While reviewing David Lereah's power point presentations I found one titled 'Winding down to and Expansion' from October 2005 . Below is one of the images:
In October 2005, David Lereah chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, was busy calling the bubble believers 'chicken littles.' Many of the predictions espoused by the 'chicken littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. Inversely, David Lereah's predictions are becoming further and further divorced from reality. Mr. Lereah is an irresponsible cheerleading.
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This guy Lereah is something else. It's one thing to be absolutely wrong about the future of home prices (which he was and still is), but it's another thing to have gone on record calling your more intelligent opposition "chicken littles." How embarrassing for Lereah and the NAR.
ReplyDeleteAnd how embarrassing that they republish these documents now that it's more evident that they were completely wrong. It's almost like they want to chronicle their irresponsibility and foolishness for the anals of the housing bubble history books.
Incredible!!
As always, great work David.
Thanks John. Very sensible comments!
ReplyDeleteCheck out the paper money blog. Lereah is starting to backpedal.
ReplyDeleteOK - Someone wrote some profanity on another post and you keep those?
ReplyDeleteI try to delete everything I see that breaks teh blog rules. I am only one person.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=4a79d747-7d8e-4f8c-b148-7406d43ed67f&k=90938
ReplyDeletesame barber?
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=4a79d747-7d8e-4f8c-b148-7406d43ed67f&k=90938
ReplyDeletesame barber?
Well, today he said that the drop in existing home sales is at a rate that he had never seen before. A look of panic was in his face. Now, we all may have that look if the economy tanks, but he has it now. Tomorrow is the new home report, which should be another big time disappointment.
ReplyDeleteBut Lereah has been such a lying cheerleader for so long that I don't feel sorry that he has to backpedal. I feel sorry for all those who bought houses based upon his faulty, lying advice.
Here's a better economist,
ReplyDelete"The Biggest Slump in US Housing in the Last 40 Years"…or 53 Years?
"Well, today he said that the drop in existing home sales is at a rate that he had never seen before."
ReplyDeleteWhich he should have had a clue about because home sales increased at a rate we had never seen before. I suspect he receives his PhD in economics out of a Cracker Jack box. It simply amazes me...the number of people in economics or finance who are supposedly brilliant, but don't have the first clue about predicting shifts in the area they should know about most. I sometimes refer to it as the "Stockholm Syndrome" because they have fallen in love with their occupation/industry to the point where they can't see anything bad about it. And how many economists accurately predict recessions? It's a special breed, that's for sure.
the typo in that first comment is (probably unintenionally) the funniest thing I've read in quite some time. I believe it's spelled "annals." Although probably more appropriate as it appliest to the quality of Lereah's work.
ReplyDeleteHey, did any one else notice that Lereah's latest presentation "Reality Check" has bubbles in the background?
ReplyDelete"Hey, did any one else notice that Lereah's latest presentation "Reality Check" has bubbles in the background? "
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing this out!
Excellent digging David. Keep it up...let's hope the WaPo, who does peruse your blog, picks up on this little gem and pursues it further. I'd like for somebody to ask him about why his "anti-bubble" reports and slides such as this one are slowly being disproved with every bit of data released and why any of his predictions are any more accurate than those "chicken littles" to which he refers. But that will never happen.
ReplyDeleteIrving Fisher 1929 DaveyBoy Lereah Summer 2005.
ReplyDeleteYou made hsitory boy.
Now as prices continue their nosedive when will the public backlash start intensifying.
Do buyers of the last 12-18 months have some recourse to sue the NAR and Lereah for their statements while facts speak for themselves?
ReplyDelete‘They’re Taking Lower Offers And ‘Are Happy About It’
ReplyDeleteThe Boston Globe has this update from Massachusetts. “Home prices in Massachusetts fell 3.5 percent in July, the largest decline in 13 years, as the slowdown in the real estate market finally led sellers to cut their prices. That decline was the biggest since the state’s housing market was struggling in the wake of the banking woes of the early 1990s.”
“The number of condominium units sold in July tumbled by 21.4 percent, driving prices down 4.1 percent, the biggest decrease over the course of a year since December 1998.”
And Lereah was saying what?????????
ReplyDeleteThe Boston Globe:
In Massachusetts, price declines add to the confusion among buyers afraid of overpaying, said Mark Gibbons, an agent in Stoughton. "There's concern they don't want to lose any equity if they want to sell a couple years down the road," he said.
Nancy Richards, an agent in Belmont, said sellers' attitudes have changed noticeably from last year, when they were "still clinging to hopes" of selling at record prices. This year, "they're taking offers that are lower and are happy about it."
But Newton agent Rona Fischman said many are "still in denial." The steep drop in July sales "tells me we're in the first year of the price declines," said Fischman. "Sellers who really have to sell are waking up and smelling the coffee. There's more coffee coming."
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2006/08/24/market_uneasehome_prices_fall_35/?page=full
miguel said...
ReplyDeleteHere's a better economist,
"The Biggest Slump in US Housing in the Last 40 Years"…or 53 Years?
I have to say that the homebuilders and the mortgage companies are being a lot more honest about the current state of the housing market than the Realtors are.
James,
ReplyDeleteThey have disclosure and SEC to deal with. Along with Shareholders and the market.
NAR has only has members' self interest to protect.
MY $0.02.
Buying a condo is dumb, buying for location a detached house is extremely intelligent. Especially in the NW d.c and Montgo.co areas, historically they have held their prices. Another place where extremely good deals exist is the up and comming, long forgoten areas of Western Md. and W. V.A.
ReplyDelete