Sunday, October 09, 2005

David Lereah's Recent Statements

David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors® recently said ( as reported by the Chattanoogan):

"In examining the hottest markets for home price appreciation, we see a rolling boom moving from one metro area to another over time, as well as a spillover effect into nearby areas with lower home prices”

“That is spreading the wealth of housing returns, with a natural easing of appreciation in areas following a period of extraordinary price growth. Even after slowing in a given area, prices typically have continued to rise faster than historic norms."
David Lereah is correct about the idea of a 'rolling boom. After this unprecedented housing bubble there will be significant price declines in the bubble markets. The soft landing scenario is not in the cards. A 20 - 30% inflation adjusted price declines will occur in most of the bubble markets.


  1. Not to be crude, but where is this 'rolling boom' up Mr. Lereah's arse. This man is the consumate snake oil salesmen, whos tacky reign is about to end.

  2. The 'rolling boom' is a correct comment in that the bubble started in the major bubble markets ( LA, San Fran, LV) then fanned out to smaller markets like Reno and Bakersfield etc.

    However, the boom in 'bubblette' cities ( Bakersfield) is over as well.

    The bust has begun. Stagnation and small price declines are now the norm.