Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Northern Virginia MRIS Numbers Out

The new numbers for December 2005 are out from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

Basically, in the Northern Virginia ( DC suburbs):
  • The number of sales are way down in Dec 05 compared to December 04
  • The inventory is way up in Dec 05 compared to December 04
  • The median and average sales price was higher in Dec 05 compared to December 04

The bubble continues to pop in the DC area.


  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  2. Thank you, David, for the info. It is good that the number of sales are down and inventory is up, but I cannot understand why the prices are still going up. I am waiting for the prices to come down. I hope they will this year. They have to considering all the factors involved. The high prices are not justified, but as long as there are buyers who are willing to pay, I guess it does not matter whether justified or not. That's disappointing, but we have to see what will happen later on, and I should not lose hope.

  3. My comparison was between December 04 and December 05. Prices rose in that time period.

    Prices for mid priced housing units are are slowing declining last month.

  4. I've noticed the Market Summary for December is still not posted.

    Usually they post that the same time they post the other detailed reports

  5. It's funny. The lates article dated in August talks about a housing suppy problem ;)


  6. Could the reason the prices are up be that sellers are still asking a lot, but fewer buyers are willing to pay? Thus we end up with high inventory (few houses selling), few sales, but high prices for the few sales that there are?

  7. I am also bummed the prices keep going up but they were so high in the spring of this year that I knew they would have to be higher than December of last year - barring a huge correction in a short amount of time.

    I agree that sellers are asking too much and it will probably stay that way until the spring (the time many of these sellers think will "save" them). I think the inventory will explode at that time (scary considering how high inventory is already) and then prices will (finally!) start to come down in the late spring/summer when sellers realize the same frenzied buying isn't happening.

    At least that's my hope. The worst case scenario is that there are still a lot of stupid flippers out there that buy in the spring hoping to flip and a lot of gullible new buyers still taking out I/Os and mortgaging their life away to buy. Even then I think the inventory is high enough that there won't be a frenzy but it would keep prices from dropping as quickly as they might otherwise.

  8. While I agree there is a housing bubble, it may take quite a while for prices to fall. Denial is a powerful emotion, and a lot of these would-be sellers simply will not break for a while. In addition, I expect all kinds of crazy loan schemes to help them hold the line.

    I'm comfortable renting, though.

  9. I agree. It will time a little longer for prices to start down. Most are still quoting YOY. It is only the last few months that prices are down. And.......sellers are not desperate ....yet. When they are, and sell out COMPS will come down, appraisals will folow, then prices will follow. Same senario as early 90's

  10. Personally, I think expecting prices to fall a lot and quickly, i.e., this year or next year, might be setting oneself up for disappointment. ARMs and IOs will start coming due over the next 2-3 years. This year, I would expect to see a lot of whining in the press from people who can't sell at the price they expected, but I'm not sure we'll see large reductions for a few more years. Just my amateur opinion- I could be totally wrong.

  11. I think in 2006 there will be 'price discounting' of perhaps 5-10% in the hyper bubble areas- the big slide will began in 2007-2009
    when prices could drop in those former bubble areas 30-40% and even here in central CT prices could drop 15% IN next few years.