In the bubble markets we are likely to see inflation adjusted price decline of 20 - 40% over the next 3 years. I am not a doomsayer; I am realist. I have not drunk or mixed the Kool Aid.
Most real estate agents and economists are not forecasting a real estate collapse, although some doomsayers say the bursting of the "bubble" is inevitable.
Other signs of a slowdown:
• Ricardo Cortazar, a Realtor in Tempe, Ariz., says it now takes 35 days, on average, to sell a home. Six months ago, it took a week. Inventory in Arizona has swelled to 15,000 homes, vs. 6,000 in May.
• Vaughn Bryan, a real estate agent in San Bernardino County, has spotted another ominous trend: a rise in the number of 90-day listing contracts that expire without a sale.
• Dan Elsea, a Detroit Realtor, says it's common for sellers in the job-starved Motor City to reduce asking prices two, three or four times before signing a deal.
• Kelly Haslam of Madison, Wis., hasn't been able to sell her bungalow-style home despite putting it up for sale "by owner" seven weeks ago, hosting four open houses and dropping her price once.
• Judi Keenholtz, CEO of Empire Realty, which serves San Francisco's East Bay, says desirable homes in good school districts that used to fetch eight
to 10 bids now get three or four.