Friday, August 18, 2006

Club Year Over Year Declines in Median Sales Price


Many jurisdication have already joined club year over year median sales price declines. Many more will join in the coming six months.

Which counties / states / places have thus far reported Year over Year (YoY) declines in median sales price?

Let me get started:

Place: Washington, DC proper
Housing Units Type: All Housing Units
Time Period: July 06 vs July 05
Percentage Change: -3.45%
From: $429,850
To: $415,000
Total Units Sold: - 21%
Source: MRIS

Please provide information in the above format if possible. If you don't have all the info that ok as well. Thanks.

117 comments:

  1. Per NAR,
    Minneapolis, Detroit and Edison went -ve in Q2.

    http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL06Q2T.xls/$FILE/REL06Q2T.xls


    Per Dataquick,
    San Diego
    http://dqnews.com/RRSCA0806.shtm

    San Mateo, San Francisco, Marin Counties went -ve in July.
    http://dqnews.com/RRBay0806.shtm

    Reno down 10% in July
    http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060818/BIZ12/608180364/1071

    Sacramento you already mentioned in the previous post.

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  2. Bubbleheads may be surprised to learn that at least one housinghead (i.e., me!) thinks that this is a good thing! It means that there is more affordable housing being made available for first time buyers and others who have been "priced out" by recent price increases. However, it shouldn't be assumed to mean that the value of existing housing stock has gone done. The best example of this is DC itself where from what I read on this very post, the median prices of Single Family Homes has increased over the past year. DC is witnessing the end of the "build more condos" cycle. Lots and lots of condos aimed at first time buyers are coming on the market this year (and into next year as indicated by all the construction in places like 14th Street, the West End, and Columbia Heights among others.) It makes sense that this will lower the median sales price ... Without lowering the value of current homeowners' properties. This is a case where we can have our cake and eat it too. Existing homeowners are happy, as are soon-to-be homeowners. The "system" has worked. High, 'in the sky', prices have incentivized developers to go out there and build and meet demand. This has produced a slew of new much-more-affordable condos for people previously locked out. Everything is as it should be. The only regret we all should have is that future developers will be frightened off by all the talk of gloom and doom and not make the investment bringing the prospective homeowners their more affordable homes. Yes, I know there are those who have rented forever and will rent forever who will seek to find something wrong with any scenario that means being in one's own home rather than a rental is somehow better, but I sincerely hope that most of the bubbleheads out there, the ones who really wish they could be in their own home, realize that the "system" really does work for them too ... as evidenced by the falling price of a median home in DC.

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  3. "It makes sense that this will lower the median sales price ... Without lowering the value of current homeowners' properties. This is a case where we can have our cake and eat it too."

    Weekend wishful thinking, love lance.

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  4. Lance is about the dumbest person who I have ever read defending the housing market.

    "It makes sense that this will lower the median sales price ... Without lowering the value of current homeowners' properties. This is a case where we can have our cake and eat it too."

    Do you know absolutely nothing about financial markets? Or maybe you are one of these "housing is different than all other markets" type people.

    How can the median sales price go down without lowering existing housing units? What do you think the value of existing units is based on? What do you think that appraisals are based on? Don't you think that buyers look to see the most recent sales prices before deciding how much to offer on a house.

    And what about refinancings? How are people going to increae their HELOCs or lock into a fixed-rate mortgages if their appraised value decreases.

    One of my best friends is an finance executive at Pulte and by coincidence works in Washington DC, he told me that the situation there is "absolutely brutal" and detiorating badly. They are trying guage when they will hit the bottom and how many people they will have to fire in the meantime.

    The whole housing boom is really

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  5. just a mirage created by the Fed's artificially low interest rates and easy lending policies for exotic mortgages from mortgage lenders.

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  6. Lance,

    No cake for you- next

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  7. I do have to hand it to Lance, though. It does take balls to say something like that knowing what you will get in return. Alternatively, it could just be complete idiocy and/or he may simply enjoy punishment.

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  8. I meant to say an "inflationary" mirage.

    I have never heard a housing boom apologist claim that sales volume AND sales prices do not impact the value of a home. That is a new and completely idiotic line of thought.

    Unless he means that there is a warm and fuzzy value that you get from owning a house that can't be captured economically.

    I really can't get over what a stupid posting that Lance put out there. At least say that this is a short-term correction and that prices will start to rise again next year. I can respect a difference of opinion - but complete idiocy is different.

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  9. I gave up on lance after reading a few his posts a while back.

    He should take a vacation with fritz & va_investor.
    OR
    Start investing in real estate as the prices have started to come down.

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  10. And by the way lance has an "MBA".

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  11. "It makes sense that this will lower the median sales price ... Without lowering the value of current homeowners' properties. This is a case where we can have our cake and eat it too."

    Weekend wishful thinking, love lance.


    Actually, mathematically Lance is correct.

    In a market where a large amount a lower cost housing enters the pool, one can theoretically have appreciation of high end housing *and* increased affordability. This of course assumes that the new housing does not "dilute" the value of higher cost housing.

    That is a market I would *love* to see. It would mean that enough housing was being built to compensate for population growth.

