Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Condo, Condos, Condos


Condos under construction on the edge of downtown Washington, DC

138 comments:

  1. Is that Mass Ave?

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  2. H Street. Near where it intersects Massachusetts Avenue NW

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  3. Please keep on building them, before we run out of land. Everyone should own a couple of condos.

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  4. It's such a beautiful neighborhood too.

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  5. yes, this is really turning into a premier neighborhood. who would have guessed how quickly its transformation could be. i guess the old real estate adage "location, locaton, location" really applies here. it is after all near 7th street and all its artists shops and restaurants, china town and the MCI center, the Capitol and Union Station and the Convention Center. how it could have gone so long undeveloped is really surprising now with hindsight. at my age i prefer a house with a yard, but i can see twenty-somethings loving the urban/Manhattan-like appeal that this neighborhood is now exhibiting. i would have liked to have seen the buildings a little less high given their proximity to the Capitol, but you can't have everything. makes you proud to be a DCer when you see all this construction going up! (and i'm sure the many people that were lining up at my door to bid on my condo last year are going to be happy to see that there will soon be enough for everyone!)

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  6. Hey David,

    Is all of the construction pictured here for condos and condos only? The title of your post would suggest so. Perhaps you should clarify whether any of this area is actually being built for (a) apartment / rental buildings (e.g., like Masscourt at 300 Mass Ave); or (b) a grocery store, like the Safeway planned at 5th and K. Hope this helps.

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  7. Here's a blog about that (general) neigborhood:

    http://gpliving.blogspot.com/

    This picture is taken on the eastern edge of Penn Quarter/Gallery Place/Chinatown.

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  8. I agree with Lance. This previously unkown neighborhood has received a lot of recent press coverage with the murder of a wheelchair-bound mayoral candidate - shot to death a few days ago while sitting in a small park with a friend who is hospitalized in critical condition also with gunshot wounds. It is very sad.

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  9. And there was that recent brutal murder in Georgetown the other day! Clearly it shows the neighborhood is crap and that the million-dollar homes there are grossly overvalued and will fall at least 3,456% in the next 2 or 3 years.

    Dumbass.

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  10. Thierri, Bubble Head #8952July 11, 2006 11:55 AM

    I also agree with lance, especially after that bloke got his throat slit the other night. No biggie though since he was a democrat. Everyone wants to live here.

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  11. You might want photograph and post about the new ATF headquarters building which is being built next to the new New York Avenue Metro station on the red line. Both are near this location.

    Then, walk a little south, away from the NY Ave Metro and the ATF headquarters, and you'll see about a half dozen new office buildings under construction there. Those new office buildings are near the building in this post.

    Then, look into which organizations have already signed leases in those new office building whichh are near the new ATF building and near the new NY Ave metro station. (all of which are near this new condo building)

    THEN look into which major university has its law school located a short walk from the building in this post. And THEN look into the Yale condos and the CitiVista complex; both of which will also be near the building shown in this post.

    You'll have a better understanding of the direction of the neighborhood then, and you'll come off as being a little less misinformed than you are now.

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  12. dc_too,

    The incident you refered to occured in Mt. Vernon (Nth and 6th Street), not the area in question near Mass. Avenue.


    www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/08/AR2006070800646.html

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  13. Bubble talk aside, it's hard for me to see how these condos going up is a bad thing. Whether they sell at the asking price or at a lower price, eventually the condos will sell. That will add people, who will in turn support businesses, in a neighborhood that is rapidly becoming a destination in the city. The building will add to the tax base of the city through additional property, sales and incomes taxes. It will also result in additional city residents who, as owners, have a stake in the city and will hold city government responsible for improvements in services and reductions in crime. Is there anyone out there who thinks these condos are bad for the city as a whole, and if so, why?

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  14. Less than two years ago, a bloke had his hands non-surgically removed with a machete in Alexandria. It wasn't his idea, some other gang bangers who live in the projects around Old Town cut his hands off for him.

    Well, so much for going into Old Town to fell sophisticated for a few hours.

