Sunday, August 27, 2006

BubbleSphere Roundup

The mainstreaming of the housing bubble view is happening quickly. The significant declines happening in many markets across the US is quickly reaching Joe American. During this past week, there were a huge number of reports and stories across the mainstream media (msm).

I have been slacking off recently on my blogging. Here are some blog posts of interest:

At The Housing Bubble Blog there is a great post where people Post Local Housing Market Observations Here. One commentator writes of the, " 'Zillow-gap' in Loudoun Co. — getting larger every month! Homes are being listed for 5-20% below the zillow value!" FYI: Loudoun county is an outer suburb of Washington, DC.

Southern California Real Estate Blog tell us why The Fed Cant Save Housing, even if it wanted to! He turns to history for evidence "Fed Funds rates dropped from 9 3/4 in Feb 89 to 3% in September 92, and California still had one of the worst housing-busts in recorded history in the US. A total drop of 6 3/4%! We currently stand at 5.25%. Not possible to even drop that much this time" Right on!

The National Association of Realtors just released some of David Lereah's 'Greatest' Hits. These are some of the most requested power point presentations by NAR Chief Economist David Lereah and others from the last 12 months. It is was quite a story. In a power point presentation from August's Realtors' Leadership conference in Chicago titled 'Reality Check' (ppt) David Lereah basically has many slides showing how housing prices have become divorced from reality.


Please note that the background for the 'Reality Check' power point shows multiple bubble. Below are some excellent some posts about this issue from my esteemed housing bubble blogger colleagues:

Lereah Mea Culpa? (Paper Money)
The End of the Myth (Paper Money)
Lereah Says "Hard Landing" (Marin Real Estate Bubble)
FLASH: I can't believe what I'm reading. NAR admits US housing disaster underway (Housing Panic)

In David Lereah's presentation he writes "Soft Landing," "Price expected to fall for remainder of year," "Price fall to be limited due to pent-up demand at lower prices," "home prices begin to soften," and that a "correction is necessary."

106 comments:

  1. Now that's funny! Just three weeks ago I was running around my rental singing "I'm not just a Housing Bear, I'm a Housing POLAR Bear"...Family thought I'd flipped the old noodle.

    The NAR stole my schtick...Guess, I should either sue 'em or work for 'em

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  2. Santa won't be able to get down the chinney's for the next few years. The REPO man will be stuck in there ..and he WON'T come OUT. Ho Ho Ho !

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  3. David,
    Your note about the Fed not being able to save the bubble and the interest rate track around 1992 is quite apt. It won't be "OK" to buy real estate for years to come no matter what the Fed does. They can increase liquidity, but they can't directly affect demand. Sort of like pushing a string. After 9/11 interest rates plunged but it took a while for that liquidity to stimulate the economy. The housing bubble was an unwanted side effect made worse with IO and other creative loans. Nothing they could do about it, and the economy was a risk of deflation coming off the stock bubble.

    We won't see fights breaking out in lines for new condos for quite some time. We will again, but it will take at least a decade.

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  4. The housing bubble was caused by speculation and rising prices.

    Changing interest rates is irrelevant.

    Lower interest rates fueled the fire but when prices start falling, lowering interest rates is NOT going to support a soft landing. Who wants to buy an asset losing value at any interest rate?

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  5. Put another way, who wants to borrow money, at all, to purchase something that is falling in price?

    Ever notice the MSM nearly always says, "leverage, using borrowed money to invest, amplifies returns, but CAN also amplify losses."

    So, it's a fact the leverage helps on the way up, but it MIGHT aggravate losses on the way down. Nonsense. The relationship is perfectly inverse. If you bought at or near the top with borrowed money, you will get wiped out.

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  6. Anon 11:22am,

    You are correct. According to that presentation by Lereah, 28% of homes bought last year were by speculators. Call it a quarter of sales. In other words, it would take 100% of 3 months of sales to clear that inventory at last years sales rate... But they aren't willing to drop their prices...

    Lets see... (.28*12)/(1-.28)= 4.7 months of sales just to get rid of flippers homes *if* only their homes sold.
    Nope, nothing to see here, move along folks.

    Speculation, since 80% of the population moves every 5 years, how long will it take flippers to sell? Will their sales be 20% of total sales? I doubt even with repos it could break 30%. So no matter what, we're looking at another 15 months of declining prices if all goes well for the flippers.

    It won't go well for them.
    And the builders keep on buidling. See slide 17. The pain will continue until that drops below 3 million (at the minimum).
    Neil

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  7. excellent post neil.
    the real bob

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  8. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  9. Neil,

    The only 28% statistic I saw in the presentation was for purchases of second homes. 28% of second homes were purchase as investments, not all homes.

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  10. Let's not distort the numbers Neil.

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  11. Let's not distort the numbers Neil.


    yeah, no kidding only David Lereah is allowed to do that!!


    BTW i was upside down during that interest rate decrease and i couldn't refi unless i brought 60K to the table since my house had devalued that much.

    this time people will need to bring 200K to the table to refi if intest rates fall???

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  12. Well, you must be "sitting pretty" now if you have owned a home so long. It is probably paid for, right?

    Must feel good.

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  13. I'd be "sitting pretty" if my great grandfather had bought shares in September 1929, too. A disaster for him, in his lifetime, to be sure. What the hell is your point Investor? You are always in here "real estate is a great investment." What BS. What real estate, at what price? For Christ's sake you sound like a stockbroker. "Stocks always go up over the long term." We are all dead , of course, but what the hell.