    Alas, that doesn't explain today's market nor the sales drop. Maybe I'm pessimistic as I live in California and you can see prices drop every two weeks and sellers are getting desperate. If DC isn't there... yet... It will be by Christmas. :(

    I don't want a recession, but economics must get back in balance. I did a previous long post on my thoughts of the economics.

    Neil

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  12. Lance, you don't really claim to have an MBA, do you? It has to be from like Phoenix on-line or Chico State.

    I am a CPA, a CFA and have my MBA from the University of Michigan - 1996. I am also a portfolio manager for a $600 million hedge fund-of-funds.

    And I am not a renter, I bought a house in 2003 and spent my entire life savings plus a nice mortgage to do so. I have put so many hedges into my personal portfolio to protect against a housing market decline, that I am now negatively correlated to the overall markets.

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  13. Nick said:
    "How can the median sales price go down without lowering existing housing units?"

    I guess you never heard of Levittown? The glut of condos going on the market in DC significantly changes the mix of condo vs houses. (I.e., as a percentage of the whole, there are a lot more condos now priced at cheaper prices than there are houses which intuitively sell for more.) Thus, the median price overall goes down. Is this really that difficult a concept to understand?

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  14. Nick asked:
    "And what about refinancings? How are people going to increae their HELOCs or lock into a fixed-rate mortgages if their appraised value decreases."

    Just because some developer has put on the market a less expensive condo in some previously undesireable neighborhood that is cheaper than your well furnished condo in a desireable neighborhood, doesn't mean the value of your condo is going to drop. Just the opposite... Now, your condo will go up because there is development going on in neighborhoods in your city where there used to be just crime. It's a win-win.

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  15. Yes, it is a difficult concept to understand because it is called data mining. Look, you are one of these cheerleaders and I am trying to look at this from a fundamental quantitative standpoint.

    Your basis is flawed anyway, because home buyers and investors can substitute the purchase of a single-family house with a condo if the price differential is as great as you claim.

    Have you even done an analysis of the sales data to compare the sales mix in July 2005 vs. July 2006.

    While condos went down more than homes, numbers are down for both.

    And worse, you are ignoring the fact that builders (and even some homeowners) have had to offer incentives like free upgrades and paid closing costs - that did not happen in 2005. These discounts are not factored into the top-line sales numbers. My friend at Pulte told me that the discounts were approx 3% on average in 2006 Q-2.

    So, if the median single-family-home price declined by 1% YOY and then you tack on another 3% in discounts, that is a nominal loss of 4% YOY.

    In real terms, using the FED CPI rate of 4%, you are down 8% in real purchasing power.

    The numbers for condos would look much, much worse.

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  16. "have had to offer incentives like free upgrades and paid closing costs - that did not happen in 2005. These discounts are not factored into the top-line sales numbers. My friend at Pulte told me that the discounts were approx 3% on average in 2006 Q-2."

    Wait, I thought the real horror-show was the tight inventory, the waived home inspections, and the fact that bidding wars would start the moment a house went to market?

    So now you're saying that signs of moderation in the market are nauseating to you?

    Pick one to preach about its ills, then get off your high horse.

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  17. "Wait, I thought the real horror-show was the tight inventory, the waived home inspections, and the fact that bidding wars would start the moment a house went to market?"

    Anonymous,

    Are you confusing me with someone else? I never wrote anything about tight inventory or bidding wars. What are you talking about?

    I am the biggest housing (and equity) bear in the world and have been for the past two years at least. In fact, my portfolio is loaded with shorts on the builders and sub-prime lenders that I am now actually negatively correlated
    to the broader market.
    I have never once been bullish on housing. And I think the ugliness is just getting started - the ARM time-bomb is going to real blow things up.

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  18. Nick said...
    "Lance is about the dumbest person who I have ever read defending the housing market."

    NO, I WON'T HAVE THAT! There's a man in Colchester who's at least as dumb as Lance...

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  19. Nick, again, you are talking NEW construction ... i.e., the very stock I said is being produced to satisfy the unmet needs of people otherwise priced out. You are not talking existing housing.

    My friend at Pulte told me that the discounts were approx 3% on average in 2006 Q-2.

    Also, if you think condos are readily interchangeable for houses, then you buy on to the belief that people will quickly and gladly "take the bus" and "sell the car." It's not the same product and substitution isn't as automatic as you think. I think the root cause of your inability to understand the housing market is that you aren't recognizing the fact that there really isn't a housing market per se ... not even really at the local level. Real estate historically has been accorded its courts or law as well as body of law with remedies unique to it (such as "specific performance".) This is because the law (and society) recognized early on that each and every property is unique ... and not interchangeable. You can only have a "market", when the widgits being sold are interchangeable. You're trying to apply market theory to something that isn't really a market in the full sense of the word ... and as such, your theorizing isn't going to work here. Please think about what I have said. I mean it sincerely. And do some googling on the history of real estate law and the uniqueness of each property. You might start with googling the concept of "specific performance."

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  20. Dude, I've heard about people with an irrational attachment to their own home and its value - but you are way out there.

    First of all Pulte and the other builders are not building condos or affordable housing exclusively, especially not in D.C. They build lots and lots of McMansions and other so-called luxury housing as well. And that part of the market is getting as bad or worse as condos.

