In the bubble markets, inventory has increased at an even faster pace then the national picture over the past year.
In San Diego County, housing inventory started off at 13,916 on January 1st 2006 and has risen by a full 67% and was
In Los Angelos County, housing inventory started off at 24,463 on January 2nd 2006 and has risen by a full 82% and was
In Sacramento Metro area, housing inventory started off at 9,513 on January 2nd 2006 and has risen by a full 80% and was
In the Phoenix metro area, inventory spiked from 10,748 on 7/20/05 to
In Loudoun County (DC suburbs), see image to the left, the inventory has exploded going from ~1600 to ~4600 active listings In Northern Virginia, a part of the Washington DC metro area, the number of active listings was 4061 in June 2005, which increased by 197% to 12,096 in June 2006 (MRIS).
In the Orlando area, inventory had exploded from
It'’s all about the inventory, stupid. Back when there was no inventory to speak of, say the '‘03-'’04 timeframe people in the market to buy a house would have the repeated experience of having houses that they looked at go under contract before they could decide to buy or not. Low inventories create a "“buy now or it's gone"” frenzied atmosphere.
But prices have risen far above the cost of construction, so that builders have put huge inventories of new homes (especially condos)on the market. With these large inventories, buyers don't have to jump immediately just because a nice house is for sale. They can take their time, if one house sells, there are plenty of others on the market to choose from. They'’re no longer pressured to meet the sellers price immediately or lose the chance at the house. They can offer less and see how desparate the seller is. This is why the idea that we have reached a new plateau of prices where forever in the future people will pay a higher percentage of their income on housing is so absurd.
Posts
We have to keep things in perspective here. Sure, the inventory was extremely low in '03-'04, but we all knew that wouldn't last. No we have more inventory, but from an historical perspective, it is not that much. The latest statistics indicate that we have a little more than 6 months worth of inventory, which is definitely more than last year. But since 9 months is generally considered a balanced market, we still have a shortage, and we are still in a market that favors the sellers, albeit less than last year.
ReplyDeleteBut your not keeping perspective. This is only going to get worse. June seemed to be a major month where markets grinded to a halt after months of "orderly slowing" that is a huge signal.
ReplyDeleteThe slowdown is just going to get worse and I believe even before this year is out, some markets will be unwinding at a faster pace than expected.
If you`ve been watching the Phx metro housing market you`d see that the inventory has already begun to slow down.
ReplyDelete"But since 9 months is generally considered a balanced market, we still have a shortage, and we are still in a market that favors the sellers, albeit less than last year."
ReplyDeleteIt is generally considered 6 months not 9 months.
I keep reading on this blog that inventory is now "normal."
ReplyDeleteWhere is the data that this is based on? I would like to see it. Do you have a link?
I don't like the idea of hearing "a 6 month supply" either. I'd like to know the actual levels.
And does this data come from the realtors? Does it include homes for sale by owner?
And when people say supply is "normal", do they mean nationally it is normal? Is it normal for the city of Phoenix and the county of Loudoun to have that many homes for sale? Again, I mean in terms of levels, not "x months supply."
A Redskins fan
I keep reading on this blog about how well-off people will never pay good money to live in homes that were "built for middle class people."
ReplyDeleteInjin Lover, you need to take the National Park Service's tour of Georgetown. The whole neighborhood with few exceptions was built for poor or middle-class people.
What changed there?
"But your not keeping perspective. This is only going to get worse. June seemed to be a major month where markets grinded to a halt after months of "orderly slowing" that is a huge signal.
ReplyDeleteThe slowdown is just going to get worse and I believe even before this year is out, some markets will be unwinding at a faster pace than expected. "
Actually, inventory edged down in DC in June. Sorry.
Old Town Alexandria was at one time an exclusive enclave of.... poor people.
ReplyDeleteNothing ever changes.
And Riverdale was built for rich people. The parts of Georgetown built for poor people were often razed and built over. People aren't paying a million dollars for Georgetown mansions that were built as lower middle class houses.
ReplyDeleteThings definitely change. They don't always change for the better.
In my experience, the housingheads are the one with little experience or knowledge of the area's history. They are the ones who act as if starting a development means it will inevitably be successful.