    I thought the whole point was to buy low and sell high. I guess I got it wrong. You guys don't ever quit do you?

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  14. No the point isn't to buy and sell, it is to buy and hold for the long term.

    Don't tell me you sold during the last downturn and never bought again. If I were still renting at your age I'd be bitter and depressed too.

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  15. "...[i]f I were still renting at your age I'd be bitter and depressed too."



    http://www.heretical.com/sexsci/bpsychol.html

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  16. Exactly - Va_Investor has been investing in real estate for 25 years, the past 10 of which saw the greatest run up in real estate history. It worked out for her but it hardly makes her a financial genius.

    As stated before, investing in SFHs is the worst real estate investment you can make becuase of the high maintenance costs and the risk of losing your entire month's cash-flow during vacant months. (Someone posted some book that supposedly refuted that and it was laughable - it was one of those "you can be a millionaire with a 10-10-10 formula" books. It assumed annual home appreciation of 5%, which is hardly gauranteed. Also, if someone is really doing that well financially, why do they need to write books sharing their secrets and increasing the # of folks also trying to scoop up RE bargains? Anyways.)

    And Investor stated before, she was not cash flow positive on properties until she starting putting 30% up front. The fact that she is so Pollyanna on RE makes me suspicious that all the heavy lifting was done by someone else (her husband, perhaps?). She also claimed once that she had been "doing this for 25 years and never has vacancies." That just doesn't ring true. Long-term investors who come out ahead rarely look back and say it was all easy.

    Finally, her experience is simply not germane to the discussion on this board, which is whether it is a good idea to purchase a home today or whether prices might decrease enough in the near future to make it worthwhile to wait. Most folks here don't care about buying 10 houses over the next 20 years and renting them out. And even if they were, she hardly comes across as an objective, experienced investor openly sharing the pros and cons.

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  17. Yes, you got me. I'm just "lucky". And people continue to pay off my houses. Just dumb luck.

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  18. anon 6:10 pm said,
    "Long-term investors who come out ahead rarely look back and say it was all easy. "

    This is so true! One of my close friends uncle told me the exact same thing. He is extremely rich, he owns about 20 apartment comlexes in milwaukee. He told me that realestate can make you rich, but it is the hardest job he has ever had.

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  19. Investor:

    Umm - the word 'lucky' does not appear anywhere in my post. I was actually accusing you of being dishonest - mainly lying by omission.

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  20. I could not care less what you think.

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  21. The real reason Fed rates are irrelevant at this point is because of the glut. Low rates will not make people buy homes that they don't need.

    We built a fantastic oversupply of homes to meet speculator demand. These excess homes were hidden in the loving arms of investors until recently when they were all dumped on the market en masse. Now that everybody knows they're out there, there's no chance of rekindling the housing bubble no matter how low rates go.

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  22. Thanks for the comments on the nil effect that lowering interest rates will have folks. Was looking for commentary on that.

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  23. Anon 6:10, you nailed it! Great post...

    B747

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  24. Ah, I see it is 28% of 2nd homes. Ok.

    So my numbers were a little pessimistic.

    I still haven't seen anything that says its smart to buy now. In fact... every fact I read screams "sell!"

    As I noted before, something like 69% of American's now own their home. That's a good thing. :) Another 26% are too close to the poverty line to qualify to rent. That doesn't leave a large percentage ready to buy.

    And slide 17 still shows a break out in home inventory to an "All-time High."

    In the last housing bubble, I watched homes drop 40% in certain neighborhoods. Yes, it was only 18% county wide... But it was 40% in a few select cities.

    The fact is that homes are now as much of an investment as a residence.

    Since slide 45 shows that turnover is still high... I'm ok waiting on the sidelines. If sales drop from ~8% of stock to the more historical (as I read it) ~5% of stock... That is a 40% drop in the sales rate. Hmmm... what will that do for inventory?

    Or maybe its because I just found out my company is moving a group to Pheonix from a higher priced bubble area. If a company cannot make a profit in City X and can in City Y (e.g., like CrisCraft moving out of Florida), they will relocate.

    And I see on slide 53 that core inflation is creeping up.

    What happens to the housing market and all those ARMs if the Fed has no choice but to raise rates again? If rents go up... so does the core and thus so does the Federal funds rate.

    Homes by any traditional measure are simply unaffordable. We're going to find out the answer to the question "what happens we everyone is priced out of the market?"


    Neil

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  25. "Homes by any traditional measure are simply unaffordable to Neil. We're going to find out the answer to the question 'what happens when Neil is priced out of the market?'"

    Fixed

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  26. Anon 5:17

    It isn't just Neil. There was an entire article in the Outlook section of the Post this weekend about affordable housing. How in 2000, one quarter of property listing were under $250K in Fairfax Co. Now, one in 20 are that low. Also, in Fairfax Co, if your household makes less than $90K, you qualify for affordable housing.

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  27. Anonymous said...
    ""Homes by any traditional measure are simply unaffordable to Neil. We're going to find out the answer to the question 'what happens when Neil is priced out of the market?'"

    Fixed"

    He may not be priced out as much as just looking to get "something for nothing". I think he said in an earlier post that he and his wife earn nearly $250,000 per year and have something like $200,000 put away for a downpayment. They're not priced out .... He just wants to buy your place for nothing so that he can continue a lavish lifestyle.

