Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Federal Reserve Likely to Raise Rates

The Federal Reserve Board is meeting again on August 8 to decide what to do with short term interest rates. Currently, rates are standing at 5.25%.

Reasons to Raise
  • Fight inflation
  • Keep the dollar from tanking
  • Reload the 'gun' so can lower rates for upcoming economic downturn without significant risks.
Reasons to Lower or Pause
  • Economy is already slowing. Don't want to overshoot and cause a recession.
[In my humble opinion, a recession in the next year is almost inevitable]. So what will the Federal Reserve Board decide on August 8th?

They will very likely raise rates by 25bps (1/4). At the next meeting after August, the Fed's will likely pause.