Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Butterfly At Home Depot

Sunday shopping: Lovely Butterfly @ Home Depot

15 comments:

  1. va_investor said...
    robert,

    Of course the absolute number is rising. We are in a downturn. What is relevant to me are % in default, year by year over the past 30 yrs.


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    this is from the blocked thread.

    so i guess the "permanently high plateau" theory is out the window??

    or is this the "leveling off" before the next "run up" in prices??

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  2. I never ascribed to the "permanently high plateau" theory. My belief, as stated many times, is that real estate cycles.

    The last cycle was about 15yrs from peak to peak. We had a 5yr run-up, followed by a dip and 5 yrs of flat prices. Then we saw modest gains for 5 yrs and big run-ups for the next 5 (2000-2005).

    Prices dropped from 1990 to 1993, then started climbing back. We were back to 1990 peak levels by 1996 or 97. In my experience the drop was up to 25% for sf and up to 40% for condo's.

    I believe we have already seen some of the expected drop. These are just my personal observations.

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  3. David - your butterfly picture just demonstrates how much you hate DC and hate America.

    ;) VHB

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  4. What do you guys think of the economic data out today? I dont see any way the fed can pause at next weeks meeting with inflation #'s like that!!

    Plus a rise in manufacturing sector just adds to this thought.

    Your thoughts on another 25 bps next week? Also, just because a pause is coming that does NOT mean a rate easing cycle is next? Everyone seems to think that. What if inflation data which is lagging from runup in energy costs only gets worse going into next year? They will have to raise again.

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  5. "Your thoughts on another 25 bps next week?"

    I have been predicting another 25bps for a while. Bernanke may raise rates 25bps but put out a statement basically saying that there is likely to be a pause at next meeting.

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  6. I'm telling you: put your money on healthcare.

    Study: More Americans too fat for X-rays, scans
    Obesity hurting accuracy of images, doctors say.

    Thursday, July 27, 2006; Posted: 2:12 a.m. EDT (06:12 GMT)

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- More and more obese people are unable to get full medical care because they are either too big to fit into scanners, or their fat is too dense for X-rays or sound waves to penetrate, radiologists reported Tuesday.

    http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/07/26/obesity.xrays.reut/index.html

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  7. I'm looking for a way to invest in mortuary services. Does anyone know if there a publicly traded funeral/mortuary company? Or a mutual fund that focuses on mortuary and related companies?

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  8. What will employment numbers look like this Friday?

    Job creation has been weak in Q2.

    I think it will continue to worsen,
    with the economic news that has gotten
    so much worse in July.

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  9. Chaos theory predicts the beat of that butterfly's wings will cause the housing bubble to collapse.

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  10. "I'm looking for a way to invest in mortuary services. Does anyone know if there a publicly traded funeral/mortuary company? Or a mutual fund that focuses on mortuary and related companies? "

    A whole lot of people will be dying when the sky falls, funeral homes will have their hands fill.

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  11. Two houses on the same north Valley street, similar in size and age, are for sale. One lists for $749,000 and the other for $775,000. A third house came on the market on the same street a few doors from the other two. The new listing was similar to the others in size and age but priced at $659,000.

    Reaction: outrage.

    "The neighbors were really mad," said Thomas Stornelli, principal of Global Network of Homes in Scottsdale. "They knocked on the door and asked, 'What are you thinking?' For a lot of people, their home equity is their bank. It's like taking money out of someone's bank, their retirement account. People (future buyers) are going to use that house as a comp, even if it doesn't have the same upgrades. It's going to leave a mark."

    The owners of the least- expensive home were equally upset. They were in the midst of a corporate relocation and wanted to sell quickly. Suddenly, angry neighbors were confronting them. One night, someone tore down their for-sale sign.

    http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0730emotional0730.html

    Protect the for-sale sign and pass the ammo!

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  12. That could never happen in DC. Everyone wants to live here.

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  13. How much real estate do you think that butterfly owns? It looks suspiciously like a get-rich-quick house-flipper. Why else would it be making trips to Home Depot?

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  14. "A whole lot of people will be dying when the sky falls, funeral homes will have their hands fill."

    The sky has already fallen in terms of the general population's health. Chronic (and self-induced) disease is the norm for the majority of people. A bubble in the mortality rate is building up...

    Hah! People treat their health like one big speculative eposide. Good luck with that one.

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