    I remember telling the bubbleheads how for my first home I had to scrimp since close to half my income went to housing costs. Someone like Neil won't do that. He wants his cake and eat it too.

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  28. If Lance's description of Neil's situation is correct, then things seem to be working out for Neil. If Neil were to buy tomorrow compared to a year ago, he would have much more to choose from, similar interest rates, and lower asking prices. Plus, he's saved another year for that downpayment.

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  29. Pretty funny. Anonymous posters (and yes, unless you publish your real name, and not the internet equivalent of a CB handle, you are anonymous)going on and on about their "accomplishments" and the motivations and mental state of other anononymous posters whom they will never meet.

    I have over 30 years of experience in RE in every area except sales. And you know what that means? On a blog, squat. I, as well the supposed experts here, could be a retired meter maid with a RE fetish.

    Keep that in mind lest you you become wrapped up in these childish "bitter vs. loser vs. liar" troll battles.

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  30. Lance,

    I never stated my income. I did state I could buy a lake front house near Austin for cash. That's it. :)

    I don't want something for nothing. I simply do not wish to watch several hundred thousand dollars evaporate. As to lavish lifestyle... then why am I saving 40% of my after tax income?

    Oh, I scrimped and saved to buy my first home too. Remember me telling you that? I posted how I lost money on it after a forced coporate move and va_investor made a sarcastic comeback about "the voice of experience." I have been an owner in the past and will be again. Not at today's prices, they're insane. I also told you about the shear number of people I know who cannot keep up with their mortgage payments.

    Lance... I used to respect you. That last post shows you weren't reading my previous posts. Good luck. But I'm afraid that I simply cannot take you seriously after that last post.

    Its simply too obvious that the only analogous situation to what we're in was Florida 1926. Ok, its not to that severity, but the speculative trends were similar.

    Part of my perspective is that I'm involved in hiring in a fortune 500 company. I have been involved with the transfer of highly paid workers out of bubble areas due to the inability to attract talent into the overpriced markets. Remember that? Well... we're transfering people out of DC too. Ok, Mostly out of Los Angeles... but the net flows are there.

    I have friends who hire for quite a variety of companies... I do not talk housing with them; we hint to each other how many people we're hiring so that we have an idea of the market (how hard is it to attract talent, wage trends, etc.). For the first time ever, none of us is hiring. In fact, a majority have hiring freezes. Only the managers in the medical field can replace attrition. Most of us are downsizing in some way. We tend to, as a group, see what's happening six months before it does.

    As to my buying strategy? There are five flips currently in my favorite neighborhood that have not been able to sell for over six months. I'm simply waiting for them to go bankrupt and I'll buy a later one at auction. The inventory in this neighborhood? The last time it was this high was 1979 when high oil and interest rates kept people from buying in.

    Think about the inventory. Its never been this high before! Never. If you've listened to the more rational people on this blog you know that the slowdown is going ahead of schedule. I admit that doesn't mean a thing.

    But DC is not more than 4 to 6 months behind California. My California is going to get hammered. :(

    For the record, I'm normally an optimist and only five years ago I was pushing friends to buy homes.

    You need another comeback other than "you're imature if you're not buying."

    Neil

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  31. Lance has no respect in this blog. He used to have a rationale argument, but now he has become a loser.

    "your a loser, you live with your parents"

    "Bitter renter, you cant afford a house"

    "realestate only goes up"

    "Bubbleheads are responsible for the housing drop off"

    Just see the other post from the other articles. Lance is a nut job. VA_investor is still ok in my book, although he was backing the psycho rantings of lance for a while.

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  32. It would be funny to see a graph, where the insults thrown is associated to the drop in housing indicators.

    BTW - For Lance, a few threads back I pointed out that 80% of income earners had seen zero increase in real incomes. He asked for references, and I was too swamped to go digging. However, today regular commentor Bonddad at DK posted on that very subject, so I'm adding in the link.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/28/8539/41276

    It isn't just opinion, the article is heavily sourced and contains source links.

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  33. I don't know why some of my comments were deleted. It puts all of my remarks out of context.

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  34. Maybe that is the point. David?

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  35. He wants his cake and eat it too. -- Lance August 28, 2006 5:36 AM

    Savings one's money to have a good downpayment with a 30-year fixed used to be the norm, not the exception. I'm not quite sure why you're giving Neil a hard time about that.

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  36. "I don't know why some of my comments were deleted. It puts all of my remarks out of context. "

    Blog Rules. Please do a search

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  37. We're overdue here for a post showing blurry photos of old DC rowhouses, and a post about how this hurricane season is likely to destroy florida housing.

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  38. "Hmmm... what will that do for inventory?"

    Answer: Nothing.

    A good portion of the inventory for sale is discretionary. How much? I don't know, but undoubtedly Neil is not alone thinking this is a "good time to sell".

    Inventory for sale is not the same as inventory of physical housing units. The Census data that will be released in October will have a count on vacant units that will be a much better indicator of overall supply and demand than discretionary sales listings.

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  39. va_investor said...
    "I don't know why some of my comments were deleted. It puts all of my remarks out of context."

    same here ... it's impossible to have fair debates when parts of what you say are deleted ... and I also can't understand what blog rules were violated.

    Neil, if that wasn't you who talked about the quarter million dollar income a couple weeks back, then my apologies. It was a regular, one of the moderate regulars ... maybe Keith?

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  40. I think that I violated the "don't embarrass nikki" rule.

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  41. Isn't Nikki the person who jumped in here and argued that residential housing is a "scam"?