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  15. that is...: "feel" sophisticated. Which is what you know you do; leave your rentals to head into an enclave of lovely homes to feel all upscale for a little while.

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  16. Btw, an increase in crime is an indicator of "gentrification" and not vice versa (per the MPD). The example often given is U Street. When it was abandoned and ruled mainly by thugs and drug dealers, there was little robbery or burglary. Now that there are million dollar condos there, these kinds of crimes have soared. Why? The thieves have cars, and they're going to go to where the money is ...

    For example, everyone associated Anacostia with crime. In fact, the 3rd District MPD (parts of Adams-Morgan down through Dupont to the White House) has the most crime per capita of any part of the District. This is also one of the wealthiest parts of the District ...

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  17. Whew, I'm glad they are still building 'em to help fend off our "housing shortage." What, there is no housing shortage? Huh, that was just realtor-speak for "buy now so I can get a commission?" Oh, ok.

    These poor developers can't turn back now. Once you've bought the land and excavated, you have too much sunk cost to abort the project.

    Its likely that by the time these units are completed, prices will have retreated significantly and these units truly will be affordable. Hope no one bought these units pre-construction though.

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  18. "Is there anyone out there who thinks these condos are bad for the city as a whole, and if so, why?"

    Simple, because everyone who bashes it percieves themselves as being too good to live in DC; yet their lives are indeed tied to the well-being of the city. (as both citizens or residents of the USA, and as participants in the local DC economy).

    It is an astonishing combination of conceit, prejudice, ignorance, and hypocrisy. Those who practice it are incapable of recognizing it in themselves

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  19. While this area is not nearly as HOTT as Lance would have you believe, I definitely think the Yale Lofts location is even worse.

    Tell me, who wouldn't want to have front-door access to the Route 50 and I-395 intersection??

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  20. the plannning process for moving 395 eastward to the industrial portion of NE DC is already in the works. it will be accomplished by continuing the tunnel rather than have it terminate in its current location.

    Bubblehead mantra; nothing ever changes. Cars have always existed. Suburbs have always existed. They themeselves have always existed. They will never die.

    And please, remember: you and your car with out of state plates are welcome to stay OUT of DC as often as possible. Thanks.

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  21. Speaking of locations, what does our "panel" here think of the prospects for Dupont condos? I would imagine one view is that they too will be swamped by the inevitable collapse that is looming; the other is that there are some fixed factors (demand from folks moving from all over, location, growing economy) that will continue to support values--even if growth cools to less superheated levels. Thoughts?

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  22. Thierri, Bubble Head #8952July 11, 2006 12:22 PM

    I hope they will accept section 8 vouchers. I just heard on the news there were 5 shootings and two murders overnight in the district. No biggie though since none of them were white.

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  23. Wow, this blog gets weirder and weirder by the day.

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  24. "These poor developers can't turn back now. Once you've bought the land and excavated, you have too much sunk cost to abort the project."

    Sounds like Mr. Fontain doesn't know what a "sunk cost" is.

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  25. LOL! Yeah, I dug a hole in the ground, now I'm too far along in the construction process to stop now!

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  26. More condo units mean greater supply. Eventually, there will be a supply equals demand scenario, which means prices will begin drop even further from the bubblicious speculative levels.

    I sincerely hope that more African-Americans, Latinos and lower income people will be inhabiting in some of the newer condo developments.

    I shutter to think that Anacostia will be the last bastion of "Chocolate City" DC.

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  27. Proof that Lance isn't a real person, but some sort of random phrase generator... possibly like a Magic 8 Ball.

    "urban/Manhattan-like appeal that this neighborhood is now exhibiting"

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  28. "And there was that recent brutal murder in Georgetown the other day! Clearly it shows the neighborhood is crap and that the million-dollar homes there are grossly overvalued and will fall at least 3,456% in the next 2 or 3 years.

    Dumbass."

    I didn't say anything about price declines, anonyrealtor, but I will point out that anger at the mere suggestion of price declines is a bubble hallmark, for all assets. Stocks, tulips and houses. Good luck with your next commission.

