Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Mortgage Activity Down To May 2002 Levels

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage loan application was down to May 2002 levels.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 28. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 527.6, a decrease of 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 533.8 one week earlier. This is the lowest that the index has been since May 2002. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week but was down 29.0 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 37.0 percent of total applications from 35.6 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 27.8 percent of total applications from 28.6 percent the previous week. The ARM share is at its lowest since March 2004.
Calculated Risk has a superb post with great graphs. Obviously, this is more evidence of the significant declines occuring in the housing market.

68 comments:

  1. Once again, bubbleheads show their ignorance of economics. Saudi princes and rich playboys don't need mortgages to buy properties. There is nothing to worry about. This only shows the stupidity of all those bitter renters who are too unimaginative to inherit large sums of money.

    Just kidding. I wanted to see how it feels to be on the "other side" for a minute.

    A Redskins fan

    ReplyDelete
  2. Your neighbor in SSAugust 02, 2006 1:26 PM

    I love to hate you, Injun' Lover.

    Any who (semi)publicly proclaims that he/she is a "Redskins Fan" is not someone I'd choose to associate with. No love lost though; I'm sure you'd feel the same about me. (If I chose to reveal portions of my personality through a housing blog)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Now *that* was funny. :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. david, next time may be you should
    visit a new SFH site and report on that.

    http://www.centexhomes.com/Washington-DC/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Perhaps a report on SFH group house rentals would be relevant; especially since they are touted as one of the only logical options for putting a roof over one's head.

    ReplyDelete
  6. But wait during my search for a home, I've had several realtors suggest buying beyond my current means and getting a roommate as a means of paying the mortgage

    ReplyDelete
  7. "Any who (semi)publicly proclaims that he/she is a "Redskins Fan" is not someone I'd choose to associate with."

    So then I take it you must rent, right? I mean, I would think it would be pretty foolish to pay 500,000 bucks to live in Danny Snyder's hometown, around millions of Redskins fans, if you hate them. But it's your money- or your bank's.

    BTW- do you know the words to the team song yet? It's quite a catchy tune.

    HTTR! (That means "Hail to the Redskins", in case you didn't know)

    A Redskins fan

    ReplyDelete
  8. "But wait during my search for a home, I've had several realtors suggest buying beyond my current means and getting a roommate as a means of paying the mortgage "

    HOW LOW WILL THEY GO?

    ReplyDelete
  9. wvu_84 said...
    "But wait during my search for a home, I've had several realtors suggest buying beyond my current means and getting a roommate as a means of paying the mortgage "

    HOW LOW WILL THEY GO?

    ---------------------------
    So what's the difference? Why not just get a roommate and rent..while saving for a down payment instead of buying something I know I can't afford without help.

    ReplyDelete
  10. In all fairness, in can be a clever (but tough) strategy for an enterprising college student (maybe with some help from parents) in a college town with reasonable housing prices to buy a house at the beginning of their college career, get some roommates who pay rent, and use their rent and her own "rental" payment to pay the mortgage. It's not a bad idea. I wouldn't recommend it to students around here, though!

    ReplyDelete
  11. "So what's the difference? Why not just get a roommate and rent..while saving for a down payment instead of buying something I know I can't afford without help."

    Good ideal dude!

    ReplyDelete
  12. "Redskin" is a racial slur.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anon 1:17
    Wow 2 people bought condos in Clarendon. So what?!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anon, have you counted the listings in that building?

    32 listings, man. I almost pity BT.

    What's really fun is checking out the Rhaphsody suckers on U-street. About half the buyers appear to be flippers who bought in June and are trying to sell in July. Hilarious!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Your neighbor in SSAugust 02, 2006 4:42 PM

    Here are comps in Clarendon going back one full year: (expend your window to see it all)