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  42. VA Investor,

    I'm a bubblehead and even I agree that nikki embarrassed herself.

    I think the only answer she expected to get was that Auction = New Drastically reduced comp.

    While I don't agree that it has no impact on future FMV, I don't believe it equals FMV. I suspect that there's probably an appraisor's rule of thumb that says an auction reflects .7FMV or something like that.

    My $0.02.

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  43. Could someone clarify? I was under the impression that the Herndon auction *ended* with a final bid of $475k, which did not meet reserve of $675k. Auction ended with no buyer. Same potential buyer subsequently offered (outside of auction) $530, which was accepted.

    Was that an auction sale or a FSBO?

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  44. H,

    Your numbers are approximately correct. I'm not sure how that sale is qualified by an appraiser.

    My $0.02.

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  45. It sold as the result of the auction, but not through auction. We still have not heard from an appraiser as to whether this sale would be factored into comps.

    My point is that the sale was a tremendous bargain for the purchaser. There are good, and even great, deals out there if one is willing to put in the effort.

    In this vein, I do agree with Lance that there is never a "bad" time to buy - just bad deals.

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  46. I don't know either $0.02. I wonder if, in the current market, many *do* know.

    No denying here that it was a very, very good deal. 50% of so off asking, presuming the asking price is even *reasonably* close to other asking prices in the area, is shocking. From the article, it sounds like it was the buyer's "dream house," (she had kept her eye on it, etc.) so in all cases, it was clearly a good time for her to buy that home.

    But that's not what I hear Lance saying. I hear him saying that people are expecting too much and that they should settle (review any thread in the past few weeks and I'm fairly certain you'll find this approximate statement - usually as "they want champagne on a beer budget"). This woman is the exact opposite - she waited, saved, and bought when the price of the home she wanted, in the area she wanted, was affordable.

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  47. this blog is funny, but i have to wonder why Lance and VA_investor are even here?

    and paying 50% of your income for housing is insane.....IMHO

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  48. "and paying 50% of your income for housing is insane....IMHO"

    I doubt you are very "humble". Many young people, just starting out, are willing to sacrifice alot of discretionary spending to squeeze into that first house.

    Unlike most on this blog believe, the results are not often disasterous.

    One may have to forego the new car, the weekend club nights, the plasma and etc., but the rewards will come later.

    I think the beer and champagne references might have been mine. Today's first time buyer wants granite and stainless and on and on. What happened to the concept of "starter home".

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  49. "and paying 50% of your income for housing is insane.....IMHO"

    Perhaps. Especially if your net monthly paycheck = $3000.00

    But what if your net monthly paycheck reads: "$7000.00"?

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  50. It may have been yours initially. I believe Lance picked up on it and ran.

    And I very much disagree with you with regards to what first time buyers want, especially in this market. You and I have the same question: "what happened to the concept of a 'starter home'?"

    For the past few years, the starter homes were snatched up, slathered with granite and stainless and extra bathrooms, and were put on the market to flip for twice the price (or more).

    I don't care for stainless; I don't care about granite; I don't want 5000 square feet; I don't care about an absurd ratio of bathrooms to bedrooms (and I don't understand more bathrooms than bedrooms?).

    I care about safety and decent schools. I care about having an inspection for the home I would purchase, rather than accepting the sellers' word. I care about a reasonable commute. And I rent in an area with all of these things for a pittance compared to what it would cost to own.

    I think plenty of people forego the plasmas, the flashy cars, dinners out every other night. That doesn't make housing any more reasonable or affordable, at least with historical standards.

    That's my humble opinion, in any case.

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  51. I don't think it is more expensive than it was in the early 80's when interest rates approached 18%. People still bought then.

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  52. The early '80's was the deepest recession on record since the 1930's. Most assets could be bought on the cheap. And borrowers needed 20% down plus emergency money to buy a house. Sure, some people bought.

    "I don't think it is more expensive than it was in the early 80's when interest rates approached 18%. People still bought then."

    That is a misleading and disingenious thing for you to say, VA.

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  53. dc_too,

    I bought in 1981 & 1983 & 1984 & 1985 etc., so I may know a little more about than you. There is nothing misleading or disingenuous about my statements.

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  54. No?
    Housing Prices in DC area, Adjusted for Inflation. I don't have time to run the numbers right now, but a comparison of 6.5% 30 yr at today's prices and 18% 30 yr at 80s (inflation adjusted) prices would be interesting.

    Although I agree - people did buy then, and people will continue to buy now. But in far fewer numbers, with fewer first-time buyers. Instead, properties will switch hands as people move, switch jobs, upgrade because of family and so on. I've never claimed (nor would I) that home buying will stop.

    And I'm not sure how that relates to the question about starter homes, or what first-time buyers want. Unaffordability is a huge problem; I can't see how you could possibly deny that.

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  55. "I bought in 1981 & 1983 & 1984 & 1985 etc." - VA_Investor

    How many of those were distress sales?

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  56. A final note: the highest mortgage rate in the 1980s that I can find through some quick searching runs something around 15% - 15.5%. That's for one year (or less) from Aug 81 - June 82.

    18%?

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  57. I'll respect blog rules, provided they're fairly enforced. The problem here is that they aren't. For example, someone above misquotes Lance, as well as insults Lance. That comment however isn't censored. On the other hand, if anyone criticizes a bubblehead (remember the 70% vs. 65% price drop debate?), than the comment is deleted.