Almost nothing has stayed the same in DC for any 30 year period in the last 100 years (though the poverty of some parts has lasted almost that long). Yet, housing believers say that we should all rush out and grab 30 year mortgages at any price. I don't agree.
A Redskins fan
Amidst their usual blather and nonsense, some housing cheerleaders here actually manage to tuck in one good point amidst their many bad ones.
ReplyDeleteA more granular look at inventory numbers in the DC area does show a lot of variation between different parts of the DC area. Montgomery County single family homes still look strong, for instance.
DC condos, however, are not looking so hot. The guy who keeps saying "you = pw3nd" is looking pretty pwn3d^2 right now.
I do think that all DC areas will get hit by some sort of decline, but the decline will be very uneven.
Jim A,
ReplyDeleteDo you have any data on new construction of SF and attached (town) houses? We've seen some pretty good data on condo construction from a number of sources, but no real numbers on other products.
(David, the request is to you too.)
"People aren't paying a million dollars for Georgetown mansions that were built as lower middle class houses."
ReplyDeleteActually they are. Those tiny 2br 2ba narrow rowhouses were once occupied by lower middle class people.
The Northern Virginia inventory numbers are even more astounding when you consider that the MLS only includes re-sale properties. All the high-rise condo and townhome projects that are currently looking for buyers aren't even included. Want to see the real recipe for nosediving prices? Have a look at all the projects slated for completion later this year and in 2007 & 2008.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dclofts.com/newcondosdirectory.html
Housing boosters will counter, "but those buildings are already sold-out pre-construction." Sure they're "sold out," like the Royalton in Old Town above the new Whole Foods Market was "sold out"-with speculators. Now that the units are constructed, about 20 of the 114 "owners" are already trying to sell. (there are 14 on the MLS, and several others on Craigslist)
And while lots of projects slated for completion in the first half of 2006 were sold-out pre-construction, that is not true for many projects still under construction.
A week doesn't go by where I don't get a glossy mailing from one of these places. The people in the photos always look so happy! Sure is tempting... but not at these prices.
David is correct about the history of small rowhouse in Georgetown, and their current market value.
ReplyDeleteHere is a recent sale, about a block away from the homes shown on North Cap. St. in the posting below:
(This is straight out of DC.gov's records)
Address: 2200 1ST ST NW [the corner house once referred to as "Big Blue"]
SSL: 3122 0025
Neighborhood: LEDROIT PARK
Homestead Status: ** Currently receiving the Homestead Deduction*.
Owner Name: BRIAN J ----
Mailing Address: 2200 1ST ST NW; WASHINGTON DC20001-1016
Sale Price: $850,000
Sale Date: 06/09/2006
A Redskins fan
ReplyDelete“And does this data come from the realtors? Does it include homes for sale by owner?”
If the property does not have a MLS, it’s not counted as inventory.
If a seller has opted for a flat fee listing (simply a MLS listing) then it might be counted. However, with the RE agents up in arms about flat fee listings (going as far as “hiding” those listings) it’s hard to say. It would behoove them not to count the Flat Fee/FSBO’s as inventory……….Given that, I would say that even the Flat fee/FSBO’s are not counted.
"Actually they are. Those tiny 2br 2ba narrow rowhouses were once occupied by lower middle class people."
ReplyDeleteYes, they were occupied by them. That does not mean they were built for them. Georgetown is one of the oldest parts of DC, and has gone through a period of thriving, to busting, to thriving again. The New Deal designers moved in there in one wave of re-gentrification precisely because there were these old, nice houses built when the area was wealthier.
BTW- many of those Georgetown rowhouses are not that small.
A Redskins fan
David,
ReplyDeleteYour statement that "tiny 2br 2ba narrow rowhouses were once occupied by lower middle class people" may be correct in some sense at some time, but those houses were not built for those occupants. Historically, lower middle class people were renters, and they were lucky to rent out a room for the whole family in one of those tiny houses. And of course, the houses did not have "2ba" either, there was one outhouse.
The lower middle class was not renting out entire houses until after WWII, much less owning them. If your grandparents are still alive, ask them about how they lived and who they lived with when they grew up and how other people lived, too.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDelete"The Northern Virginia inventory numbers are even more astounding when you consider that the MLS only includes re-sale properties. All the high-rise condo and townhome projects that are currently looking for buyers aren't even included."