    I tried bringing some rational, high-level analysis from an investment professional into this discussion but all I am getting back is anger and irrational commentary on how unique each house is.

    I'm done - it was stupid to even bother with this.

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  21. By the way, I didn't use my friends real company. He works for a major homebuilder, but not Pulte - they were just the first one I could think of to use instead. I'll give you a hint, it has one of these tickers:

    TOL, LEN, CTX, DHI or BEA

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  22. Nick is the one throwing around the personal attacks, and it is Lance responding with calmness and setting forth his argument.

    Lance's argument seems to simply be that condo and single family purchasers are different groups with little to no overlapping. I am not sure I totally agree ... i.e., if condos dropped enough I can see someone looking to buy a townhouse move instead to a condo.

    But back to my point, which is that Nick is the one being rude here, not Lance. Nick, no one really cares where you got your MBA ok?

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  23. The bulk of Nick's posts were about himself. His friends, his employment, his friend's employment, his investment portfolio, where he went to school, on an on.

    Is something missing from your life, Nick?

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  24. In It for Long Haul? Might as Well Buy
    Though Rising, Rates Are Still a Bargain

    By Amy Hoak
    MarketWatch
    Saturday, August 19, 2006; Page F25

    www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/18/AR2006081800476.html

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  25. Actually, Nick's credentials are relevant. Do you know what it takes to earn a CFA? To me, it demonstrates a fundamental understanding of market dynamics and lends credibility.

    Lance - your posts this thread have just been silly. Now you are claiming there is no such thing as a real housing market. Sorry, but this discussion has to be based in commonly accepted conepts such as "markets." Getting abstract just seems desperate.

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  26. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  27. Thanks Anon. Irrational responses seem to be the norm whenever I lay out a sound argument ... And I take that as a good sign because people only react that way when there's an incongruety with what was prior to my post their basic beliefs. I.e., I have rocked the boat by making them think about something they can't rationally refute ... so, as human nature would have it, they react irrationally.

    Anon said:
    "Lance's argument seems to simply be that condo and single family purchasers are different groups with little to no overlapping."

    Actually, what you just said is not entirely the point I am trying to get across. Yes, I mean that was one part of it. But the more important point is more along the lines that in response to people being priced out, developers have unwittingly started providing more affordable housing to these same buyers. I say "unwittingly" because seeing what condos in some of the already gentrifying areas were going for, the developers started building similar ones in transitional neighborhoods pricing them at similar high prices as the other condos(i.e., the greed motive of Adam Smith) only to find that when they all got in the act they swamped the market and had to collectively lower their prices to sell their product ... hence unwittingly providing more affordable housing to the market place. At least in the mid-term, this also indirectly helps increase the value of existing condos in that these other condos are now in a city that is even more gentrified than before. Similar expamples could be made in regards to single family houses out in suburbia. The builders see a market in upscale homes in North Arlington and they build larger versions of them in Loudon county hoping to sell these for the same prices as the original houses in North Arlington but with the advantage of cheaper land costs thrown into their bottom line. But like the condo developers, once they all get into the act, the prices on these McMansions start to drop as they become more numerous and their prices start to accurately reflect their outlying locations. The drop in these prices doesn't affect the price of the original houses in North Arlington. And you could argue that if anything, these houses --- once the become priced appropriately (and affordably) --- help attract more people to the area which in turn makes the closer-in 1/2 acre property in North Arlington even more valuable than it was before the McMansions got built.

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  28. "Actually, Nick's credentials are relevant. Do you know what it takes to earn a CFA? "

    Actually, yes I do. Do you know what it takes to attend Chicago GSB?


    The CFA doesn't mean that Nick isn't a needy narcissist.

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  29. I will make the final decision on who is right or wrong - LANCE YOU ARE WRONG!!

    Let's stick to the topic at hand. Everytime Lance pipes in he takes this blog of on some tanget that simply distracts from the discussion at hand.

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  30. FYI Lance this is the topic-


    Club Year Over Year Declines in Median Sales Price

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  31. I have to think that condos and homes are substitutes on some very fundamental level, just as rentals and owner-occupied housing can be substitutes. When the price of one goes south, that has to shift the demand curve for the other inwards as is standard for substitute products. That is, if one could afford a condo for less money now than before, then why buy a home at existing prices. Of course, this isn't exact which simply speaks to the magnitude of the cross-price elasticity between these types of housing. My point is that this cross-price elasticity is not zero and is in fact positive since different types of housing must be substitutes not complements, so that a drop in one market cannot be good for the other segment of the market. My god, folks, read your econ 101. Lance, in my opinion, is loopy since I've never heard anyone argue that falling prices in one market bodes well for the value in another closely related market of substitutes. If you want to argue that condos and homes aren't substitutes, then good on yah, but you're nuts. Otherwise, basic economic theory gives you very clear predictions about where prices for homes will head (in direction, again, not magnitude.)

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  32. crispy and cole said:
    "Everytime Lance pipes in he takes this blog of on some tanget that simply distracts from the discussion at hand."

    you now have your rational explanation for why median prices are dropping in the District of Columbia (and surely elsewhere) while prices on existing homes are continuing to rise at traditional appreciation rates or better. How is that off topic? It doesn't fit the gloom and doom scenario you were hoping for? Sorry to "burst your bubble" LOL, I couldn't resist that pun!