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  29. That building pictured is the Madrigal Lofts. I live across from it and have watched them build the entire thing. Frankly, it's fugly and while that neighborhood is soon to rock (can't wait for the new Safeway), I wouldn't buy in that building.

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  30. Is DC a "safer" place to live now? Just over the weekend there was a brutal murder in Georgetown that is supposedly a safe neighborhood. I have enough friends telling me their horror stories to make me think twice about living in DC (one who is a big guy over 6' 190 got jumped walking home fr. union station, one got robbed twice in U street at gun point, one whose car was broken into several times, etc.) Also couple weeks ago some tourists were robbed near the Mall area that's supposedly the safest area. I have seen some questionable "elements" hanging out in the MCI center area that I don't know if I'll feel safe living in that area.

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  31. This seriously is the angriest blog out there...not the posts, which seem relatively harmless and are obviously the author's opinion, but the comments - some of the "housing heads" are amongst the angriest, nastiest folk in the blog world. If you have a point to make, can't you just make it without nasty comments? or do you just not have a point to make?

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  32. Thierri, Bubble Head #8952July 11, 2006 1:13 PM

    The bitter realtors are angry because they know they soon will be going back to waiting tables.

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  33. DC_Too said...

    I agree with Lance. This previously unkown neighborhood has received a lot of recent press coverage with the murder of a wheelchair-bound mayoral candidate - shot to death a few days ago while sitting in a small park with a friend who is hospitalized in critical condition also with gunshot wounds. It is very sad.

    First off the guy shot to death was not in that neighborhood. Second, I think the guy in the wheel chair was shot after midnight. In addition, he was shot 7 times. That leads me to think that he was shot over some feud or argument. Few criminals have a good enough aim to hit someone seven times from a distance. As such, this was likely a up close and personal grudge killing. Not to make light of the killing. But criminals tend to kill each other. I am more disturbed by the G'town killing than the guy in the wheelchair. That was disturbing due to it being so random and unprovoked.

    Here is a better question for the bubbleheads. Do you think all these new condos will eventually be sold? And for how much? I am bearish on the condo market. With that said, I feel that they will get sold. And the people able to afford them at the eventual clearing price will not the same type of people that were there initially. And the city will benefit from a more progressive neighborhood replacing one of lower income people. That is undeniable. Harris Teeter's and the other grocery stores opening in these areas are not stupid. They spend countless hours researching the market before they commit.

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  34. Thierri, Bubble Head #8952July 11, 2006 1:24 PM

    The home-debtors that move in there will be picked off one by one by random violent crimes. The condos will revert to rentals and will be filled by section 8 people.

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  35. Anonymous said...
    "And please, remember: you and your car with out of state plates are welcome to stay OUT of DC as often as possible. Thanks."

    What state is DC in again?

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  36. section 8, the worst thing to happen in maryland ever. The onset of communism. Lets take from the people who work hard for their money and give it to people who haven't. Seems fair.

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  37. Nathan - that is a fair question. I think the answer will depend on how far along these projects are when things go really sour. Some could just get boarded up until the next upswing, or converted for other uses, like, say, job re-training for realtors.

    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

    Seriously though, this has degenerated into a shouting match between the housing heads, who accuse the bubble heads of predicting a Mad Max-like scenario in which the Mongal hoards converge upon DC and the rest of America to enslave and exploit our over-housed women, and the bubble heads, who accuse the housing heads of desparate and shameless promotion of inflated real estate prices for their own personal gain.

    Truth of the matter, IMHO, is that we have had an unprecedented run-up that is going to run-down. It will be painful, very painful if your livelihood is directly tied to real estate, but things will eventually get better and all the condos will someday be lived in and enjoyed.

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  38. The district is in a real condo mania.

    The volume is mind-boggling.

    http://dccityspaces.com/b/search.jsp

    http://www.dclofts.com/newcondosdirectory.html

    It keeps adding housing units, keeps losing residents.
    The two of them together should make a
    spectacular crash in the DC condo market.