    RPC ADDRESS SALE DATE SALE PRICE DEED BK/PG CODE
    18-025-347 1021 N GARFIELD ST 737 7/19/2006 $545,000 4002/2626
    18-025-337 1021 N GARFIELD ST 723 6/29/2006 $389,900 4001/0299
    18-025-142 1021 N GARFIELD ST 319 6/26/2006 $415,000 3995/0683
    18-025-169 1021 N GARFIELD ST 346 6/24/2006 $410,000 3994/1597
    18-025-036 1021 N GARFIELD ST B44 6/16/2006 $399,000 3992/1953
    18-025-410 1021 N GARFIELD ST 943 6/2/2006 $469,000 3989/2017
    18-025-165 1021 N GARFIELD ST 342 5/8/2006 $625,000 3978/0121
    18-025-335 1021 N GARFIELD ST 721 4/8/2006 $475,000 3968/2677
    18-025-179 1021 N GARFIELD ST 408 3/30/2006 $355,000 3964/1790
    18-025-369 1021 N GARFIELD ST 815 3/21/2006 $635,000 3961/2466
    18-025-228 1021 N GARFIELD ST 509 3/9/2006 $815,000 3957/2444
    18-025-328 1021 N GARFIELD ST 714 2/27/2006 $469,900 3955/1323
    18-025-297 1021 N GARFIELD ST 630 2/24/2006 $469,000 3953/2031 B
    18-025-243 1021 N GARFIELD ST 524 2/1/2006 $590,950 3947/0638
    18-025-069 1021 N GARFIELD ST 141 1/27/2006 $595,000 3945/1031
    18-025-050 1021 N GARFIELD ST 118 1/13/2006 $350,400 3942/0441 B
    18-025-377 1021 N GARFIELD ST 828 1/6/2006 $742,400 3940/0606 B
    18-025-049 1021 N GARFIELD ST 117 12/30/2005 $399,500 3938/2573 B
    18-025-048 1021 N GARFIELD ST 116 12/29/2005 $396,900 3939/1555 B
    18-025-081 1021 N GARFIELD ST 205 12/15/2005 $765,000 3934/1467
    18-025-399 1021 N GARFIELD ST 915 12/7/2005 $650,000 3931/0584
    18-025-397 1021 N GARFIELD ST 913 12/2/2005 $779,000 3930/2329
    18-025-285 1021 N GARFIELD ST 618 12/2/2005 $614,600 3934/1821
    18-025-025 1021 N GARFIELD ST B33 11/18/2005 $450,000 3925/2423
    18-025-121 1021 N GARFIELD ST 246 11/18/2005 $420,000 3925/1290
    18-025-325 1021 N GARFIELD ST 711 11/17/2005 $346,450 3961/1795 7
    18-025-341 1021 N GARFIELD ST 730 11/16/2005 $530,000 3924/1566 B
    18-025-034 1021 N GARFIELD ST B42 11/15/2005 $568,000 3924/0374
    18-025-035 1021 N GARFIELD ST B43 10/31/2005 $425,000 3919/1576
    18-025-412 1021 N GARFIELD ST 945 10/28/2005 $469,000 3918/0128
    18-025-059 1021 N GARFIELD ST 131 10/28/2005 $590,000 3921/2148
    18-025-292 1021 N GARFIELD ST 625 10/27/2005 $416,800 3917/1725
    18-025-134 1021 N GARFIELD ST 311 10/21/2005 $474,850 3915/1353
    18-025-344 1021 N GARFIELD ST 733 10/18/2005 $449,400 3913/2587 B
    18-025-247 1021 N GARFIELD ST 528 10/12/2005 $463,000 3940/1515
    18-025-124 1021 N GARFIELD ST 301 10/12/2005 $640,000 3911/1555
    18-025-209 1021 N GARFIELD ST 438 9/27/2005 $589,900 3905/1112
    18-025-027 1021 N GARFIELD ST B35 9/23/2005 $335,000 3904/2274
    18-025-372 1021 N GARFIELD ST 818 9/20/2005 $660,000 3905/0385
    18-025-074 1021 N GARFIELD ST 146 9/19/2005 $452,000 3905/0178
    18-025-109 1021 N GARFIELD ST 234 9/14/2005 $475,000 3902/0476
    18-025-160 1021 N GARFIELD ST 337 9/13/2005 $705,000 3901/0086
    18-025-303 1021 N GARFIELD ST 636 9/13/2005 $533,400 3900/2523 B
    18-025-113 1021 N GARFIELD ST 238 9/12/2005 $545,000 3901/2072
    18-025-223 1021 N GARFIELD ST 504 9/8/2005 $438,500 3899/2523
    18-025-294 1021 N GARFIELD ST 627 9/6/2005 $438,000 3900/0952 B
    18-025-187 1021 N GARFIELD ST 416 9/2/2005 $564,000 3898/0529 B
    18-025-181 1021 N GARFIELD ST 410 9/1/2005 $699,900 3900/2677
    18-025-287 1021 N GARFIELD ST 620 9/1/2005 $449,900 3896/2595
    18-025-305 1021 N GARFIELD ST 638 8/31/2005 $524,900 3896/1265 B
    18-025-343 1021 N GARFIELD ST 732 8/31/2005 $551,400 3897/2076 B
