Discredited: National Association of Realtors' Anti Bubble Reports

Back in October of 2005 The National Association of Realtors (NAR) published anti bubble reports for 135 metro markets across the United States. The purpose of these anti bubble reports was to provide "necessary information (reports) to respond to the irresponsible bubble accusations made by your local media and local academics." Original posts on these reports:

NAR's Housing Market Reports (10/15/05, Bubble Meter)
NAR Releases Local Anti-Bubble Research (10/02/05, Bubble Meter)

For metropolitan Sacramento, CA their anti bubble report (pdf) stated that

The local housing market will experience a price decline of 5% only under extreme unlikely scenarios. For example, mortgage rates rising to 7.8% in combination with 25,000 job losses could lead to a price decline.

However, according to data from DataQuick:

The new survey shows that median sales prices for new and resale homes and condominiums in Sacramento County fell 5 percent below July 2005 levels.

According to Freddie Mac interest rates on 30yr fixed averaged 6.52 . Jobs are still plentiful in Sacramento as it "showed strong growth in online want ads." [Monster.com] The 'extremely unlikely scenario' where mortgage rates hit 7.8% in conjunction with 25,000 job losses in Sacramento area has not yet happened. Yet, median prices have already declined 5% (YoY) in Sacramento county.

The National Association of Realtors' anti bubble reports will quickly become a laughing matter just like the book Dow 36,000. The National Association of Realtors is losing its credibility.