Thursday, July 13, 2006

Joke

How many flippers does it take to screw in a light bulb?

One, but its a pointless endeavor, as the electiricty has already been turned off by the utility company.

54 comments:

  1. David,

    Keep your day job.

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  2. DAVID HAS BEEN CRITICIZED!! CLOSE THIS THREAD!!

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  3. http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/13/pf/six_fig_farthest/index.htm?cnn=yes

    Good news: DC is the 5th in the country for $100K+ job listing.

    Bad news: After cost of living, it takes $141K to equal $100K

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  4. Answer: None. They're too busy posting to bubblemeter hoping their desperate cries sell one more house.condo.

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  5. Answer: Three

    One to quiety replace the light bulb,
    One to issue a press release on how its a normal light bulb that experienced a soft landing
    And One to cry that its the bad press on real estate that caused the light bulb to fail.


    And you know, they aren't making any more light bulbs. ;)

    Seriously, going through the blogs I'm seeing large evidence that the S&P bond rating change is having a *huge* impact already! Wow! I didn't expect that to be the trigger... Its such a minor thing in the grand scheme of things. If such a small thing really has such a disporportionate impact it only shows how precarious the market it.

    Oh, last I looked the money markets show a 60% chance for a 25 basis point rate hike in August and 10% for a 50 point basis hike. That's an early positive vote for a rate hike... wow!

    But note, I expect that Joe and Jane six pack will still think real estate never goes down until mid-October...

    Oh, and for those who say it takes a contraction in two industries... its going to be several. Intel, AMD, AFMC, more at Ameriquest (luckly my friend there survived... and Ameriquest is keeping the layoff rate *just* below the rate required for an 2nd layoff anouncement).

    Too think the fun doesn't really start until 2Q07... :(
    Neil

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  6. neil,

    Laugh yourself sick pal. Joe and Jane Sixpack probably have several times your net worth.

    (given the stats on homeownership and assets)

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  7. well your lightbulb may decrease in value but my lightbulb is special because...

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  8. i don't care that you rent your lightbulb for half the price, at least i can paint my lightbulb whatever color i want. there is a value to being able to paint your lightbulb without having to ask for permission! isn't there?

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  9. you guys can laugh now, but just wait till all those immigrants flood this country over the next few years and the price of lightbulbs skyrockets. do you have ANY idea how long it takes to get zoning to build new lightbulbs these days?

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  10. Hey, its been shown that those that own their light bulbs are more mature. ;)


    Va investor,

    Laugh? A little humor is always fun.


    As to "sick pal," why the insult? I mearly made one joke in line with this thread. If that deserves an insult, you have lost all credibility in my book; I learned a long time ago that those that argue with insults instead of facts are universally liars.

    I then pointed out financial facts that concern me. If you have facts to disagree, post them. I'm not on this blog to just reinforce my own opinion: I would LOVE to learn contrarian facts. The upcoming changes to the economy worry me; I don't want them to happen, but they will. So I am positioning myself for what I see occuring. ;)

    Failure to post facts only shows you don't understand the implications of what is going on. Unfortunately, I am hearing about impending layoffs from my friends who, like myself, are in positions to hire people.
    My point is that conditions are changing.

    I'm thinking of moving to where both of us can get good jobs and buy a nice lakefront house cash. So insults on my net worth only make me laugh. I could be a home owner any day I wish. Career opportunities kept me from buying the last few years. I have owned before and lost net $7k on the deal... I'm well aware homes go down as well as up. But when my hairdresser advises to buy two homes... I know to sell.

    Neil

    ps
    David: keep up the great blog!

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  11. Neil,

    You certainly are the "voice of experience".

    I wasn't insulting you by telling you to laugh yourself sick. No further response is necessary.

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  12. It takes one flipper to screw in a lightbulb. One to hold the bulb in the socket while the bodies of every responsible economist over time (and currently deceased) rolls over in their grave, incremetally rotating the earth around the stationary bulb.

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  13. Va_investor...

    Oops, I appologize. I took your reply out of context. Mea culpa.