    18-025-328 1021 N GARFIELD ST 714 8/31/2005 $527,843 3896/1201
    18-025-396 1021 N GARFIELD ST 907 8/31/2005 $673,400 3896/1295 B
    18-025-147 1021 N GARFIELD ST 324 8/30/2005 $639,900 3895/1496 B
    18-025-423 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1015 8/30/2005 $844,400 3896/0188 B
    18-025-364 1021 N GARFIELD ST 806 8/30/2005 $375,400 3897/1436 B
    18-025-290 1021 N GARFIELD ST 623 8/30/2005 $364,900 3922/0644 B
    18-025-368 1021 N GARFIELD ST 814 8/29/2005 $577,400 3894/2094 B
    18-025-278 1021 N GARFIELD ST 611 8/29/2005 $442,400 3896/1159 B
    18-025-384 1021 N GARFIELD ST 842 8/26/2005 $404,900 3896/1136 B
    18-025-389 1021 N GARFIELD ST 847 8/26/2005 $411,400 3893/1588 B
    18-025-108 1021 N GARFIELD ST 233 8/26/2005 $373,400 3893/1620 B
    18-025-153 1021 N GARFIELD ST 330 8/26/2005 $524,900 3893/1794 B
    18-025-182 1021 N GARFIELD ST 411 8/26/2005 $447,900 3893/1724 B
    18-025-405 1021 N GARFIELD ST 921 8/26/2005 $659,900 3893/1686 B
    18-025-422 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1014 8/26/2005 $554,900 3897/0124 B
    18-025-406 1021 N GARFIELD ST 929 8/25/2005 $618,400 3893/1659
    18-025-137 1021 N GARFIELD ST 314 8/25/2005 $447,900 3892/2106 B
    18-025-417 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1002 8/25/2005 $427,900 3892/1983 B
    18-025-410 1021 N GARFIELD ST 943 8/25/2005 $409,900 3893/1558 B
    18-025-418 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1003 8/24/2005 $440,000 3892/0554 B
    18-025-021 1021 N GARFIELD ST B29 8/24/2005 $413,900 3892/0577 B
    18-025-070 1021 N GARFIELD ST 142 8/24/2005 $539,400 3892/1692 B
    18-025-044 1021 N GARFIELD ST 109 8/23/2005 $646,900 3898/1629 B
    18-025-334 1021 N GARFIELD ST 720 8/23/2005 $428,900 3891/1627 B
    18-025-306 1021 N GARFIELD ST 639 8/22/2005 $406,400 3891/0628 B
    18-025-346 1021 N GARFIELD ST 735 8/22/2005 $540,000 3897/0262 B
    18-025-261 1021 N GARFIELD ST 542 8/22/2005 $594,900 3891/1596 B
    18-025-042 1021 N GARFIELD ST 107 8/19/2005 $650,000 3890/1334
    18-025-312 1021 N GARFIELD ST 645 8/19/2005 $413,400 3892/1396 B
    18-025-126 1021 N GARFIELD ST 303 8/19/2005 $390,900 3890/1993 B
    18-025-350 1021 N GARFIELD ST 740 8/18/2005 $427,700 3891/1484 B
    18-025-392 1021 N GARFIELD ST 902 8/18/2005 $409,900 3890/0819 B
    18-025-383 1021 N GARFIELD ST 841 8/18/2005 $421,900 3890/0865 B
    18-025-152 1021 N GARFIELD ST 329 8/18/2005 $419,900 3890/0895 B
    18-025-256 1021 N GARFIELD ST 537 8/18/2005 $623,400 3890/0868 B
    18-025-397 1021 N GARFIELD ST 913 8/17/2005 $686,000 3889/0603 B
    18-025-400 1021 N GARFIELD ST 916 8/17/2005 $632,300 3889/0469 B
    18-025-420 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1005 8/17/2005 $555,900 3889/0489 B
    18-025-326 1021 N GARFIELD ST 712 8/17/2005 $442,900 3889/0573 B
    18-025-026 1021 N GARFIELD ST B34 8/16/2005 $364,900 3888/1672 B
    18-025-357 1021 N GARFIELD ST 747 8/15/2005 $437,900 3888/1528 B
    18-025-259 1021 N GARFIELD ST 540 8/15/2005 $485,000 3887/1913
    18-025-321 1021 N GARFIELD ST 706 8/15/2005 $359,900 3888/1500 B
    18-025-336 1021 N GARFIELD ST 722 8/15/2005 $667,900 3888/1638 B
    18-025-061 1021 N GARFIELD ST 133 8/12/2005 $369,900 3887/0177 B
    18-025-325 1021 N GARFIELD ST 711 8/12/2005 $732,400 3887/1194 B
    18-025-081 1021 N GARFIELD ST 205 8/12/2005 $722,400 3887/1845 B
    18-025-304 1021 N GARFIELD ST 637 8/12/2005 $624,900 3887/1799 B
