Monday, July 31, 2006

Angry Phoenix Realtor Verbally Attacks Fellow Housing Bubble Blogger

An angry Phoenix Realtor verbally attacks Housing Panic. Gregg Swanson over at BloodHoundBlog writes:

HousingPanic, a particularly vitriolic BubbleBlog which is saying something
asks:

Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?

Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings. Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites and not just HousingPanic are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering at second hand, to be sure on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.

That's all one. I don't care. The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them. The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish. You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along. But as long as you don't hold your breath waiting for that contrite admission of error, you should be fine.

That was Gregg's first post. Housing Panic responded with:

This "attack the messenger" stuff will just get worse and worse I'm afraid. Where the bubble bloggers may even take some blame for the economic meltdown and people's misfortunes.

I think HP does good - at least for anyone who listened starting a year ago, and for first time home buyers a few years from now who'll be able to afford a home. I blog to warn others, and to expose the corrupt and powerful REIC, pure and simple.

Here's the attack by "bloodhound realty" (nice name). Feel free to respond on their site, make the author look like the ignorant fool he is, but play nice.

BloodhoudBlog responded with a second attack on the bubbleheads who left many posts his blog arguing that a significant decline will occur in Phoenix:

The BubbleBrains swooped in en masse today, having only just now discovered my 21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market. Courage, confidence and competence are often found together in a solitary soul, but cowardice, cowering and impotence these are the attributes of character of men who run in packs. I am more than libertarian enough to let them go to hell in their own way, but it seems only common courtesy to point the way. So I sent them hither and thither blithering Bubbleheads lathered up into a dither. Now that's just good, clean fun.
Bubble Meter Blog proudly stands with Keith and others who are fighting to reveal the reality of the very significant decline occurring in the US bubble markets. The housing boom is a speculative episode, and like other speculative episodes, it will end badly. I will continue fighting for the truth, while taking on those corrupt, manipulative and deceptive elements in the housing industrial complex.

20 comments:

  1. I wouldn't stand too close to Keith over at Housing Panic. He has a record of racism and advocates murdering every single muslim in the world.

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  2. "advocates murdering every single muslim in the world. "

    He does? Please quote.

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  3. Let's see how Greg responds to today's Arizona headlines:

    "State and local officials are investigating a months-long work stoppage that has left about 200 unfinished houses in Casa Grande and Maricopa withering in Arizona's summer as home buyers wonder whether they'll ever be able to move in."

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  4. According to NAR, prices in Phoenix have been flat for 2 consecutive quarters. Prices will need to drop by about 10% from 1Q06 to 2Q06 to show a YOY drop. Anything less will still show as year over year gains.

    Just about 2 weeks until NAR publishes their 2Q06 numbers. I expect the DC area to show YOY declines.

    Source: http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/MetroPrice

    My $0.02

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  5. mytwocents,

    I really don't follow the econ. banter on this and other blogs. Common sense would indicate a breather and retreat on pricing.

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  6. VA Investor,

    I agree, but then, this is an unpopular position to hold.

    With a soft spring season, I expect the retreat could reach upwards of 5% 1Q06 to 2Q06. It's been running at 2-2.5%. Since summer is typically dead and the mood really is changing for buyers, I expect that drop to go through 3Q06.

    Again, these numbers track the whole area so different pockets and different housing styles will do better and worse. However, I think the market as a whole will determine the mood of the market. And I believe the mood of the market will favor buyers for the time being.

    My $0.02.

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  7. These lenghy quotes from another blog are postworthy only because they are by a realtor, because emotional, bitter rants are commonplace on these blogs, but usually they are posted by bubbleheads.

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  8. waiting for godotJuly 31, 2006 11:50 AM

    "I agree, but then, this is an unpopular position to hold."

    Maybe by realtors, GFs and FBs

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  9. Here's the Census data for Phoenix.

    http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts?_event=&geo_id=16000US0455000&_geoContext=01000US%7C04000US04%7C16000US0455000&_street=&_county=phoenix&_cityTown=phoenix&_state=04000US04&_zip=&_lang=en&_sse=on&ActiveGeoDiv=geoSelect&_useEV=&pctxt=fph&pgsl=160&_submenuId=factsheet_1&ds_name=DEC_2000_SAFF&_ci_nbr=null&qr_name=null%AE%3Dnull%3Anull®=null%AE%3Dnull%3Anull%3Anull&_keyword=&_industry=

    The 2004 9.0% vacancy rate which a 3.0% increase over the 2000 rate of 6.0% suggests the potential for a building boom that could undermine prices.

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  10. data miner,

    Good work! Canyou find foreclosure percentages? The percentage of mortgages considered delinquent, year by year for the past 20 or 30 years?

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  11. but usually they are posted by bubbleheads

    I love how ad hominem is dominating housing bulls' arguments these days.

    He has a record of racism and advocates murdering every single muslim in the world

    That is a total mischaracterization and is again a sign of desperation.

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  12. thanks david - fight the good fight. and hopefully we won't need security

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  13. va_investor,

    Most of my "mining" is just reading through posts for verifiable info. Redskins Fan deserves the credit for finding the link to the Census data Factsheet.

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  14. Scooter in McleanJuly 31, 2006 4:58 PM

    Don't look now, but frustrated apartment dwellers are shooting each other... AND getting evicted.

    Woman Ordered Evicted From Apartment After Being Shot

    http://www.stopfamilyviolence.org/ocean/host.php?page=143

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  15. More apartment-based violence. link

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  16. anon said:
    "Anonymous said...
    This is interesting. According to this site, some of the lowest end housing in DC has depreciated sharply in the last 2 to 3 months, while high end stuff has held steady:"

    This supports my opinion that the gap between the wealthy and the not-so-weathly is growing ever wider. Just like the common supermarket has now mutated into a Whole Foods for the wealthy and a Shoppers Food Warehouse for the not-so-wealthy (with 2 completely different pricing-level structures ... for often the very same item), we can expect the housing market to equally diverge. Low end housing has to get cheaper to be affordable for a segment of the population that has seen no real increase in income in at least a decade, while high end housing will continue to sell for what the market will bare, which in this case is a lot.

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  17. btw, fair warning to those who haven't yet opened anony's tinyurl ... Don't! (Unless your name happens to be Bill and you have a competing blog out there).

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  18. More apartment-based living:


    Tourist's death recalls old days of `Murder City'
    BY FRED GRIMM


    At first, the outsider gunned down on Jefferson Street in Coconut Grove didn't engender much sympathy from residents of the squat cluster of apartments down the block. Most white men cruising by the King's Way Apartments aren't making social calls.

    ''I have to admit, when this first happened, I figured he must have been down here buying crack,'' said Albert Buchanan. Drugs and the violence associated with the drug trade have become the scourge of his Miami neighborhood.

    http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15167659.htm

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  19. Greg

    You have time to argue with a bunch of people who are blogging instead of trying to sell my house. When the contract is up, I'm finding a new realtor!

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  20. Valley new-home permits dip during Feb.

    Home-building was down 64 percent from a year earlier, and sales were off by 38 percent.

    The median new-home price in the Valley fell to $225,000 last month, compared with $231,000 in January. In 2006, the Valley's median price hit $300,000.

    1.5 years on- That finally settles the score as to "who was correct about the future direction of prices and Demand in Phoenix."

    Greg Swann was plainly wrong. Its really absurd to watch him keep trying to weasel around admitting he was mistaken.

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