I think that’s partially true. A year ago, local developers would simply advertise in the local paper. No realtor or MLS needed. Now, I’m seeing new/to be built construction listed in the MLS. Keep in mind, the builder may have one MLS listing, but that one MLS can include more than one new/to be built.
I did some mining of my own.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mris.com/news/Press%20Releases/index.cfm?more=true&selectname=Home_Sale_Prices_Continue_to_Rise_in_Nations_Capital.cfm
June average prices are up significantly acrose the DC area YOY, except for Loudoun, despite increased inventory and days on market.
How do prices rise when the bubble is popping?
Question,
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone have a link for normal inventory of real estate? I've read here 9 months, and 6 months. But I have been told 2 months to 3 months was normal RE inventory. This was by various people who might or might not have the right answer.
Its difficult for me to imagine that once someone gets a new job offer its been "normal" to wait 9 months to sell the house. My company has never paid for more than 90 days of temporary housing for the new employee. Since we tend to be a rather fair employer, I would have thought that was to cover the normal time required to sell and buy a house.
But, one point of reading logs is to be educated, thus, why I ask for a link that states what is normal market inventory. If there is a divergent opinion, multiple links are great. Please, not to blogs... I'm looking for a reference.
Thanks in advance,
Neil
"central Harlem in New York City has suffered from blight for a very long time."
ReplyDeleteHaven't been to Harlem lately, have you? It has changed dramatically in the last 10 years.
Injin' Lover needs to take the NPS tour of Georgetown to see that on the whole, it hasn't been "razed" since the building first went up. (really - go look into the history of the buildings rather than playing armchair historian/quarterback)
"BTW- many of those Georgetown rowhouses are not that small."
ReplyDeleteNeither are the homes on North Cap shown below.
Inventory in Loudoun county is up. Is anyone surprised??
ReplyDeleteIsn't this one of the fastest growing counties in the country? Does it make sense that inventory has increased, as the overall number of housing units and residents have also increased.
I would rely on this chart to be indicative of a bubble bursting.
I have hard evidence to support the theory the inventory numbers for DC condos are highly UNDER-estimated, and that developers have a TON of condos for sale, but only list 2-3 of them in a building.
ReplyDeleteOnce particular building, which delivered all of its units in March in Logan circle, has 26 units that are still held by the builder, but the builder only had 3 listed on MLS. And this building has a total of only 60 units, which means that more than 40% of the units weren't eventually sold, though last summer the builder proudly announced "SOLD-OUT". I guess 40% of the deposits were forfeited as the investors walked away from the closing table.
"http://www.mris.com/news/Press%20Releases/index.cfm?more=true&selectname=Home_Sale_Prices_Continue_to_Rise_in_Nations_Capital.cfm
ReplyDelete"
David, you should post this story about rising prices in the DC area. it will show that you are fair and balanced.
"
We covered this in the last thread. Average prices can, indeed, continue to rise, even while the prices of individual houses are falling. This is especially common when inventory is rising and number of sales is dropping, as is the case now. "
We also discussed how the facts contradict this theory, but sarah was not too interested in facts.
I spent some quality time on the residential streets of Silver Spring yesterday. (Not in an automobile).
ReplyDeleteBroad swaths of SS are becoming "ghettoized".
"AnonyTroll, you really ought to stick your own nose in a history book before you admonish others to do so. There is nothing unusual about relatively poor people living in housing that was built for the relative affluent, or the other way around, like in Georgetown."
ReplyDeleteI agree, which is why I made an example of Georgetown.
But the larger discussion, which you haven't grasped, is Injin' Lover's assertation that wealthy people would never live in housing constructed and priced for middle-class people. That is precisely what Injin' Lover said: I refuted it; and you backed me up. Thanks.
Redskins Fan & DC_Too:
ReplyDeleteBoth of you need to do more research on Georgetown's history. Foggy Bottom's history followed a similar path from miserable to million-dollar.
One good resource is volume one of Robert Caro's bio on LBJ, particulaly the section on the New Dealers coming to town. It gives a nice background on G'Town's background. Another interesting resource was a recent Post op-ed by a G'Town resident who looked into the background of his home.