    18-025-255 1021 N GARFIELD ST 536 8/12/2005 $572,600 3887/0127 B
    18-025-106 1021 N GARFIELD ST 231 8/12/2005 $544,900 3887/0273 B
    18-025-431 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1032 8/12/2005 $709,900 3887/0307 B
    18-025-054 1021 N GARFIELD ST 126 8/12/2005 $538,400 3888/1611 B
    18-025-190 1021 N GARFIELD ST 419 8/12/2005 $480,000 3887/0934
    18-025-435 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1047 8/12/2005 $436,900 3887/0213 B
    18-025-414 1021 N GARFIELD ST 947 8/11/2005 $418,098 3888/0192 B
    18-025-412 1021 N GARFIELD ST 945 8/11/2005 $424,900 3886/1118 B
    18-025-173 1021 N GARFIELD ST 402 8/11/2005 $434,900 3886/2255 B
    18-025-239 1021 N GARFIELD ST 520 8/11/2005 $400,900 3886/2285 B
    18-025-300 1021 N GARFIELD ST 633 8/11/2005 $437,400 3886/0595 B
    18-025-415 1021 N GARFIELD ST 948 8/11/2005 $422,400 3887/0243 B
    18-025-209 1021 N GARFIELD ST 438 8/11/2005 $497,900 3886/1078 B
    18-025-424 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1016 8/11/2005 $828,400 3887/0337 B
    18-025-426 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1018 8/11/2005 $672,900 3887/0373 B
    18-025-372 1021 N GARFIELD ST 818 8/11/2005 $569,900 3886/1038 B
    18-025-112 1021 N GARFIELD ST 237 8/10/2005 $579,400 3885/2305 B
    18-025-382 1021 N GARFIELD ST 834 8/10/2005 $827,900 3885/2273 B
    18-025-395 1021 N GARFIELD ST 905 8/10/2005 $815,100 3889/1014 B
    18-025-030 1021 N GARFIELD ST B38 8/10/2005 $447,900 3885/2196 B
    18-025-371 1021 N GARFIELD ST 817 8/10/2005 $533,900 3885/1974 B
    18-025-379 1021 N GARFIELD ST 830 8/10/2005 $549,900 3885/1947 B
    18-025-398 1021 N GARFIELD ST 914 8/10/2005 $504,900 3885/2166 B
    18-025-289 1021 N GARFIELD ST 622 8/10/2005 $429,900 3887/1887 B
    18-025-296 1021 N GARFIELD ST 629 8/10/2005 $443,598 3885/2021 B
    18-025-238 1021 N GARFIELD ST 519 8/10/2005 $397,700 3885/2235 B
    18-025-403 1021 N GARFIELD ST 919 8/10/2005 $425,400 3885/2381 B
    18-025-404 1021 N GARFIELD ST 920 8/10/2005 $425,400 3886/2326 B
    18-025-333 1021 N GARFIELD ST 719 8/10/2005 $434,900 3886/1002 B
    18-025-349 1021 N GARFIELD ST 739 8/9/2005 $434,300 3886/0999 B
    18-025-340 1021 N GARFIELD ST 729 8/9/2005 $461,900 3885/0039 B
    18-025-375 1021 N GARFIELD ST 821 8/9/2005 $459,900 3884/2697 B
    18-025-088 1021 N GARFIELD ST 212 8/9/2005 $384,900 3885/0001 B
    18-025-358 1021 N GARFIELD ST 748 8/9/2005 $405,900 3885/2125 B
    18-025-362 1021 N GARFIELD ST 804 8/9/2005 $419,900 3885/2148 B
    18-025-348 1021 N GARFIELD ST 738 8/9/2005 $560,900 3885/1061 B
    18-025-347 1021 N GARFIELD ST 737 8/9/2005 $490,000 3884/2736 B
    18-025-411 1021 N GARFIELD ST 944 8/9/2005 $435,400 3885/0875 B
    18-025-320 1021 N GARFIELD ST 705 8/9/2005 $734,900 3885/2351 B
    18-025-018 1021 N GARFIELD ST B26 8/9/2005 $611,898 3885/1497 B
    18-025-285 1021 N GARFIELD ST 618 8/8/2005 $614,600 3884/0647 B
    18-025-282 1021 N GARFIELD ST 615 8/8/2005 $581,900 3884/0343 B
    18-025-309 1021 N GARFIELD ST 642 8/8/2005 $571,900 3884/0722 B
    18-025-292 1021 N GARFIELD ST 625 8/8/2005 $383,900 3884/0387 B
    18-025-102 1021 N GARFIELD ST 227 8/8/2005 $423,900 3884/0502 B
    18-025-373 1021 N GARFIELD ST 819 8/8/2005 $416,900 3885/2059 B
    18-025-385 1021 N GARFIELD ST 843 8/8/2005 $408,400 3884/0418 B
    18-025-387 1021 N GARFIELD ST 845 8/8/2005 $441,400 3884/1718 B
    18-025-322 1021 N GARFIELD ST 707 8/8/2005 $433,400 3884/0415 B