    Rules not fairly enforced make the blog appear to be poorly run. I suggest that either the blog rules are rescinded, or they are enforced against bubbleheads and housingheads alike.

    Doubtlessly this comment will be deleted shortly.

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  58. anonymous said...
    "As stated before, investing in SFHs is the worst real estate investment you can make becuase of the high maintenance costs and the risk of losing your entire month's cash-flow during vacant months. (Someone posted some book that supposedly refuted that and it was laughable - it was one of those "you can be a millionaire with a 10-10-10 formula" books. "

    I'm the guy who posted the "laughable" book. It is not a get-rich-quick book. The author's real estate investing strategy is very similar to Warren Buffett's strategy for stocks. I am well aware that there are very few good real estate investment books out there. John T. Reed keeps a list of real estate "guru" recommendations. Very few of them get positive reviews. John Schaub was one of the few.

    It assumed annual home appreciation of 5%, which is hardly gauranteed."

    Absolutely true. Most stock and mutual fund books assume an average rate of return of around 10%, but that is also not guaranteed.

    "Also, if someone is really doing that well financially, why do they need to write books sharing their secrets and increasing the # of folks also trying to scoop up RE bargains? Anyways.)

    Your argument doesn't hold water. There are plenty of authors who write excellent books on stock and mutual fund investing. Have you ever heard of John Bogle, Burton G. Malkiel, Jeremy Siegel, or Peter Lynch? Why should real estate be any different?

    Let's say hypothetically that you are a successful real estate investor. You have $1 million in real estate equity and can generate an ROE of 20% per year. (These are completely made-up numbers for illustrative purposes only, BTW.) That gives you an annual income of $200,000. Let's say your loses from writing the book reduce your investment income by 25% because of increased competition. As long as your income as an author outweigh your lost income as an investor, it is still financially worthwhile to write the book.

    By the way, I'm a bubblehead.

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  59. h,

    Don't know what data base you are searching, but I specifically remember FHA and VA hiting those rates. I may be 48, but I still remember the early 80's. Any of my contempories recall?

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  60. anon 3:11,

    I agree. The one-sided rule enforcement brings down the quality of the blog.

    People went nuts on Lance and nothing was deleted. Tons of personal insults and misrepresentations.

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  61. anonymous said...
    I thought the whole point was to buy low and sell high.

    va_investor said...
    No the point isn't to buy and sell, it is to buy and hold for the long term.

    You are both partly right and partly wrong. The point is to BUY LOW and then HOLD FOR THE LONG-TERM. As Philip Fisher--who was a great influence on Warren Buffett--wrote, "the best time to sell a stock is almost never." The same would apply to a good real estate investment. It is unlikely that you can buy low today, however.

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  62. I disagree with you VA. There are plenty of people who don't want or demand granite, and I'm one of them. My question is where are the new homes that are not being built without granite and stainless steel? The builders aren't building those kinds of homes..the condos come automatically with the granite already in them. As far as the whatever happened to a starter home question..I have a better one..how long do people usually stay in their first home (starter home) and if it's going to take me 15 years to get to the point where I can move up is it really worth it? I could move to a transitional neighborhood, but how long do I want to stay there..and since wages have been flat for quite a while and I would like to have some children what do I do about the school system? Since 50% of my income is paying for this home that leaves out the private school option. I'd like to buy, but I think there's this real smugness coming from some of these comments that first time buyers don't want to work. Sure I have no problem buying a fixer upper, but what I've seen when I've gone to open houses is homes in DC that original owners have allowed to go to squat and they're asking me to pay to do the upkeep to their homes based on last year's frenzy. I don't think that's a good financial move on my part. I don't know how some of the owners rationalize the prices for these homes in DC.

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  63. VA, you said:

    "I don't think it is more expensive than it was in the early 80's..."

    That is completely false. If you believe that, you are a fraud.

    The early '80's, as I said above, was a time of deep recession in this country. Unemployment, on a national level, went to 10%. In industrial areas of our country, it went much higher. Foreclosures were going through the roof due to job losses.

    To compare Summer 2006 to the "early 80's" is false, nothing more, nothing less.

    To encourage anyone to "buy now" because "I don't think it's more expensive than the early 80's" is pure real estate agent drivel.

    It is orders of magnitude more expensive now, as measured by income levels and affordability. To present any other argument comparing the timeframes you chose is, again, misleading and disingenuous, to say the least.

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  64. "I don't think it is more expensive than it was in the early 80's..."

    va_investor, when you say "it", what are you referrring to? Home prices, monthly payments, or something else?

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  65. monthly cost as a percent of income.

    dc, I was out there looking at houses and condo's. Were you?

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  66. Va_Investor,

    I was out there too and you are correct about both the 18% interest rate and the high percentage of income required to buy.

    Every generation likes to think they have it toughest. Personally, I'm not worried about the young ones on here though, as they'll come to the realization eventually that they're not buying now not because "it's too expensive out there" but because it's too soon for them. They bluntly aren't far enough into their careers to be earning enough to own a home. The ones that worry me are the middle-aged individuals who have sold their homes with the expectation of making a killing by buying back similar homes for half the price after Armagedon occurs. These are the "rapture people". Gambling just like the flippers but without the realization that easy earnings can just as easily turn out to be easy losses. The third group are the ones that you have refered to a "failure to launch". They'll always find a reason to not buy. People ask us what we are doing on this blog. I think the question would be better directed to them since they are here to get reinforcement for their longheld beliefs that renting is better than buying. They contribute little if anything to the conversation of whether there is a bubble and what one can do to buy well despite any market. They just want to keep hearing "you did the right thing to NEVER buy ...ever ever!"

