to all the rest of us US citizens.

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  42. Come on David, we're waiting for the posting on the San Andreas fault and its impact on CA housing markets.

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  43. Yawn...

    Ernesto will now only be a TS as it goes over Florida. I've been through a TS... Yawn. A little wind and an incredible amount of rain.

    Some of the posts on this topic have been very interesting.

    David: you should filter anon posts IMHO.
    Neil

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  44. I live in Southern California,were ready for a serious quake. We need something to run all those flippers out. Plus think of all the bargin basement prices.

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  45. NASA tracks Near Earth Asteroids via the "Near Earth Asteroid Tracker" or "NEAT".

    http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/

    "We now believe there are between 500 and 1,000 near-Earth asteroids larger than one kilometer (about 0.6 miles) in diameter."

    David, please start posting on potential asteroid impacts and how they will affect bubble markets.

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  46. http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/business/15385628.htm

    "How could her homeowners association’s insurance premium increase from $126,000 to $879,000?"

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