Basically, Georgetown started out as a merchant and working class community (with slaves living in some homes' sub-basements), then became a haven for working class blacks, and then working class whites moved in during the 1930s era (most of the working class blacks couldn't afford to live there anymore b/c gov't New Deal jobs were hard to get for blacks and the commute was difficult due to segregation of bus/trolley lines), and then it became a haven for rich folks. Many times, it was the same exact home that housed each of these different waves of socio-economic families.
It's far better to actually do some basic research rather than just making stuff up and tossing it out here.
Sarah in DC:
ReplyDeleteRe: your example - is your "theory" actually based on actual numbers or is it nothing mroe than hypothesis? Because if it's just an example of how averages can rise while prices can fall, then it's not very useful to the discussion. The point when it would become useful is if you could analyze the mass of data to show that your example is indeed actually occurring.
Someone posted a link a while back that broke out the current home sales in the Arlington area. Does anyone have the link?
ReplyDeleteIt showed the breakdown of sales volumes distributed over price ranges from 0 up through multi million dollar homes.
If the sales volume percentages show a dual peak distribution, it would lend credibility to Sara in DC's interpretation of how Average prices could be rising while the median drops.
My $0.02.
"If the sales volume percentages show a dual peak distribution, it would lend credibility to Sara in DC's interpretation of how Average prices could be rising while the median drops."
ReplyDeleteIf you were a wealthy man, you wouldn't be here.
If pigs had wings, they might fly.
If the facists had won WWII, the world would be a different place.
If, If, If, If, if.....if. if... if if ififififififififif ... iffifififififif ififififif.
"Old Town Alexandria was at one time an exclusive enclave of.... poor people.
ReplyDeleteNothing ever changes."
And Anacostia used to be a nice middle-class area. Hyattsville and Capitol Hts used to be nice suburbs. Nothing changed there either.
"No, one of the anonymous brethren expressed confusion over how a rising average could possibly be consistent with falling prices. I provided a numerical example to demonstrate how it can work. Then various logic-challenged posters bashed me for not 'proving' my 'theory'. Too bad so little of the new housing wealth in this country appears to have gone towards education. It's really very unwise to 'invest' without knowing how to do simple math. "
ReplyDeleteSarah, your theory required declining prices among less expensive homes. When confronted with the fact that DC's less expensive areas are experiencing the most growth right now, you ran away with your tail between your legs.
If anonymous 8:25 had anything better to contribute I'm sure it would have been said.
ReplyDeleteMy $0.02.
Anacostia was home to the area's largest mental institution, back when people with mental problems were locked up in institutions. It wasn't all peachy-keen, ever.
ReplyDeleteNow, that mental institution is being converted into the US Coast Guard's headquarters. And, it remains to be seen if all the Joe Sixpacks that will descend upon Anacostia to watch a baseball game will have any influence over Anacostia's outlook. (I suspect there will be a lot of bars, restaurants, and shops, and Joe Sixpacks from the suburbs will spend 10's of millions of $ in Anacostia on a yearly basis.)
By the way, for those who don't know: Anacostia is home to the future Washnington National's baseball stadium.
FYI: "St. Elizabeth's Hospital for the Insane" in Anacostia. here
ReplyDeleteAlso, look up the location on a map. The Anacostia neighborhood isn't large. It was never really a "nice middle-class neighborhood"
However, I bet that many of you who've never set foot in Anacostia will visit in the next ten years as the area transforms.
" You may want to spend some time reading financial history, too, and think about how it may apply to today's housing market. "
ReplyDeleteYes, with enough financial smarts, you too can rent a house in the ghetto, like dc_too.
Sarah in DC,
ReplyDeleteThis reminds me of a post I once made to show how moving YOY averages could be going up while quarter over quarter prices were going down.
I specifically said it was an example, and that the numbers were an arbitrary example, and some knucklehead anonymous poster, who very obviously didn't understand math, "flamed" me because no such pricing ever existed.
My $0.02.
anon 8:31,
ReplyDelete"By the way, for those who don't know: Anacostia is home to the future Washnington National's baseball stadium."
No it is NOT. The baseball stadium is located just north of the Anacostia river. Anacosta refers to a neighborhood south / east of the Anacostia river. Around Martin Luther King Jr Avenue And Good Hope Road SW.