    Neil

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  14. sorry, but this is funny. i also don't hold real estate agents in too high esteme ... but that is because i think that nowadays they are in it too much for themselves... my dad was a real estate agent back in the 60s and 70s when i was growing up and his 20K to 30k commissions (per year) were not very much compared to what these guys are raping people for nowadays. But yet, I still understand that despite what bubbleheads nowadays think, real estate agents can't "up" prices. Not in the least ... And Bubbleheads looking to blame them are just looking to blame someone other themselves for their own bad dedicisions. Oh well ...

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  15. discretionary spendingJuly 13, 2006 9:42 PM

    It takes a lot of flippers to screw in a light bulb because my light bulb is beautiful and I'm not giving it away. This light bulb is worth three times what I paid for it two years ago. If I can't get my price then I will just rent my light bulb out until the market improves.

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  16. What is the point of selling your lightbulb? Where would you invest your profit?

    If you are in the dark currently, then the point is moot.

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  17. discretionary spendingJuly 13, 2006 11:26 PM

    I plan to take the profits from the sale of my light bulb and buy many more light bulbs. (on credit with a minimal down payment of course) Then I will improve them and put granite countertops in them and use them for colateral so I can buy even more light bulbs. Then when I own all the light bulbs I can charge whatever I want for them and those losers with no light bulbs will have to pay my price, if they don't want to sit in the dark, that is. I even plan to buy light bulbs from the factory and then expect appreciation on my light bulbs because I kept them in good condition too.

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  18. Actually it's unknown how many. I was wrong earlier. In reality, Suzanne is still researching it.

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  19. There can never be enough lightbulbs. And, no matter how many are produced their price will never decline.

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  20. I am buying my lightbulb using a negative amotization loan. Therefore, I will likely at some point owe more then my lightbulb is worth.

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  21. Yes, ALL homeowners have neg.am., interest only, zero down loans. None can afford a payment adustment. All will get sick and/or lose their jobs and be foreclosed upon.

    All renters have hundreds of thousands saved away from their "rent savings". They will all be at the courthouse to swoop-in on these foreclosures. The renters have recession-proof jobs and disability insurance (probably AFLAC).

    The renters are an intrepid bunch. Afraid/unable to purchase at, perhaps, one of the best times in history; they are now ready, willing and able. They will gladly buy a foreclosure sight unseen, with NO inspection and No financing contingency. They will gladly fork over 10% non-refundable at the courthouse steps.

    I can't wait to see it.

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  22. Lightbulb? Puhleeze! I use a halogen. Makes everything look bigger.

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  23. How many group house renters does it take to drive property values in a neighborhoood?

    I don't know; lets ask David. David, what do all your neighbors think of a bunch of guys living together near them? Do you all compete for parking spaces?

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  24. Would you pay $2300 per month to rent this house in Silver Spring MD?

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  25. i order my lightbulbs pre-construction and by the time they are built, the value has grown exponentially. isn't america great? this is so easy that i plan to use all my profits to expand this operation. you can't lose!

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  26. discretionary spendingJuly 14, 2006 9:35 AM

    My lightbulbs will never be sold on the courthouse steps. My lightbulbs are special. Besides, they give me a sense of security and you can never pay too much for a lightbulb. If I have to I will keep my lightbulbs forever. I am not going to lose money on my lightbulbs and I certainly will not be giving them away. My lightbulbs pay for themselves in the long run and buying lightbulbs was the smartest thing I ever did.

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  27. I can't afford a lightbulb.

    I can only look longingly at all my friends, family and neighbors who have their own lightbulbs.

    This makes me very bitter and envious that they chose to buy lightbulbs back when they were cheap, while I bought candles. And now I can't afford to buy a lightbulb because with the money I didn't spend on candles, I spent on useless crap and never got around to investing it.

    So now I'm a bitter candle-user and I'm looking for validation from other candle-users that I made the right decisions in life.

    I'm also pretty pissed at all those who bought lightbulbs and who can see clearly at night.

    Maybe I should create a website and see if there are any other grumpy people like me?

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  28. I rent my lightbulb.

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  29. I rent a 45 watt lightbulb for the price of a 20 watt lightbulb while lightbulb fanatics covet the gold plated 120 watt lightbulbs that are really just polished up 60 watt lightbulbs.

    apparently though, this makes me dim...

    My $0.02.

