Friday, October 14, 2005
NAR: 2006 Predictions
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is forecasting that in 2006 "the median existing-home price to grow by 5.2 percent and the median new-home price to rise 7.1 percent." It is simply not going to happen. There has been such strong national home price appreciation the past few years that an additional 5% in 2006 is unrealistic. The bubble markets will be seeing price declines next year. A national 5% price appreciation for existing homes is not in the cards.
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"The bubble markets are limited to the east and west coast and Nevada, which compromise six, maybe ten states."
ReplyDeleteThe states which include bubble markets are MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, PA,MD, VA, FL, NV, HI, OR, WA, CA, AZ, NM ( there maybe others I am missing ).
Other areas have had very strong price appreciation in the last 5 years. Even Chicago has seen 47% price apprecation in 5 years.
"The problem with bubbles is that you don't know you're in one until it bursts."
ReplyDeleteNope. Look at the fundamentals. Compare to history. In the bubble markets ( LA, San Fran, Miami) we are in a bubble and there will be significant price declines.
I agree with you, but really, we can't expect them to say anything else. If the NAR said "this market is going to stagnate" its membership would freak out. They'd blame NAR for contributing to all that nasty bubble talk. Realtors would withdraw, taking their dues with them. Nope. NAR has to say everything's gonna be alright. That's their job.
ReplyDelete"NAR is not in the business of giving its memebers, or the general public for that matter, fraudulent or dishonest advice."
ReplyDeleteNo thats not the business of the NAR to give "fraudulent or dishonest advice," however they have been bubble cheerleaders. Some NAR members have made a tremendous amount of money from the housing bubble. NAR has also seen its membership grow extroadinarily in the past few years. When the bubble ends many Realtors will be in for tough times.
DO NOT TURST THESE SLIMEBALLS.
ReplyDeleteHOUSING IS GOING TO COLLAPSE. IN BOSTON ALONE PRICES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 15% ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MLS DATA.
DAMN CROOKS NEED TO BE EXPSOED FOR WHAT THEY ARE.
"The bubble markets are limited to the east and west coast and Nevada, which compromise six, maybe ten states."
ReplyDeleteThe states which include bubble markets are MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, PA,MD, VA, FL, NV, HI, OR, WA, CA, AZ, NM
A quick caluculation shows that the 16 states listed consitute 47.25% of the 2004 population. A third of the states but almost half the population (approx 138 mil)