Sunday, July 23, 2006

Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors Changes Tune

In 2005, Leslie Young Appleton, the chief economist for the California Association of Realtors (CAR), was busy publishing power point presentations mocking the housing bubble theory.



PowerPoint presentation by the California Association of Realtors, in 2005.

Now, Leslie Appleton-Young is "at a loss for words" to describe the declining housing market. Here are excerpts from the LA Times:
Leslie Appleton-Young is at a loss for words.

The chief economist of the California Assn. of Realtors has stopped using the term "soft landing" to describe the state's real estate market, saying she no longer feels comfortable with that mild label.

"Maybe we need something new. That's all I'm prepared to say," Appleton-Young said Thursday.

The shift in language comes as debate over the real estate market is intensifying. The long-awaited drop-off is happening, but there's little agreement about how brutal the landing will be.

For real estate optimists, the phrase "soft landing" conveyed the soothing notion that the run-up in values over the last few years would be permanent. It wasn't a bubble, it was a new plateau.

The Realtors association last month lowered its 2006 sales prediction from a 2% slip to a 16.8% drop. That was when Appleton-Young first told the San Diego Union-Tribune that she didn't feel comfortable any longer using "soft landing."

"I'm sorry I ever made that comment," she said Thursday. "When I get my new term, I'll let you know."

Appleton-Young had no qualms about predicting a hard landing here: "We're expecting a fairly significant shakeout."
You know its bad when the chief economist for the California Association of Realtors is apologizing for using the term 'soft landing.' She also said "Maybe we need something new" to describe the housing market. Patrick.net has a discussion for new terms. Here are some of my suggestions:
  • Painful Landing
  • Tough Landing
  • Rough Landing
  • Hard Landing
  • Crash Landing
Ms. Young Appleton has recognized the very signifcant decline that is occuring in the housing market. So when will David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors stop using the term 'soft landing?'