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  39. There is no way that people can afford $400K condos all over DC. There are not enough people to support all this growth at these insane prices. You're going to see a very ugly crash in the condo market in DC, and you're kidding yourself if you think all of these condos are actually going to sell. At a certain point, if they haven't sold most of the units, it costs the management company less to simply board up the building and walk away.

    DC has been labelled as one of the places most likely to crash and burn, and while the gentrification has been nice, watch how fast it reverses itself when all of these interest only loans come due in the next few years. Yes, the crash will be spectacular as long as you're watching from a distance.

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  40. yep.
    The crash will be specatular.
    The experience and the aftermath will be painful.

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  41. I'm the Anonymouse from 9:12 AM, ridiculing the location of Yale Lofts--I've never seen any notice or indication that I-395 was going to be "moved" or re-routed. I would love for the person to so kindly rebuked me to link to some news detailing this major change in DC's transportation system.

    And FYI, my car is DC-registered and I live in the NW.

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  42. Anon said:
    "Anonymous said...
    LOL! Yeah, I dug a hole in the ground, now I'm too far along in the construction process to stop now!"

    Yes, you can tell J. Fontaine never went studied business. If he had, he'd know a fundamental rule in business is that you don't throw good money after bad. (I.e., you don't go spend money on the frame and finishing of a building that will have to be sold for a lose only because you've already spent unrecoverable money on excavation.)
    Also, JF has a problem thinking outside of the box ... geez, let's see ... condos not selling? how about making them into rental apartments and take advantage of the rising rents brought about by DC's 1.7 vacancy rate ... Or how about turning these into office buildings?!?

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  43. Yes Lance,

    Because no business venture has ever failed...

    Do you actually think about your responses and what you're saying or do you just fire off as rapidly as you can?

    My $0.02.

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  44. Thierri, Bubble Head #8952July 11, 2006 2:21 PM

    All these lofts will just go to the queers who want to marry, the blacks and their harem of baby-mommas and bitches and ho's, illegals and other social and economic parasites. And it will be poetic justice to the scummy realtors and greedy sellers who thought it was smart to plunk down a pre-construction deposit and now stand to loose the shirts off their backs! Serves them all right!

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  45. Anonymous said...
    "The district is in a real condo mania.

    The volume is mind-boggling.

    http://dccityspaces.com/b/search.jsp

    http://www.dclofts.com/newcondosdirectory.html

    It keeps adding housing units, keeps losing residents.
    The two of them together should make a
    spectacular crash in the DC condo market."

    Yep, for every welfare mother and her 5 school aged children we lose, we gain at least one highly paid (and highly taxed) professional with 100 times her disposable income ... and no need for an expensive school system. Yeah, that really sounds like this is indicative of a housing price crash!

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  46. Thierri, Bubble Head #8952 said...
    "The home-debtors that move in there will be picked off one by one by random violent crimes. The condos will revert to rentals and will be filled by section 8 people."

    Yep, another nasty-mouthed individual who is bitter that he/she didn't buy when she should have.

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  47. Re: Thieri's posts - Has the asylum lost one of its bubbleheads?

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  48. Do you know what d. is?

    Think about it. If you live in DC, then you surely know what d. is (and the fact that a d. facility is near this building)

    You can make your inquiry of d. mmmkay?

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  49. Just a quick question? Do people really think that not investing in the city's school system is a good way to maintain it's current growthrate/gentrification? Eventually won't these professionals who move into these condos have families and children? Or do most bloggers here believe they will send all their kids to private schools?

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  50. anon said:
    "DC has been labelled as one of the places most likely to crash and burn, and while the gentrification has been nice, watch how fast it reverses itself when all of these interest only loans come due in the next few years. Yes, the crash will be spectacular as long as you're watching from a distance."

    yep, ANOTHER nasty-mouted individual who is obviously bitter that they put off buying as they did.

    someone earlier had the audacity to say the housing heads were rude ... i think this person needs some reading glases or at least reading courses. most of the bubbleheads (though not all), are as foul-mouthed, bitter posters as can be!