    18-025-313 1021 N GARFIELD ST 646 8/8/2005 $410,900 3885/2091 B
    18-025-416 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1001 8/7/2005 $671,400 3889/2518 B
    18-025-260 1021 N GARFIELD ST 541 8/5/2005 $594,900 3884/0623 B
    18-025-085 1021 N GARFIELD ST 209 8/5/2005 $669,900 3884/0538 B
    18-025-338 1021 N GARFIELD ST 727 8/5/2005 $731,900 3883/0754 B
    18-025-380 1021 N GARFIELD ST 831 8/5/2005 $667,900 3883/0311 B
    18-025-434 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1046 8/5/2005 $440,400 3884/1677 B
    18-025-038 1021 N GARFIELD ST 102 8/5/2005 $388,900 3883/1443 B
    18-025-374 1021 N GARFIELD ST 820 8/5/2005 $421,900 3884/0578 B
    18-025-355 1021 N GARFIELD ST 745 8/5/2005 $439,900 3883/1270 B
    18-025-145 1021 N GARFIELD ST 322 8/5/2005 $414,100 3884/0476 B
    18-025-263 1021 N GARFIELD ST 544 8/5/2005 $400,900 3884/0447 B
    18-025-323 1021 N GARFIELD ST 708 8/5/2005 $427,400 3884/0689 B
    18-025-110 1021 N GARFIELD ST 235 8/5/2005 $414,900 3883/1407 B
    18-025-432 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1044 8/4/2005 $424,900 3882/1651 B
    18-025-295 1021 N GARFIELD ST 628 8/4/2005 $436,900 3883/0001 B
    18-025-119 1021 N GARFIELD ST 244 8/4/2005 $377,900 3882/1689 B
    18-025-192 1021 N GARFIELD ST 421 8/4/2005 $429,900 3882/1399 B
    18-025-436 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1048 8/4/2005 $421,900 3883/1367 B
    18-025-393 1021 N GARFIELD ST 903 8/4/2005 $419,098 3882/1446 B
    18-025-428 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1020 8/4/2005 $436,900 3883/1506 B
    18-025-077 1021 N GARFIELD ST 201 8/4/2005 $386,400 3883/1327 B
    18-025-208 1021 N GARFIELD ST 437 8/4/2005 $574,900 3882/1728 B
    18-025-245 1021 N GARFIELD ST 526 8/4/2005 $619,900 3883/0043 B
    18-025-189 1021 N GARFIELD ST 418 8/4/2005 $560,900 3889/2243 B
    18-025-212 1021 N GARFIELD ST 441 8/4/2005 $604,400 3883/1243 B
    18-025-124 1021 N GARFIELD ST 301 8/4/2005 $559,298 3882/1985 B
    18-025-229 1021 N GARFIELD ST 510 8/3/2005 $649,900 3882/1601 B
    18-025-402 1021 N GARFIELD ST 918 8/3/2005 $586,398 3882/0167 B
    18-025-250 1021 N GARFIELD ST 531 8/3/2005 $627,900 3881/2002 B
    18-025-408 1021 N GARFIELD ST 931 8/3/2005 $648,400 3882/1570 B
    18-025-272 1021 N GARFIELD ST 605 8/3/2005 $748,400 3882/1624 B
    18-025-365 1021 N GARFIELD ST 807 8/3/2005 $819,400 3883/1307 B
    18-025-177 1021 N GARFIELD ST 406 8/3/2005 $339,900 3889/0665 B
    18-025-091 1021 N GARFIELD ST 215 8/3/2005 $407,898 3882/0138 B
    18-025-388 1021 N GARFIELD ST 846 8/3/2005 $424,900 3881/2031 B
    18-025-427 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1019 8/3/2005 $436,900 3882/1764 B
    18-025-419 1021 N GARFIELD ST 1004 8/3/2005 $435,900 3881/1055 B
    18-025-394 1021 N GARFIELD ST 904 8/3/2005 $431,400 3881/2332 B
    18-025-335 1021 N GARFIELD ST 721 8/3/2005 $448,900 3885/0071 B
    18-025-367 1021 N GARFIELD ST 813 8/2/2005 $463,400 3881/0525 B
    18-025-381 1021 N GARFIELD ST 832 8/2/2005 $552,900 3880/2719 B
    18-025-391 1021 N GARFIELD ST 901 8/2/2005 $578,400 3881/0551 B
    18-025-370 1021 N GARFIELD ST 816 8/1/2005 $652,600 3880/2649 B
    18-025-359 1021 N GARFIELD ST 801 8/1/2005 $621,300 3880/1326 B
    18-025-059 1021 N GARFIELD ST 131 8/1/2005 $509,900 3880/0180 B
    18-025-339 1021 N GARFIELD ST 728 8/1/2005 $468,900 3880/2497 B
    18-025-040 1021 N GARFIELD ST 104 8/1/2005 $370,900 3880/1295 B