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  33. First, as someone mentioned earlier, it is certainly possible for median prices to decline as new inexpensive condos get introduced, while the old houses still increase in value.

    Luckily, MRIS solves this issue by only looking at prices of resold homes. That way, they don't mess up the comparison by including those new cheap condos. That maintains the apples-to-apples comparison. It also means that Lance is wrong.

    From the bottom of the MRIS Washington DC page:

    "Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. - MLS Resale Data"

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  34. anon said:
    "Lance, in my opinion, is loopy since I've never heard anyone argue that falling prices in one market bodes well for the value in another closely related market of substitutes."

    AGAIN, that's not what I said! Please try to read what I have written and not read into it. I NEVER said that falling prices in one market bode well for the value in another market! For one thing, I said there is no such thing as a real estate "market" in the true sense of the word. And, again, what I have described is the relationship between new construction in marginal areas meant to fill the supply need of existing properties in established areas that are in short supply. I.e., as an anology, what happens when BMW builds a cheaper model to capture market from those priced out of the more expensive models? the cheaper models get priced for what they are worth in the end and the more expensive models hold their value ... and possibly gain somewhat from the presence of newer cheaper models bearing the same nameplate.

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  35. "I.e., as an anology, what happens when BMW builds a cheaper model to capture market from those priced out of the more expensive models? the cheaper models get priced for what they are worth in the end and the more expensive models hold their value"

    And the analogy fails to apply because MRIS bases their numbers on resale data.

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  36. so Keith ... are flipper re-sales of just off the shelf condos considered re-sales? you know, that 30%+ that was purchased in 2005 alone by flippers?

    :)

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  37. So you're down to that?

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  38. I'm not sure if I agree with Lance on this topic but, DC proper is small enough to be influenced by the mix of the new units for sale given the volume of construction.

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  39. lance-

    unfortunately, in the existing real estate "market" your bmw analogy does not hold water long term. Your description may be correct for say the next month or so..after this..when you look at this very same topic thread..you will see the prices of all real estate coming down...not just condos for the uninitiated...not just new construction...not just townhouses...EVERYTHING!! Please do remember to post this argument again in 2 months...thanks. So we can all chuckle over the good ole days...

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  40. "DC proper is small enough to be influenced by the mix of the new units for sale given the volume of construction."

    For the third time, the MRIS numbers are based on resales, not on the sales of brand new units. Jesus, people.

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  41. Lance said...
    “Thanks Anon. Irrational responses seem to be the norm whenever I lay out a sound argument ... “

    Sound argument? Lance, you argument is, has been, and always will be:

    Lance said...
    “…… that there is never a bad time to buy if it is a home you are buying….”
    Lance said...
    “….I do believe that for a prospective homeowner (or longterm investor) there
    IS…. no bad time to buy”
    Lance said...
    “In brief, if you are looking to buy a home, the thought of resale value shouldn't even cross your mind…..”

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  42. ANON said:
    "Please do remember to post this argument again in 2 months...thanks. So we can all chuckle over the good ole days... "

    we are all entitled to our own opinions based on our own beliefs, observations, and predictions. we shall see who has done a better job of interpreting the indications out there in light of beliefs ... But please remember that I have said all along that as part of the downside of the cycle, I do expect prices of most housing segments (including existing housing) to stagnate or even dip up to 10% - 15% for a period of up to 12- 18 months ... BUT that a rise in mortgage rates will negate most of that savings (if not all of it)for most prospective homeowners (i.e., those not in a position to pay cash.) THAT is a "soft landing" ... and not the bubble bursting ...

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  43. and as I've said before, Robert is
    SO dumb that he can only think in sound bites ... he can't quite put the whole thing together and understand what is going on ... for those who missed it, Robert is the guy who claimed that cash sitting in his pocket was earning interest!

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  44. lance said,

    "I do expect prices of most housing segments (including existing housing) to stagnate or even dip up to 10% - 15% for a period of up to 12- 18 months ... BUT that a rise in mortgage rates will negate most of that savings (if not all of it)for most prospective homeowners"

    On what basis would you make this prediction? The history of housing price bubbles indicates that prices deflate by 34% over a period of 4-5 years.

    (Which will be a good thing for those who are thinking of buying at that time -- but will be disastrous for those who bought at the top of the bubble (i.e. late 2004 through 2005).

    At any rate, here is the link (appendix C summarizes this data):

    http://www.globalinsight.com/gcpath/1Q2006report.pdf

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  45. keith said:
    "DC proper is small enough to be influenced by the mix of the new units for sale given the volume of construction."

    For the third time, the MRIS numbers are based on resales, not on the sales of brand new units. Jesus, people.


    Yeah, but new units cost more than old units. The reason MRIS shows prices going down is because they're not counting the new units. If MRIS counted all the new units being built, then you'd see that average prices are actually going up, because there are a lot more new units than there used to be.

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  46. You know, this blog used to have terrible traffic... like 2-3 replys per post... that is until Lance came aboard. I wonder sometimes if David actually created lance to drum up "business".