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  30. Anonymous said...
    "Would you pay $2300 per month to rent this house in Silver Spring MD?"

    No, but I'd pay $2,300 per month to buy it. Who wants to see that kind of money flushed down the drain!?

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  31. I live with my mom and use her lightbulb.

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  32. WSJ.com/marketbeat.

    9:17 a.m.: Amid the steady drum beat of bad news from home builders, D.R. Horton’s report Thursday night that it was sharply slashing its earnings guidance for 2006 is especially worrisome to the battered sector. The Fort Worth, Texas, homebuilder has long been the golden child of many analysts who were convinced that D.R. Horton’s management style and its ability to dominate certain markets would allow it to keep profiting even when conditions slowed. Gregory Gieber, an analyst for A.G. Edwards & Sons, says that scenario might have come true if the housing market was coming in for a soft landing. But Mr. Gieber says Horton’s profit report on Thursday — which revised its guidance from a range of $5.25 to $5.35 of earnings per share down to $3.65 or greater — helps to confirm, that “this is not a soft landing.” The failure of Horton’s incentives to drive sales in certain markets — a hallmark of the company’s strategy — shows that the current slowdown in homes sales is more profound that many had first thought.

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  33. Anonymous said...
    WSJ.com/marketbeat.


    Ok ... so builders are going to stop building new homes. Geez, I wonder what that does for the value of existing homes? Let's see, reduce supply of homes at the same time that the population is increasing. Wow, could that mean that the price of existing homes will go up even more given reduced competition from new home builders?

    Bubble heads see the glass half empty, housing heads see the glass half full. It's the same glass.

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  34. Okay, here's the part I don't get. Why the anger on both sides? I mean, we're all doing what we think is best with our own money. So what's with the tone? It's just a discussion about financial matters.

    I'll be honest: I think there's a lot of people ("bubbleheads") who secretly regret not buying in 1999-2001 on one side, so they tell stories about 50% price falls and act like every homeowner bought with a neg-am ARM, and a lot of people ("housingheads") who secretly regret buying in 2005 on the other side, so they act like Arab princes and pied-a-tierres will prop up the market. And they're both using lies to reassure themselves.

    My guess: Housing prices will fall, but not by 50%.

    In any case, when it comes to money matters, stay cool, people.

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  35. Ok ... so builders are going to stop building new homes. Geez, I wonder what that does for the value of existing homes? Let's see, reduce supply of homes at the same time that the population is increasing. Wow, could that mean that the price of existing homes will go up even more given reduced competition from new home builders?

    Abra-cadabra, hocus pocus! If there are metrics that can possibly push up prices a bit, why, that should be enough to maintain prices nearly twice that of rents! Look at me hold this floating woman up with broomstick and half of a chair (and a whole lot of speculation that's quickly leaking out of the market.)

    Builders are (starting) to stop building new homes because they see prices falling. Existing owners try to demand high prices but fail because new residents increasingly start waiting for prices to drop as inventory stockpiles rise. Rents fall as owners "wait out the market". This pushes existing prices down more.

    Lather rinse repeat.

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  36. Well said Keith.

    I think both would gain credibility by admitting as much.

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  37. The inventory of lightbulbs available to purchase has skyrocketed across the bubble markets.

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  38. Keith,

    In addition, the "angry groups" you identify are only a tiny fraction of the market. There are plenty of people who bought well before those times that won't be impacted by even drastic declines, and there are plently of people who weren't in a position to buy as far back as 1999-2001.

    Yet sweeping comments are made on both sides pidgeon holing everyone into 1 angry camp or the other...

    My $0.02.

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  39. Keith,

    "Okay, here's the part I don't get. Why the anger on both sides? I mean, we're all doing what we think is best with our own money. So what's with the tone? It's just a discussion about financial matters."

    I can't speak for other housing heads, but for myself I can say that I started on this blog without any "tone" ... but I quickly started being on the receiving end of it including Bill posting under my name and my opinions being discounted because "he must be a real estate agent" or " lance, fritz, va_investor, and all the anons opposing the bubblehead theory are one person ... who is of course someone with a vested interest in somehow inexplicably using this blog to get bubbleheads to spend money and prop up prices ... " Get the idea? I've posted more than my fair share of postings giving what I felt was good advice based on my own experiences. And invariably, some snide remark or unfounded accusation was made. Hopefully, you're bring the problem to light will help in stopping it from continuing.