    ReplyDelete
  16. Are you guys upset that inventory is down to its lowest level in months?

    ReplyDelete
  17. It's a new building, idiots.

    ReplyDelete
  18. One building in METRO DC area that is actually selling. Baffling, but this does not convince me that excessive invertory is BS.

    ReplyDelete
  19. " Mortgage Activity Down To May 2002 Levels"

    Now for prices to get back down to those levels and keep on going. My hope for an outcome has been that reversion-to-mean will see prices decline to around their 1999 level, perhaps over-shooting at first. Then I would buy back in.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The fact is that inventory is going down. Sorry to break it to you.

    ReplyDelete
  21. 146 sales in August 05.

    17 sales in all of 06.

    1 sale in all of July.

    32 units on the market right now, at least one of which has an asking price below what the owner paid for it.

    Nope, looks fine to me!

    ReplyDelete
  22. "The fact is that inventory is going down. Sorry to break it to you."

    One building in Claremont is selling alot of units. So what?!What else do you have that proves inventory is going down? David Bubblemeter has presented us alot of data showing increasing inventory.

    ReplyDelete
  23. What else? Just the data:

    http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/DC/Washington/

    http://www.gcaar.com/statistics/2006/dcsf0606.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  24. I think what anony is getting at is that DC inventory is at 11,706, which is below the high of 12,478 reached back in 6/21. This is according to HousingTracker.

    If you look back at that building that Anony discusses, hwoever, you'll find that 16% of it's units are for sale, many by flippers. At least one unit has an asking price below what it's owner paid for it.

    ReplyDelete
  25. "
    If you look back at that building that Anony discusses, hwoever, you'll find that 16% of it's units are for sale, many by flippers. At least one unit has an asking price below what it's owner paid for it. "

    I'm a different anony. I don't care about that building - only the fact that inventory is trending down. Better luck next time, Bubbies.

    ReplyDelete
  26. So if inventory trends back up, you'll come back and say you were wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  27. "So if inventory trends back up, you'll come back and say you were wrong? "

    Are you admitting that you're wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Since inventory is over double what it was last year, and I was the first one to point out that inventory in DC had decreased over the past few weeks (a few threads back), what have I got to admit? You're the one trying to argue that 4 or 5 weeks constitutes a trend.

    Would you care to predict inventories for DC in the next month/3 months/ 6 months?

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  29. Chip said:
    "My hope for an outcome has been that reversion-to-mean will see prices decline to around their 1999 level, perhaps over-shooting at first. Then I would buy back in."

    That ain't gonna happen, Chip. Not nominal prices, anyway. I'd recommend hoping for the inflation-adjusted equivalent of 1997 prices. But that may take over a decade.

    In the meantime, estimate what the current mortgage payments would be on the kind of house you'd like to live in. Then subtract the amount you currently pay in rent, and invest the difference wisely.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Anonymous said:
    "...you're a pretty disgusting human being. My hope is that you get leukemia."

    I think anonymous posters should be banned. They are the ones who are most likely to post hate messages.

    ReplyDelete
  31. According to the HousingTracker website, which I really like, DC area inventory is down from last week and from a couple months ago, but let's put this in perspective. HousingTracker has DC area data from 8/14 last year. Inventory was 5,347 last year. Now (8/1/06) it's 11,706. Median asking prices were 489,000. Now they are 469,900.

    Yes, HousingTracker DC area inventory "peaked" around 6/21 of this year, at 12,469. But it's been moving around the 11,000-12,400 area since then. I don't see a clear downtrend yet. Certainly, it looks like the YOY trend is going to be massibely upward for inventory and slightly downward for nominal asking prices, but we'll know for sure in a couple weeks.

    I fail to see how any analysis of the HousingTracker data could support anything but a deflating housing market hypothesis.

    A Redskins fan

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  32. Feel free to point out houses/apartment buildings in North Arlington where prices are down, year over year.

    Someone posted above the sales records for Clarendon 1021, the most bubblicious of buildings, and even there prices are slightly up overall. Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Some mean people here. Why so bitter?

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  34. My name is Bob. No really, my name is Bob. Therefore what I say here has as much credibility as someone named... let's say named "Sarah in WY" or "Chip".