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  47. Whitetower said:
    "On what basis would you make this prediction?"

    I can only go on what I am observing around me ... and thus far here (downtown DC) properties are still selling quickly and prices of existing housing stock are rising. I think the larger declines will be in the median price of condos and outlying houses in the exurbs as explained in other posts. I do realize it that it IS different here than say San Diego, but I still don't see those 40% discounts for properties that were properly priced to begin with.

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  48. "Yeah, but new units cost more than old units. The reason MRIS shows prices going down is because they're not counting the new units. If MRIS counted all the new units being built, then you'd see that average prices are actually going up, because there are a lot more new units than there used to be."

    So Lance said the median price went down because of all those new cheap units. I pointed out that MRIS doesn't count those so you don't mess up your estimate by using changing samples. So now you argue that the prices would be going up if they did count those new units. You guys are getting more than a little desperate to explain away the harsh reality that prices declined in DC proper.

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  49. keith, what is the link to the MRIS numbers? thx

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  50. http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/

    Then you choose the area you want to look at from the drop-down menu.

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  51. Keith,

    Check out the listings, there are plenty of units for sale that were built in the last 3 years. Flippers and plain old resales. The resale market definitely is reflecting the impact of recent construction.

    "For the third time, the MRIS numbers are based on resales, not on the sales of brand new units. Jesus, people."

    Also, do you know for sure that the MRIS statistics screen out new construction MRIS listings? New constrution listings have soared with the slowdown as builders look for any method to move their product. I'm not aware of any method that MRIS has to screen them out of their reports. The listings on homesdatabase.com ( MRIS website)certainly don't indicate "builder sale".

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  52. Bubbleheads may be surprised to learn that at least one housinghead (i.e., me!) thinks that this is a good thing! It means that there is more affordable housing being made available for first time buyers and others who have been "priced out" by recent price increases.

    I wonder if stock traders feel the same way: "Wow! My stock has gone down. Now it's more affordable than ever! This is such good news!"

    There already is plenty of affordable housing available: They're called RENTALS. But you're right: It's good that housing is becoming afforable and it will probably become much more "affordable" in the future...

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  53. Hey, here's some fun stuff with MRIS. They now let you look at breakdowns across attached housing, detached housing, and condos.

    DC Proper: Condos down 6.5%, Attached 3 and 4 bedroom homes (townhomes) down 3.15% and 6.62%. (These are average prices, so not as good as median, but they're all MRIS provides on the breakdown.) Condos, 3 bedroom attached and 4 bedroom attached are also the largest sales categories by volume. These 3 account for about 80% of the DC sales.

    DC average prices did rise for detached homes. Around 1% for 2 and 3 bedroom detached, and 12.4% for 4 bedroom detached.

    Volumes across all categories are down.

    It looks like the numbers would have been worse for DC if not for some very high-end sales of 4 bedroom detached homes. The average price on these went from 1.07 to 1.2 million.

    DC condo inventory is around 6 months.

    It's 4.5 months for townhomes.

    4.77 months for detached homes.

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  54. "You guys are getting more than a little desperate to explain away the harsh reality that prices declined in DC proper."

    Compare that to this blatant desperation to rationalize and legitimize rental group house living in the 'burbs, and you've got an entertaining blog.

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  55. "Compare that to this blatant desperation to rationalize and legitimize rental group house living in the 'burbs"

    And once again, a housinghead admits defeat by resorting to the ad hominem.

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  56. Loudon county has 9 months inventory of condos and attached housing, and, seriously, 13 months inventory of detached housing.

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  57. "I wonder if stock traders feel the same way: "Wow! My stock has gone down. Now it's more affordable than ever! This is such good news!""

    Hey, the national housing markets (plural) are back to being like the international equities markets!

    Now go get your Mi Cash card, PK. You'll need one to move freely through your neighborhood by next year.

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  58. Lance said...

    BUT that a rise in mortgage rates will negate most of that savings (if not all of it)for most prospective homeowners (i.e., those not in a position to pay cash.) THAT is a "soft landing" ... and not the bubble bursting ...

    Lance...oh dear Lance...

    Just listen to ur self...

    If the "cost" of owning a house remains the same as you suggest (higher mortgage rate with lower home price), then won't that drive price down even further since most folks who have not bought can't afford to buy with today's historic low interest rates?

    RU for reals?

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  59. ""Compare that to this blatant desperation to rationalize and legitimize rental group house living in the 'burbs""

    This is a legitimate topic. This blog wouldn't exist if the blogger owned his own home and didn't feel cheated by what he calls a corrupt "real estate industrial complex". (an ad hominem term if ever there was one)

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  60. PK Said:
    "I wonder if stock traders feel the same way: "Wow! My stock has gone down. Now it's more affordable than ever! This is such good news!"

    pls re-read my posts ... I did NOT say the value of MY house went down ... AND again, no 2 properties are alike ... therefore there is no "market" for real estate in the sense that the word "market" is applied to stocks. Check out "specific performance" for a good indication of what this means,

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  61. lance said...
    I did NOT say the value of MY house went down

    Lance...oh dear Lance...

    Just listen to ur self...