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  40. mytwocents,

    The vast majority on this board fall into one of these camps. I will leave it to you to determine which one.

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  41. the reason I get angry is because most americans are financially retarded and they trust real estate professioanls , as did stock investors trust wall street analysts cherleaders in 1999-20001..and people bought all the way down once the bubble burst... they will lie to you all the way down in housing as they did to the stock investors/traders who paid 90 or 60 or 40 etcc...for CSCO or any other overpriecd stock...it is amazing...

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  42. discretionary spendingJuly 14, 2006 12:19 PM

    I am not a camper. I am a light bulb flipper. I must have power sockets for my light bulbs. My light bulbs are beautiful. No matter how many light bulbs they make my light bulbs will always be special and they will always go up in value because they are beautiful. Shine on, shine on, I'm gonna let my little light bulbs shine. Next I'm gonna get a bug zapper because the gnats are starting to bother me.

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  43. VA Investor,

    Great point! :)

    My $0.02.

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  44. It only costs 12 cents to make a light bulb that sells for 89 cents. There are millions of light bulbs being made.

    THESE ARE FACTS!

    I'm going to stay in the dark until the laws of supply and demand cause prices to fall to only 3 times my median income.

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  45. The lightbulb factory has an unlimited supply of both raw materials and energy for manufacturing lightbulbs, and the demand for lightbulbs will remain constant and/or drop throughout eternity.

    Therefore, I'm going to wait to buy my own lightbulb. In the meantime, I'm renting both my lightbulb AND the socket into which it is screwed.

    Speaking of screwed.... Those who do not believe that the lightbulb factory is an infinite machine (as I do) are SCREWED!

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  46. Anonymous said...
    "they will lie to you all the way down in housing as they did to the stock investors/traders who paid 90 or 60 or 40 etcc...for CSCO or any other overpriecd stock...it is amazing..."

    So, you think stockbrokers lied prior to the dot.com bust and real estate agents are lying now? In order to lie, doesn't someone have to be either distorting a known truth or making one up all together? So, in order for the stock brokers to have lied or the real estate agents to be lying, doesn't that mean that they'd have to have a crystal ball to know what the future will bring?
    Rather than blaming others for "lying" to you when things don't turn out exactly as the experts told you they thought they might, perhaps you just need to make your own decisions. After all, I would never want to give you advice knowing that you would take it as God's truth and not understand that the future isn't written till it is the past.

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  47. i SOLD my lightbulb to va_investor and i now rent and i am sitting on a pile of gold i purchased with the money. i bought in the 1990's when a lightbulb was cheap. va_investor now has a big fat mortgage payment on a depreciating lightbulb.

    gee i think my gold went up $10 today. i moved on to the next bubble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  48. Sorry anon 6:34, I don't have a big fat mortgage on any of my properties. Hate to burst your bubble.

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  49. anon said:
    "i bought in the 1990's when a lightbulb was cheap. va_investor now has a big fat mortgage payment on a depreciating lightbulb."

    again, bad tone ... coming from, of course, a ... bubblehead ...

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  50. I do not see the glass as half empty. I see the glass as 1/4 full, with a leak at the bottom.

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  51. Lance said...

    So, you think stockbrokers lied prior to the dot.com bust and real estate agents are lying now? In order to lie, doesn't someone have to be either distorting a known truth or making one up all together? So, in order for the stock brokers to have lied or the real estate agents to be lying, doesn't that mean that they'd have to have a crystal ball to know what the future will bring?

    well I use the term "lying" in my argument, as a way of quickly saying that these realtors are nothing more than uniformed/misinformed bull as the stockbrokers are...your commission business is based on sales and volume..a bull market creates this..and for realtors especialyy commissions are based on % of valuew trading hands so this exacerbates the problem..many of the realtors probably sense they are kind of sleazy and some ar ejust parroting what the David Lereahs of the world say..like I said before most Americans are financilla retarded so they are true "fish"..this ponzi scheme has blown up and the people at the top now are screwed...who do you think they are going to blame...realtors will disappea...I know I would if I was one...

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