    ReplyDelete
  35. Prince Bandar sponsors Islamic Art exhibit in Washington DC
    Prince Bandar sponsors Islamic Art exhibit in Washington DC. Ambassador to the United States Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz has sponsored the ...
    www.saudiembassy.net/2004News/News/CulDetail.asp?cIndex=4232 - 30k -

    ReplyDelete
  36. "The Bandar event ended with a private dinner with students, faculty and staff, with the Prince and his entourage returning to Washington, D.C. in a private jet later that night. "

    http://fletcher.tufts.edu/news/2003/10/bandar2.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  37. Inventory usually drops off in late summer, picks up in the fall a little and drops to its lowest level in winter as do sales. The historical inventory and sales graphs posted on this blog show that patern. The recent drop off follows the normal pattern. But, because this drop off is occurring with only 6-7 months of inventory (as measured by pace of sales), it is a bad sign for the bubbleheads. Bubble theory needs a very high ratio of inventory to sales per month to create a substantial drop in prices, real or nominal. It's supply and demand. Right now the supply side of the market is reacting to lower demand by reducing inventory. Bubble theory says that the supply side will react to lower demand by dramaticaly lowering prices. So far, that hasn't happened.

    ReplyDelete
  38. "Feel free to point out houses/apartment buildings in North Arlington where prices are down, year over year."

    Clarendon 1021: Unit 127

    Bought in 6/22/05 for 418K.

    On the market since 6/19/06 for 399K. Not selling after 44 days.

    Let's remember why we're not seeing lower prices yet: Because the condos aren't selling, even at those lower prices. In order for us to actually see lower prices reflected in the statistics, somebody actually has to buy the damn things.

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  39. "In order for us to actually see lower prices reflected in the statistics, somebody actually has to buy the damn things."

    LOL! Best anti-median analysis I've seen.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Anonymous said...
    “The fact is that inventory is going down. Sorry to break it to you.”

    The listings are starting to expire.

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  41. "“The fact is that inventory is going down. Sorry to break it to you.”

    The listings are starting to expire."

    Right, the people just gave up. Maybe you should just give up.

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  42. "Let's remember why we're not seeing lower prices yet: Because the condos aren't selling, even at those lower prices. In order for us to actually see lower prices reflected in the statistics, somebody actually has to buy the damn things. "

    I'm sure you will find some tortured explanation to reconcile this theory with the declining inventory numbers. We're all ears.

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  43. Redskins fan said
    "but let's put this in perspective. HousingTracker has DC area data from 8/14 last year. Inventory was 5,347 last year. Now (8/1/06) it's 11,706. Median asking prices were 489,000. Now they are 469,900."

    So you're looking back one year for "perspective"?

    What a perfect example of the shortsightedness of most bubbleheads.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Inventory is more than twice what is was in mid-August last year.

    If that is your big reduction in inventory, you ain't got a big reduction in inventory.

    Inventory is down a little from a couple months ago. It has been up and down all summer. It remains much, much higher than last year, and prices have come down a little.

    One would expect inventory to continue to decline for the rest of the year. That decline is a seasonal standard, I believe. The issue will be how inventory compares to the same time a year ago. If it remains much higher (as it is now), I think the bubble hypothesis will remain strong.

    A Redskins fan

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  45. My condo building in Kalorama had 3 units for sale in December, 6 units for sale in May, and now after recent sales, there are 3 units for sale.

    Thus, based upon bubbleheads' usual reliance on anecdotal evidence as proof of larger trends, its obvious that inventory has decreased in DC by 50%.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Anonymous said...
    "Right, the people just gave up. Maybe you should just give up."

    Not when I have 600+ homes to chose from that have been on the market 180 days or more.

    ReplyDelete
  47. LOL at critizing me for using year ago numbers. Some housing head came on here and used numbers from a month ago. I pointed out that a better comparison would be last year, and now someone else (maybe the same joker?) comes on and says I need a longer term perspective.

    YOY comparisons show the bubble scenario may be beginning to play out, with the bubble beginning to lose air. The data are certainly consistent with what the first step should be-- a large rise in inventory with slight price falls as sellers resist selling. Over the next couple years, prices should fall more, especially in real terms.

    But, if you want a longer term perspective, what is the traditional relationship between DC area housing prices and DC area median household incomes, and what does that relationship say about current housing prices in the DC area?

    A Redskins fan

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  48. "But, if you want a longer term perspective, what is the traditional relationship between DC area housing prices and DC area median household incomes, and what does that relationship say about current housing prices in the DC area?"

    A Redskins fan,

    The subject is inventory. Why change the subject? Could it be because current inventory levels are at historically normal levels, and are not at stratospheric levels you are claiming (in support of your 70% anticipated price collapse)?

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  49. I have never predicted a 70% pricing collapse. I said that for me personally, most DC area homes would have to be priced at about 30% of their current price for me to be interested. I do think there will be a large REAL price decrease, but nominally I don't know.