News Release for Immediate Release
ReplyDeleteJune 20, 2006
Mayor and Anacostia Waterfront Corporation Unveil Solution for Baseball Stadium Parking
http://dc.gov/mayor/news/release.asp?id=923&mon=200606
Anacostia Waterfront refers to a broad area adjacent to the Anacostia river and not to the Anacostia neighborhood.
ReplyDeleteThe stadium is located in the Anacostia Waterfront Intiative area, but not in the Anacostia neighborhood.
"(Washington, DC) Mayor Anthony A. Williams, the Ted Lerner family and other owner partners, Team Manager Frank Robinson, members of the DC Sports and Entertainment Commission (DCSEC), and members of the DC Council today broke ground at the site of the future home of the Washington Nationals at Half and O Streets, SE, which will be the infield of the new park. Last year, after a 34-year absence, Major League Baseball returned to the nation’s capital at historic RFK Memorial Stadium."
ReplyDeletehttp://citizenatlas.dc.gov/atlasapps/viewit.aspx?ShowReport=3700305&SAR=T&QString=
ReplyDeleteLook at this map!
I don't know that debating whether or not the stadium is located in Anacostia or not really adds value to the discussion. I mean 17th street NE near RFK is now considered Capitol Hill I don't know that it was before..if I'm wrong I'm wrong. These neighborhoods will be stretched appropriately. If the area is not traditionally known as Ancostia it will soon become Anacostia (or the Anacostia extention) if that means it will help sell homes.
ReplyDelete"Ancostia it will soon become Anacostia (or the Anacostia extention) if that means it will help sell homes."
ReplyDeleteJust like Sarah in DC uses the "DC" portion of her name to garner style points, yet she doesn't live in DC?
What are the odds that David says "I live in DC" when he encounters someone who has never heard of SS? Come on David, just tell 'em you live in the home of the Discovery Channel.
But "creating" or "adding" areas into trendy neighborhoods is not new in this area. I'm from Anacostia originally and I've never known Half and O Streets to be considered Anacostia, but I'm in my 20's so I may be wrong. I'm not an authority on Anacostia or DC history in general. I wonder if someone knows what the housing impact was when RFK was built? Did people rush out to be near the stadium? I haven't seen much change in the neighborhoods around FedEx Field since it opened (this is debatable because condos near metro stations in the area have gone up and are what I would consider quite pricey, but this may be more about Largo Town Center than about the actual Stadium).
ReplyDelete"What are the odds that David says "I live in DC" when he encounters someone who has never heard of SS? Come on David, just tell 'em you live in the home of the Discovery Channel."
ReplyDeleteI say I'm from the Washington area.
I wonder if someone knows what the housing impact was when RFK was built? Did people rush out to be near the stadium?
ReplyDeleteNot as far as I know, but I'm certainly no DC historian. You have to remember, though, that D.C. Stadium/RFK was not part of a hyped-up 'entertainment/nightlife complex' the way the new Nats stadium is supposed to be. I doubt that legions of Senators and Redskins fans bought up homes near RFK just so they could be nearer their teams. :)
I personally have my doubts about how well the Anacostia Waterfront thing is going to work out, but I'd certainly like to see it turn into something cool. But to succeed, I think whatever goes in around the stadium will have to be able to generate a lot more buzz than baseball alone is going to create. MCI Center had the advantage of a downtown location, albeit in a part of downtown that was quite threadbare back then.
Neil said...
ReplyDeleteQuestion,
Does anyone have a link for normal inventory of real estate? I've read here 9 months, and 6 months. But I have been told 2 months to 3 months was normal RE inventory. This was by various people who might or might not have the right answer.
Its difficult for me to imagine that once someone gets a new job offer its been "normal" to wait 9 months to sell the house. My company has never paid for more than 90 days of temporary housing for the new employee. Since we tend to be a rather fair employer, I would have thought that was to cover the normal time required to sell and buy a house.
But, one point of reading logs is to be educated, thus, why I ask for a link that states what is normal market inventory. If there is a divergent opinion, multiple links are great. Please, not to blogs... I'm looking for a reference.
Thanks in advance,
Neil
A little clarification. "Inventory" refers to the number of homes currently on the market. The "months of inventory" figure is derived by dividing the inventory by the number of sales in a given month. This is different from "days on market".
This thread is closed. Somone kept on posting obnoxious comments.
ReplyDelete