    ReplyDelete
  67. Va Investor,

    I'm not your contemporary, but here's a page supporting your memory: http://www.mbaa.org/FreddieMacPrimaryMortgageMarketSurvey.htm

    September and October 1981: Average mortage rate 18.1% with 2 points. Ouch!

    And the cost of that $170,000 (inflation adjusted) house? $2,575 per month (100% financed). The cost of the "same" house in 2005 at $440,000? $2,598. (100% financed at the average 2005 rate of 5.86%)

    I'll let other opine as to the significance of the $23/month difference.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Thank you data miner.

    dc_too are you out there? You practically called me a liar.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Data miner; thank you for posting such useful information.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Exactly! There are a lot of people selling their $500,000 home who plan to buy back into the area a few years later paying around $400,000-425,000.

    All I can say is good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  71. “The ones that worry me are the middle-aged individuals who have sold their homes with the expectation of making a killing by buying back similar homes for half the price after Armagedon occurs. These are the "rapture people". Gambling just like the flippers but without the realization that easy earnings can just as easily turn out to be easy losses.”




    Exactly! There are a lot of people selling their $500,000 home who plan to buy back into the area a few years later paying around $400,000-425,000.

    All I can say is good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  72. What was the average cost of a home in the '80s?

    ReplyDelete
  73. I remember in '82 or '83 looking at unrenovated houses in Pimmit Hills (Tyson's-Falls Church) for around 80K. The area was "sketchy" and the houses depressing.

    Also looked at brick colonials in Silver Spring (sligo - four corners) for 100-120K. Nicer homes/area - but no major upgrades.

    Bogus condo's at seven corners (falls church) were going for around 50 to 60K. Too depressing to consider living there, for me at least.

    ReplyDelete
  74. "Bogus condo's at seven corners (falls church) were going for around 50 to 60K. Too depressing to consider living there, for me at least."

    Amen to that.

    ReplyDelete
  75. VA_Investor / Data Miner:

    According to Freddie Mac, the annual average for that year (1981) - and the highest recorded historically - was 16.63. I'm not sure I'd base home affordability on two months of 18% rates of that year. But the point is certainly well-taken; fully financed 30 yr at 16%.63 (1981) and 6.5% (2006):

    170k @ 16.63% / 30 yr: $ $ 2,372.64 a Month
    440k @ 6.5% / 30 yr: $ 2,781.10 a Month

    $400 difference, not counting taxes, HOA fees (or condo fees), etc. We'll call taxes a wash (for fun), and even ignore HOA/condo (though we shouldn't).

    We'll ignore for a moment the trend for most people to put 10-20% down before buying, thus securing some equity right away, even though this is increasingly rare.

    A significant difference in our historical model is the inversion of the interest rates and the effect that has on long-term affordability. In the 1980s, people bought homes (usually) with money down and 30 year fixed at historically high, and could hope for or even expect interest rates to decrease over the lifetime of the loan (allowing re-financing to lower rates). In 2005, people bought homes (increasingly, upwards of 40-50%) with adjustable-rate mortgages at historically low rates, and they can only expect their rates to flatten (at best) or rise (sometimes astronomically).

    The market in the 80s flattened/fell because of affordability issues. We have affordability issues now that are more expensive ($400 a month) than when we experienced the highest historical interest rates. In other words, 1981 median housing was less expensive ($400, give or take) than now.

    Why should I expect real estate to do anything but decline right now, when it declined with less price pressure in the past? This is an honest question.

    Freddie Mac chart of historic rates:
    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    ReplyDelete
  76. h,

    The market in the 80's flattened due to economic reasons - recession.

    I graduated into a recession in 1980. Interest rates continued to spiral up.

    My question relates to the basic "cost of housing" as a percent of income. If it turned out "ok" to have bought then, then why is it not ok to buy now (provided you are not a "flipper"). This being in terms of buying a house as a home, with plans to stay awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  77. btw, the silence is deafening from today's 20 somethings as to the "cost" of owning. It is no more discouraging today than it was when I was "starting out".

    ReplyDelete
  78. H,

    What about wage growth? When I have a little more time I'll look it up, but my first guess is that it has been significant. I also know that several people here have made claims about wage stagnation, but those claims should be examined carefully.

    ReplyDelete
  79. H,

    One more thing, why 6.5%? Bankrate.com lists the mortgage average today at 5.97%.

    ReplyDelete
  80. VA_Investor,
    I have said consistently that it is "ok" to buy now under certain circumstances. But to pretend that home prices are not as (or more) expensive they've ever been, adjusted for inflation and accounting for interest rates - well, it just ain't true.

    See above, or check out this index of existing American housing prices (published in the NY Times).

    Or read this May 2005 article in USA Today (emphasis mine):

    Today, a typical existing home costs 3.5 times a median family income, compared with a longstanding 2.7 ratio, according to Goldman Sachs, which says affordability is still not too bad because interest rates are low. But in hot markets on the coasts, price ratios are near peak levels of 1981 and 1989, which were followed by some sharp corrections. The earlier price-ratio peaks occurred when interest rates were at highs, not lows, however. If the price gains continue, affordability could become the worst ever in those pricey areas within the next year, the firm says.

