Tuesday, November 15, 2005

NAR: 3Q Median Sales Prices

NAR Third Quarter Median Sales Prices werereleased this morning. Link. Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas.

Here is a list of those metropolitan areas where the price median sales price fell in the 3rd quarter 2005 compared to the 2Q 2005:

  • Albuquerque, NM
  • Charleston, WV
  • Colorado Springs, CO
  • Decatuar, IL
  • Dallas-FtWorth, TX
  • Edison, NJ
  • Green Bay, WI
  • Kankakee, IL
  • Memphis, TN
  • Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
  • Rockford, IL
  • Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL
  • Southbend, IN
  • Souix Falls, SD
  • San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
  • Pittsfield, MA

The 4th Quarter, NAR reports will show many more housing markets experiencing price declines. Despite NAR's anti housing bubble propaganda the bubble will pop.

8 comments:

  1. Amazing that Dallas fell. Prices there were already very low, and then you had all those people moving in because of Katrina.

    Back in 2001 or 2002, when telecom was still sort of alive, a very nice, relatively new house in the DFW area would run just under 250K, while a nice, not-quite-as-new house in Manassas, Virginia was just under 300K.

    Now, you can get a beautiful, all brick, recent construction, 4 bedroom house in DFW for under $200K, and those somewhat older houses in Manassas will run you over 400K. But I guess the DFW houses are still on the way down.

    Just goes to show, once it starts to go down, it can keep going down a long way.

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  2. One other general comment regarding the use of median home prices to gauge the health of the market. Median home price does NOT adjust for quality or sales volume...it merely lists the middle value of all homes sold during that period. So...if the median in 2q05 was 250K (for a 1 BR, 1 BA condo) but jumped to 300K in 3q05 (for a 2br 2ba townhouse) a drop has potentially already occurred, it just can't be seen by looking ONLY at median price.

    I find it quite ironic that government released economic statistics use "quality adjustments" like hedonic pricing to understate inflation statistics. While this trade industry avoids at all costs the mention that median price is not a good indicator of price action in any market.

    As Mark Twain said, lies, damn lies and statistics.

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  3. Anonymous...your comment struck a chord. Most recent homebuyers, if they even concede a price drop will occur, usually dull the point by saying "well, it will only be a 10-20% drop at most"...or some such "low" percentage. Well, guess what? Assuming that HB paid $300K 2 years ago and those 2 years have seen 20% appreciation, this means the house is currently worth approx. $440K...a 20% drop would mean the house goes down to $360K. A 40% drop would take the house down to <$280K, or less than the original price paid. This demonstrates the point that a decrease equal in % terms to the initial increase will completely erase any gain and indeed turn it into a loss.

    I believe this lesson will be learned in the coming years many times over.

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  4. Does anyone happen to have the Q2 reports saved? I was meaning to grab a copy this morning prior to release but forgot about it. I want to check whether the Q2 preliminary numbers were revised upwards or downwards.

    Thanks,
    grim

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  5. http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL05Q2T.pdf/$FILE/REL05Q2T.pdf

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  6. October statistics are out from mdrealtor.org.

    I've updated my graph.

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  7. According to th NAR stats year to year im my neck of the woods (Hartford CT metro) is up only 8.2% Median price of a home now 260K- Still seeing overpriced condos selling for too much, and small started homes also overpriced.

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