Tuesday, November 29, 2005

It's the Inventory Stupid!


Not convinced that the bubble is about to burst?

Calculated Risk posted this:

"The 496,000 units of inventory is the all time record for new houses for sale. On a months of supply basis, inventory is at a reasonable level.

This is a very strong report. The pronouncements of the demise of the housing market now appear premature."

It's the inventory stupid! Look at the inventory flooding the market in the bubble markets.

Note: Calculated Risk is certainly not stupid. Calculated Risk has many valuable insights and I am a dedicated reader of his blog. The phrase is priceless in this case.

6 comments:

  1. The report gives more sauce for the goose- which means the FED is not anywhere done raising rates. Also it means the bubble gets bigger, with more debt and risk involved- as well as speculation- meaning the bigger this gets the harder the fall.

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  2. I guess it also depends on whether you believe the numbers or not.

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  3. There is no doubt that the number oif homes for sale, inventory, ( new & existing ) has increased rapidly in the past few months.

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  4. David (I'm the anonymous guy above)

    I meant that I am not sure I believe that there were a record number of sales at record prices.

    I believe the part about increased inventory.

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  5. Someone emailed me who said that CNBC said on the TV today that the surge in the number may come from a fraud in their survey system. I am not sure if by "fraud" she meant "mistake" or deliberate misinformation.

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  6. The 'Beige Book' said today economic growth was 'uneven. The east was 'slow', the midwest 'gradual' with the region west of the Miss River the 'fastest'. Considering the housing slowdown began in the northeast, this could be a harbinger for the rest of the country.

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