    Also see the recent statistics that show wage growth for 90% of Americans is - and has been - flat, at best. We can also debate the effects of inflation, energy prices, insurance costs, property taxes, HOA/condo fees, and mortgage insurance (higher monthly cost due to no down payment).

    But you are right - everyone (including you) believes that things are most "discouraging" when they are the ones "starting out." Sometimes it happens to be true, in more than one case.

    I am curious however - how does today's home price to income ratio compare to that in the 80s?

    **

    Data Miner -- 6% runs $300/ monthly over 1981 16% prices ($100 difference). But I chose 6.5% based on quick calculation from a scan of 2006 average rates (hasty calculation: 3 months above, 3 months below, 1 month even): http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    Maybe you can track down home price to income ratio historically and today?

    ReplyDelete
  81. So 20somethings should run out and purchase right now..because it was just as expensive in the '80s.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Data Miner,
    Didn't see your first question re: wage growth until after my response above. From all accounts that I've seen, wage growth has fallen behind inflation. I've not seen a statistic that says otherwise, but I'd be happy to discuss otherwise if you track it down.

    http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_10292004
    http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2006/nf20060117_7351_db084.htm

    This one breaks down low, middle, and upper incomes:

    http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_20060111

    ReplyDelete
  83. Not necesarily buy, but quit whining. Buy if you are long term: there are unique benefits to having a low-rate loan when rates increase. Like selling via assumption or wrap=around financing if you are forced to relocate.

    You probably have to be over 40 to know these concepts.

    ReplyDelete
  84. I love how celebrating the run-up of prices is fine, but voicing trepidation about affordability is "whining." Classic.

    Almost as classic as commenting on another person's age on the Internet.

    ReplyDelete
  85. I don't think this is about age. Affordability problems exist..whether you claim the cost of homeownership was the same in the 80's or not. I'm sure there are plenty of people who are out of their twenties who fall into the parameters of the affordable housing programs discussed in the Washington Post over the weekend like the one in Fairfax. And for the record I'd venture to believe that most people paid down a lot ore money wen purchasing in the past than they do now. However, I don't know that as fact because I don't have the statistics in front of me.

    ReplyDelete
  86. It is expensive to own a home in the D.C. area. Always has been, always will be. For some it will never be an option.

    It is, however, no more expensive than in prior times. So that excuse should be put to rest.

    ReplyDelete
  87. It is, however, no more expensive than in prior times. So that excuse should be put to rest.

    Va-Investor = Credibility shot

    ReplyDelete
  88. Yeh, take my remarks in context please. See data miner's analysis for ownership costs in the early 80's.

    ReplyDelete
  89. VA_Investor,
    I have shown that it is in fact more expensive now (between $300-$400 a month, when today’s prices and interest rates are compared to highest annual interest rates in the 1980s, which was 16% for 1981). I'm perfectly willing to have my math questioned (you haven't done that), or to listen to alternate interpretations of the math (you haven't done that either), or to even listen to an adjusted claim, but this habit of ignoring counter-arguments and declaring the discussion settled, in your favor no less, is quite tiresome (to borrow a word you used in a different conversation earlier).

    ReplyDelete
  90. h,

    I don't agree with the interest rate you are using. But let's go back to where the affordability issue first came up above.

    I am referring to dc_too calling me a fraud. data miner clearly refures that nonsense.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Cherrypicking the two months of highest interest rates on historical record just before housing declined in the 1980s hardly recommends your - or data miner's - argument.

    Data Miner picked the highest on record: 18%, which was from September and October of '81. I chose the annual rate for that year, also the *highest annual rate* on record. Our stats both came from Freddie Mac:
    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    I even adjusted the interest rate I used for 2006 to a very low 6% (lower than Freddie Mac records for 2006 at all), and *still* came up with a $300 difference per month.

    1981: Flat/Declining Home prices in DC
    http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/washington.html

    1981: Top of the slide down from the 1970's boom:
    http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif

    My sources are transparent and explained. I'd certainly appreciate a reciprocal respect when you opt to disagree.

    ReplyDelete
  92. The general point about relative affordability is getting lost in arguments about small differences in interest rates.

    I would appreciate hearing from dc_too regarding affordability.

    h, my point is that my generation did not have any cake-walk buying our first homes either.

    ReplyDelete
  93. va_investor said... monthly cost as a percent of income. (August 28, 2006 5:19 PM)

    This was a specific discussion about monthly cost that *you* started, that you claimed was supported by data miner's numbers, which you cheerfully acknowledged as evidence, and that I subsequently refuted with a perfectly reasonable argument that I even allowed was open to discussion. And now that's all too terribly specific, things really were hard back in the early 80s?

    Current problems with affordability doesn't negate that very difficult, troubling times I'm sure you encountered in your youth. But I have already explained why it is *better* to have bought with lower prices and higher interest rates (which can be refinanced to lower rates for lower monthly payments) than higher prices and lower interest rates (which will only go up). I did this in conjunction with back-of-the-envelope math to show that even with low interest rates, current monthly median prices exceed 1981 monthly prices based on median home cost (adjusted for inflation) and annual rate of 16% (from Freddie Mac). The year was chosen by Data Miner (with your enthusiastic support) as the year of highest mortgage rates.

    This is directly related to affordability. Honestly.

    ReplyDelete
  94. doesn't = don't. Before the grammar police call me out.

    ReplyDelete
  95. H,

    Some more back of the napkin for you. I took NVAR's price for a median home in 1981: $100,050, and used BLS' inflation calculator to determine what it would be worth today: $214,960.