    Lance...listen to me for a second...your house has already depreciated from 2005 selling price...get over it!! Enjoy the freedoms of homeownership and it looks like today is a good day to mow the lawn...now get to it!!

    All renters...enjoy the weather!!

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  62. "Just listen to ur self..."

    The author of this sentence is no more than 25 years old. 23 is more likely.

    Nothing wrong with that, but it is a big factor in the discussion.

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  63. anon said:
    "Lance...listen to me for a second...your house has already depreciated from 2005 selling price...get over it!! Enjoy the freedoms of homeownership and it looks like today is a good day to mow the lawn...now get to it!!"

    I don't think so ... neighboring similar houses have been selling for between 25% and 45% more than I paid. And btw, I don't have a lawn to mow ... I am downtown. Enjoy your driving! I spend the weekend walking whereever I want to go! The city really is great this time of year. I can walk out my front door and choose from about 20 restaurant outside seating areas within a 10 min walk. You know, those 10 mins where you are still trying to get out of the parking lot/street of your cookie cutter rental buildings!

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  64. Yeah, Loudoun county home values are dropping fast. I'm gonna swoop in and snatch one up next year for pennies on the dollar. Then I'll be stylin'! I'll spend the bulk of my waking hours either stuck in traffic or at work. Since I'm so young and hep, I'll continue to hang out in DC on the weekends (but I'd never LIVE there, oh no). I'll just need to leave my stylin' Loudoun home 3 hours before I need to be anywhere. 4 hours if it is raining, and I'll be stranded by light dustings of snow. Well, I guess I could start hanging out at the local Loudoun strip mall instead of DC.

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  65. " You know, those 10 mins where you are still trying to get out of the parking lot/street of your cookie cutter rental buildings!"

    In Tyson's, it is 30 minutes, not 10.

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  66. lance said..
    for between 25% and 45% more than I paid

    Lance...when did you buy? I said price depreciation has already happened from 2005 selling price...patience my dear...patience...

    Enjoy your small place in the city!! Just think how much more space you would have in the burbs but oh well..I guess you like paying a penalty for eating at those restaurants..pay more to live so close..in the burbs we cook gourmet meals..thank-you very much...

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  67. and we rent houses not apartments like you have bought...

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  68. anon said:
    "in the burbs we cook gourmet meals"

    that's the first time I've heard ordering in from Pizza Hut 'cause it took you 5 hrs to get home in the traffic "gourmet"!

    Ditto for road kill that's easily available when you are leaving home at 4 in the morning to be at work by 8!

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  69. Lance said...
    “... for those who missed it, Robert is the guy who claimed that cash sitting in his pocket was earning interest!”

    For those who missed it, Lance is the guy who doesn’t know what an ATM card is.

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  70. "that's the first time I've heard ordering in from Pizza Hut 'cause it took you 5 hrs to get home in the traffic "gourmet"!"

    There's no Wegmans in DC. There is one in Sterling.

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  71. There are no Five Star (world class) restaurants in Sterling. There are many in Washington, DC.

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  72. Keith said:
    "There's no Wegmans in DC. There is one in Sterling."

    That's right ... we are stuck with Dean and Deluca ... just like NYC ... poor us ... poor them ...

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  73. Dean and DeLuca's for suckers.

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  74. And the most highly regarded restaurant in the DC area is 90 minutes out of DC.

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  75. LOL! Washington DC vs. Sterling VA on the topic of culinary exclusivity. Yep, Sterling wins. Hands down.

    Jeeves, tell the chauffer to pull the limo around. We're going to Sterling for dinner tonight.

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  76. Dean and de Luca's for people who have no taste, and therefore fall for the ridiculous markups.

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  77. And the DC to NYC compariosn is laughable. That comparison is for insecure twits who have no real class or sophistication.

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  78. "And the most highly regarded restaurant in the DC area is 90 minutes out of DC."

    It depends upon the clientle. Yes, the ladies who wear girdles under their plaid skirts do prefer to dine 90 miles away.

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  79. Dude, if you don;t know that I was referring to the Inn at Little Washington, and you don't know what they are, then you really are out of the culinary loop.

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  80. Oh my, the little inn in Washington, VA is a place I've been aware of for about 16 years now. Dood. That's more than half the time you've been alive, isn't it?

    Forgive me, it is a smidge over 70 miles from DC. That isn't "the Washington area".

    Join us next week at Citronelle, won't you? You will be going Dutch, of course.

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  81. Yes, the ladies of Washington VA do wear girdles under their plaid skirts. The have perfected their golf claps as well, don't you know?

    clapclapclapclapclap.

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  82. Jeeves, disregard my order regarding dinner in Sterling this evening. Instruct the chauffer that we are headed to Washington Virginia for a sparkling evening of world class cultural experiences.

    Bring some DVDs to keep us entertained while we make the journey on the Virginia highways and byways.

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  83. The Inn at Little Washington is rated 5 star as a "Relais Gourmand" by the Michelin Guide. Liberally translated a "relais" is a "rest stop" on a long trip between cities. I.e., I wouldn't expect a DC restaurant to get this rating ...

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  84. Johns Hopkins University is offering a Master's degree program in...REAL ESTATE!