    You are the one who is getting off topic when confronted with the real inventory changes YOY.

    You say "normal"-- could you please show me a link with historical DC area inventory data? I think absolute levels are interesting here, and not just "x months supply."

    A Redskins fan

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  50. let me do some back of the envelope estimates. Now, I may make mistakes, so if I do something wrong, please tell me.

    According to HousingTracker, the median asking price in the DC area in August 14, 2005, was 489,000.

    According to the BLS, the CPI is up 4.3 percent June-June (if I understand correctly). So 489,000 bucks in August 2005 would be approximately 510,000 bucks now.

    But in early August 2006, housing tracker says the median DC area house has an asking price of 469,900. That is an approximately 4% nominal loss, but an approximately 8% real loss.

    8% is a pretty steep decline in one year, IMO. I would welcome someone checking my calculations/methods to see if I made any mistakes.

    A Redskins fan

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  51. 8% is a pretty steep decline in one year, IMO. I would welcome someone checking my calculations/methods to see if I made any mistakes.

    To begin, asking price has no relation to the sales price. It may be close, but not close enough.

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  52. Anonymous,

    I've seen sales prices being reported to be around 97-98% of asking prices this year.

    Sorry no links, just recollection.

    My $0.02.

    ReplyDelete
  53. "You say "normal"-- could you please show me a link with historical DC area inventory data? I think absolute levels are interesting here, and not just "x months supply.""

    Why absolute numbers? Oh, I see, you expect past absolute numbers to be lower than adjusted numbers, which will make you claims of skyrocketing inventory appear more accurate.

    The problem is that past absolute numbers aren't much more meaningful than your YOY comparisons. If you were to compare 1996 absolute inventory with 2006 inventory, for example, you'd miss the big picture. Such a comparison would not take into account population growth (maybe 30% growth in metro?), it higher ownership rates (we're at a record high now), or the rate of inventory turnover. This is why adjusted numbers, such as x months supply, would be better data.

    ReplyDelete
  54. "To begin, asking price has no relation to the sales price. It may be close, but not close enough."

    I don't know, but my bet is that asking prices last year were probably fairly close to sales prices, whereas this year asking prices are above sales prices. If I am right about that (and I may not be), then the real decline is even larger than 8%.

    A Redskins fan

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  55. "I've seen sales prices being reported to be around 97-98% of asking prices this year."

    This may or not be true, every property is different.

    But taking this as true, then the "margin or error" for 2005 asking price is 2-3% And the "margin or error" for 2006 asking price is also 2-3%. Combined these margins of error equal or exceed Redskins Fan's claimed nominal "loss." This is why calculation is suspect.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Redskins Fan, I need your advice.

    I'm starting up a junior league football team here in Cupertino CA (where we've had a housing bubble for about 30 years now).

    I want to honor the heretige of many of the Asian kids who will play on the team, and their anscestors who settled in CA long ago. I'm torn between naming the team "The Cupertino Slant-Eyes" or "The Cupertino Yellow-Men"

    Do you have a preference, or perhaps another name to honor the heretige of the players?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Anon 9:43,

    The obvious answer is the

    Yellowskins

    Duh!

    ReplyDelete
  58. Anon 10:01,

    Brilliant?

    Any suggestions for a team logo?

    A Yellowskins Fan

    ReplyDelete
  59. Oops, I meant to say "Brilliant!" (not "brilliant?")

    A Yellowskins Fan

    ReplyDelete
  60. I think "The Cupertino Slanteyes" is better. It seems more traditional.

    ReplyDelete
  61. As far as a logo, they should be wearing one of those conical hats and have a menacing pair of chopsticks.

    HTTY!
    (Hail To The Yellowskins)

    ReplyDelete
  62. Here is a good Yellowskins mascot Link

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  63. Yes, the Japanese were fierce warriors in WWII. Much like the warriors of the indian nations that the United States soundly defeated in the 19th century. It only makes sense to turn 'em all into mascots for ball teams.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Well, good luck to all homeowners as you weather the coming economic storm. :^)

    (renters won't need it since they are sitting pretty no matter what happens)

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  65. "Well, good luck to all homeowners as you weather the coming economic storm. :^)

    (renters won't need it since they are sitting pretty no matter what happens)"

    That does it. Any more comments like this and I'm switching my allegiance to the housingheads.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Let's face it; there are quite a few trolls on both sides who are taking a discussion on finances way, way too personally.

    ReplyDelete
  67. "To begin, asking price has no relation to the sales price. It may be close, but not close enough."

    Yes, actual sales prices have gone from above asking to below asking, so the decline has been even steeper than 8%.

    ReplyDelete