    The actual price is $538,144. This is 250% of the inflation adjusted value.

    I then went to the Census Bureau's statistics for mean household income: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/h03ar.html

    The 1981 mean income for the middle 20th percentile was $18,981. Adjusted for inflation to 2005 dollars this would be $40,820.

    The actual mean income for 2005 is $46,301. This is 113% of the inflation adjusted value.

    I haven't run the numbers for interest rate difference, but I doubt that a 10% swing on the interest rate (16% vs 6%) will account for the huge percentage gain housing has made over income.

    Therefore, I would tend to doubt that as a percent of income, housing debt is the same now as it was in the early 1980s.

    My $0.02.

    ReplyDelete
  96. VA - You and I have had strong differences of opinion in the past. You said, in this thread somewhere, that houses were no less expensive in the early '80's than now. That is baloney.

    Median prices then were just shy of three times median income, nationwide, and a darn sight lower in many places. Your comment was reckless but I apologize if my reaction offended you.

    In the New York City metro area (a noted high-price area - I am not talking Appalachia), in the early 80's, the median house price was about $70,000 vs. median family income of about $25,000.

    It was also, as I said, a time of deep recession. For what it's worth, median sales prices, as we all know, do not reflect seller concessions or "move-up" situations where a family gets a little more house for its dollar. Both of these conditions are re-surfacing now and were certainly present in the early '80's.

    It is also misleading to say that "interest rates were 18% in the early 80's," as the inference is that it was a permanent condition during those years, which is false. Yes, mortgage rates spiked briefly to 18% but you can't paint that era with the broad brush of 18% mortgages.

    A family at median income in NY at that time needed to save about 7 months income to meet the 20% downpayment requirement. And don't forget that mortgage rates do not exist in a vacuum - families were assisted by a material rate of return on there savings accounts. Who here remembers 10% a year on a passbook savings account? I do.


    A family at median income in those days would spend 40% of its income on a fixed-rate, 30 year mortgage, with the required 20% down IF THEY BORROWED DURING THE THREE OR SO MONTH PERIOD OF 18% RATES.

    Even so, it is THE AMOUNT BORROWED that makes the difference, not the rate. Everyone who bought at the highest possible rate was subsequently able to refinance to lower notes BECAUSE THEY HAD EQUITY TO BEGIN WITH.

    But the discussion here is about affordability. I think a little belt tightening to save a downpayment and then lock in a fixed rate mortgage is affordable.

    You think that no downpayment, adjustable rate mortgages are tantamount to affordability.

    We already know that young families who bought in the early 80's by and large did well. We shall see how well the latest craze treats those who "afforded a home" with no savings and eschewed the security of fixed paper, at historicly low interest - exactly the opposite of '82.

    ReplyDelete
  97. H said...
    doesn't = don't. Before the grammar police call me out.

    Too late. Once a crime is committed, you can't undo it. You're going to Grammar County Jail, Mister!

    ReplyDelete
  98. dc_too,

    We were making about that median income then. I think house prices were higher here. I don't know exactly when ARMS came on the scene, but I had a one-year arm in 1983 and in 1984. In 1981 I was "lucky" enough to assume a 12.5% fixed rate.

    We had 95% loans with PMI and got "decorating allowances" to cover the 5% down. In other words, no money down loans were available.

    We also had a full=blown recession to deal with. I remember savings rates and 14% CD's as well.

    I am just attempting to point out that housing was very expensive. I am not a math expert, so I defer to h and data miner for the exact numbers.

    What I have claimed earlier is hardly "fraud". Today's costs as a percent of income are not that much different.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Lot's of bits and pieces.

    H, I agree, two months at 18% is not representative, but those two months did make a big impression on the home buying public. At least I have certainly heard it mentioned enough by people of a certain age. However, 2 years should be representative of the early years of a decade and for 2 years, 1981 and 1982, interest rates averaged over 16%.

    Mytwocents, 16% is 266% of 6% so I think you have resolved the question as to whether housing is more affordable now than in the early 80's.

    ReplyDelete
  100. I don't know why what started out as a benign comment about relative affordability of housing now vs. the early 80's has mushroomed into an unfriendly argument, but let's put it to rest.

    I agree with h that there is a difference in that the 80's saw a gradual decrease of rates which continued for 20 years. This hardly seems likely today.

    Does anyone expect rates to drop appreciably from today's levels? I don't. So rates will not likely be a "bailout".

    I do agree with Lance that increasing rates can offset monthly savings brought about by lower prices. For people like me (investors-loooonnngg term) monthly cost vs. rent is really all I care about.

    As I have stated before, I do expect a correction similar to the 90's. I do not see rents equally mortgage costs ever.

    ReplyDelete
  101. sorry, "equalling".

    p.s. apologies to all offended by my "bitter and depressed" remark. I hate to see people make life-long decisions based on a one-time event. I was attempting to show that that was what the commenter had done - to his great detriment.

    ReplyDelete
  102. If monthly costs, relative to rent, are all you care about, all I can say, is run, don't walk, from any real estate "investment" in our area today. Be patient, things will change.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Thanks for the advice. I'm sure it will be of great benefit to me.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  105. BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!

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    ReplyDelete
  106. BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

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    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

    BUBBLEMETER TRAFFIC IN DRAMATIC DECLINE!!! THE BUBBLEMETER HAS BURST!!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/frm5m

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