    David, please get on this right away!

    http://business.jhu.edu/realestate/index.cfm

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  85. But summing up, DC 3 and 4 bedroom townhomes "attached housing" or down YOY, too. So that pretty much destroys all the desperate pleadings of the housingheads. Stick a fork in 'em. They're well done.

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  86. Plus, anybody who knows anything knows that Michel Richard is so frequently absent from Citronelle that it's not the place where people with taste and knowledge go. So I'm sure the housingheads are the perfect clientele.

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  87. Lance said...
    that's the first time I've heard ordering in from Pizza Hut 'cause it took you 5 hrs to get home in the traffic "gourmet"!

    Unfortunately, Lance..you are wrong once again. I am a stay at home mom (my choice, have a doctorate but want to be home w/ my child during her most formative years) and can afford to do so, because a) my hubba makes enough money to rent and save (35% of income) b) I have the time and energy to cook healthy nutritious meals for myself and family, and c)
    we enjoy the freedom of not having to pay some huge mortgage b/c Lance thinks prices are reasonable. That's almost as laughable as TV ad where Suzanne the Century 21 real estate agent "researchs" it and helps the nagging wife to convince her husband to buy the house..."what...what..." hehe...gotta love the attempts by NAR!!

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  88. Sorry, didn't mean to imply you couldn't cook, I'm sure you're a great cook. I thought you were a 20-something guy living with roommates ;)

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  89. What's this, the food channel?

    Anyway, I came across this blog:

    http://askmerv.choice3realty.com/000673.html

    run by a realtor, it seems to be refreshlingly free of the marketing nonsense promulgated by firms like D*** referenced in a previous thread.

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  90. So lance bought an overpriced condo so he could be near over-priced restaurants? Hmm.

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  91. So.... an adult female with a young child needs to justify her lifestyle choices via the internet to a guy calling himself "Lance"?

    Seems fishy to me. Lance struck a nerve somewhere along the way.

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  92. "So lance bought an overpriced condo so he could be near over-priced restaurants? Hmm."

    He bought a fee-simple brownstone, from what I gather.

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  93. Can I asume everyone has seen this re: i/o loans?

    http://tinyurl.com/k8vrt

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  94. No, I'm not going to follow the link.

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  95. "No, I'm not going to follow the link."

    Actually, considering some of the stunts that have been pulled, probably a wise policy Try this:

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/realestate/bal-bz.re.harney18aug18,0,3179443.story?coll=bal-realestate-headlines-1

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  96. i (stay at home mom) don't really have to justify my choices, just wanted to let Lance know that he does not know everyone and everything. In fact Lance really doesn't even have to exist, the more you think of it...lance represents all of those bitter homeowners who are wondering "what the hell just happened?" I thought I was rich...Unfortunately the moms (and dads) like me (and I know of at least 5 other couples), professionals who are staying home and not buying until later...much, much later are keeping "lance" from realizing his dreams. Hopefully "he"...homeowners are saving enough $$ too, b/c now ur home is no longer an ATM!!

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  97. But at what point will you decide to buy if prices don't drop as much as anticipated? What if prices level off with only a 10-15% drop?

    Will you rent indefinitely or bite the bullet and buy three or four years down the line?

    Don't get me wrong I'm a renter and would like to see prices drop by at least 30% but I also realize this may not happen.

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  98. anon 5:22

    To answer ur question, I think we will wait until a)I absolutely "have to" settle down or b) when homes finally become worthy of our hard earned dollars (i.e., we feel like okay now this is the price I would pay for a home with these features, etc). Unlike the majority of Americans, we don't want all of our wealth holed up in our home. Once we feel like we have a "good enough" amount of other assets, e.g., stocks, IRAs, 401k, college savings,etc, then we will add on the house. I am not saying I want to be at 100% of our goals with all of those other assets but a healthy enough amount in each that housing becomes a smaller portion of the pie. Housing is just not a priority for us. Hope that answer your question.

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  99. July data isn't available, but in June average and median prices for condos were up 3.2% and 3.9% YoY - this is ALL condos, not just resales.

    New developments represented a significant portion (~22%) of all condo sales, which constituted almost half of all sales in DC that month.

    So while sales of existing condo units may have declined 6.5%, the new units coming online are significant enough in volume to affect the overall direction of market prices.

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  100. Hey, I'm back. Fire at will.

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  101. The "stay at home mom" is either a troll or (s)he really does need to a) air his/her personal choices to an anonymous audience and b) find approval/acceptance/validation in like-minded individuals.

    Stay in your apartment with your infant; and cook healthy meals to your heart's content. Else; STFU.

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  102. Stay at home mom said:

    "i (stay at home mom) don't really have to justify my choices, just wanted to let Lance know that he does not know everyone and everything. In fact Lance really doesn't even have to exist, the more you think of it...lance represents all of those bitter homeowners who are wondering "what the hell just happened?" I thought I was rich...Unfortunately the moms (and dads) like me (and I know of at least 5 other couples), professionals who are staying home and not buying until later...much, much later are keeping "lance" from realizing his dreams. Hopefully "he"...homeowners are saving enough $$ too, b/c now ur home is no longer an ATM!!"

    Do you honestly expect educated people to beleive that "have your Phd."?

    Is it from Strayer University?

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  103. " $$ too, b/c now ur home is no longer an ATM!!""


    See, this is what tells intelligent people that you are that male kid who likes to argue about gourmet restaurants. It indicates that you are *NOT* a "stay at home mom" with a Ph.D.

    You are not sophisticated enough to conceal your personality behind your writing. Keep trying; perhaps you will figure it out at some point.

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  104. I'm the anonymous poster from above who thinks that the same person is posting under different names.

    I can't handle the fact that people have PhDs and I'm too stupid to even dream of achieving that.

    I sit at the computer and think I can have deep insights about people's psychological makeup based on their postings to a housing blog. I end up just making an ass of myself in front of everybody.

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  105. The Fake Keith said: "So while sales of existing condo units may have declined 6.5%, the new units coming online are significant enough in volume to affect the overall direction of market prices."

    It was prices, not sales, you moron.

    And now you're going back in time to June data? I guess that will have to be your final play: "I'm AnonyTroll! Things were great in 03, so there, bubbleheads! Waaaaaaah!"

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  106. its almost like instead of fighting over whether there is a bubble or not...you have decided to fight over whether stay at home mom exists...LOL

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  107. Hey, as a housinghead, I prefer fighting about a stay-at-home mom over fighting over the housing bubble.

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  108. " its almost like instead of fighting over whether there is a bubble or not...you have decided to fight over whether stay at home mom exists...LOL"

    A discussion about the bubble cannot take place when someone jumps in here and consistently lies about their circumstances.

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  109. David

    thanks for posting this YOY info. Very informative and finally I can point to some numbers to get my brother to stop thinking about buying a house right now.

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  110. "A discussion about the bubble cannot take place when someone jumps in here and consistently lies about their circumstances."

    I'm not an obnoxious loser who pesters people, really. I'm enforcing ethical standards. That's what I tell myself to avoid facing up to how pathetic I am.

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  111. Thought for the day:
    20% of US homes are currently being mortgaged with Option ARM's making the minimum (neg-Am) payment.

    Only about 5% of the population who is credit worthy enough to buy a home hasn't bought. :(

    My numbers are from:
    33% of homes are motgaged by Option ARMs. We recently learned that 70% of Option ARM loans are only making the minimum payment. (33%*70%=23%, I rounded down).

    The population who is waiting to buy in:
    69% of Americans own their home (Wow! That's great... but...)
    26% are currently too close to the poverty line to qualify for credit.

    This, only 5% remain.
    Neil

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  112. "I'm not an obnoxious loser who pesters people, really. I'm enforcing ethical standards. That's what I tell myself to avoid facing up to how pathetic I am."

    Is your name David, by any chance?

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  113. First, you don't have a universal lock on the name Keith; there are others in the DC area with that name, too.

    Second, you're right. *Prices* for *existing* condo units in DC are down 6.5% in July per MRIS.

    My point is that DC's sales data shows that, in aggregate, the sales of new units coming online affect the overal pricing trend, as seen in June when average and median prices continued to rise YoY.

    However, the data also show that sales voume - number of unit sold - has been declining all year YoY.

    As I believe I said in my comment, once new construction tapers off, the average and median prices for the aggregate market will start showing declines. Right now, though, the new construction is muddying the picture.

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  114. PK Said:
    "I wonder if stock traders feel the same way: "Wow! My stock has gone down. Now it's more affordable than ever! This is such good news!"

    pls re-read my posts ... I did NOT say the value of MY house went down ... AND again, no 2 properties are alike ... therefore there is no "market" for real estate in the sense that the word "market" is applied to stocks. Check out "specific performance" for a good indication of what this means,


    Very well then. I'll restate: How many stock owners celebrate the price of their stock flattening out and similar stocks becoming more "affordable"? Or that other traders with similar portfolios are cashing out while they sit and are thankful for, maybe, 3% increases that barely keep up with inflation?

    It's interesting that you probably weren't concerned about the lack of affordability when the price was going up. So why celebrate it as the price goes down?

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  115. There are the Uhlans, they've got the itch again, amid haystacks - another picture for you - wheeling their horses, they gather round a man, his name in Spain is Don Quixote, but here he is Pan Kichot, a pure-blooded Pole, a noble, mournful figure, who has taught his Uhlans to kiss ladies' hands on horseback, ah, with what aplomb they will kiss the hand of death, as though death were a lady; but first they gather, with sunset behind them - for color and romance are their reserves - and ahead of them the German tanks, stallions from the studs of Krupps von Bohlen und Halbach, no nobler steeds in all the world. But Pan Kichot, the eccentric knight in love with death, lowers his lance with the red-and-white pennant and calls on his men to kiss the lady's hand. The storks clatter white and red on rooftops, and the sunset spits out pits like cherries, as he cries to his cavalry: "Ye noble Poles on horseback, these are no steel tanks, they are mere windmills or sheep, I summon you to kiss the lady's hand".

    Charge those tanks, PK.

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  116. Charge those tanks, PK.

    Plagiarist! :-)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_cavalry

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  117. Need NOVA RE helpAugust 22, 2006 2:52 PM

    Can anyone get data on the price changes in 22079, Lorton VA? The property is a $600K condo.

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