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  51. Thierri, Bubble Head #16453July 11, 2006 2:33 PM

    It will be difficult to keep making the payments on their ARM's for the soon to be unemployed RE agents like Lance and Fritz. Maybe they can get a job at an embassy or become saudi princes. Otherwise their cribs will go into foreclosure and will further depress the market.

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  52. anon asked:
    "I'm the Anonymouse from 9:12 AM, ridiculing the location of Yale Lofts--I've never seen any notice or indication that I-395 was going to be "moved" or re-routed. I would love for the person to so kindly rebuked me to link to some news detailing this major change in DC's transportation system."

    I don't know where the other poster heard it, but I heard personally from the chair of the Council last weekend. And it was stated as "done deal" and not as speculation ...

    That area is in for a major rehab. Just follow the smart money to figure that out. There was a Post article last month on how the guy who was the cause for the 14th revitalization (he owns St. Ex's, Bar Pillar, etc.)was working with the District to do the same out on H Street NE. Other developers were mentioned.

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  53. MyTwoCents said...
    "Yes Lance,

    Because no business venture has ever failed...

    Do you actually think about your responses and what you're saying or do you just fire off as rapidly as you can?"

    My2cents, I think it is time that I caution YOU about your responses. You are coming off as extremely unintelligent and anything but business savy. Of course, business fail. If businesses didn't fail that would mean no one was risking anything ... and everything would be frozen in time. I.e., no business would be suceeding either. You are coming off as a very un-imaginative fellow who contents themselves with being a government wonk because "it's a sure thing" and letting your brain rot as you trudge back and forth from you plain vanilla box apartment with Kmart furnishings to your drab government furnished cube in a 1,000 person building where you do lunch in a Marriott cafeteria with all the cheap eats to fill you fat belly for your contented trip home after you spend all afternoon snoozing pretending to work. I.e. a real winner! Where do you look for your dates? The state fair ... at the Holsteins' grange?

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  54. looks like lance just described himself in the above post.

    We will to know lance a lot better as this housing
    crash unwinds in the coming months.

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  55. Thieri:

    Seriously - what medications did you stop taking?


    I haven't heard about 395 being moved in that part of DC, but I do recall several Post stories from months ago abotu Douglas Jemal's developer company buying lots of abandoned buildings and lots in that neck of the woods, as well as in Anacostia. Jemal said something to the effect that while the areas sucked now, he was willing to wait it out until the time was right for development.

    Of course, to the Bubblehead Faithful, Jemal is foolishly sinking his money into a money pit. But to non-members of the Sacred Church of Bubbleheads, Jemal is likely going to be making a killing when his predictions pan out.

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  56. Lance, you're right about apartments, but it is extremely unlikely that residential buildings such as these condo structures would be turned into offices.

    Generally, they do not have the floor height or required floor layouts to be turned into profitable commercial/office space. In fact, I doubt they could rent the space at all to any sort of functioning company.

    It is much more likely they would either be abandoned (unlikely) or turned into rentals/subsidized housing.

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  57. More condo pics: dcunderconstruction.blogspot.com

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  58. Pardon me if I find "heard it through grapevine" as an inadequate source, no matter who it comes from. Such a major undertaking would no doubt have to be widely debated, attracting a lot of attention, before it became a "done deal."

    No doubt the area could use a major make-over, but how long will that take, and how happy would you be with a $450K 1BR while you waited for the gunshots to subside?

    And as for the plans of H Street NE and its revitalization, the only Post article I can recall was on on the potential class and race conflicts that were emerging because of the local neighborhood advisory commission's unwillingness to allow so-called downmarket establishments to remain open there. Sounds far from the idyllic paradise you might imagine.

    Here's that link:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/03/AR2006040301762.html

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  59. Anon asked:
    "Just a quick question? Do people really think that not investing in the city's school system is a good way to maintain it's current growthrate/gentrification."

    I hope you're not reading into what I said about the welfare mother moving out to mean I don't think the District shouldn't invest in its school system? I do. I was responding to someone who said the the District was going to experience a bust in real estate prices because its population was going down while its inventory of condos was going up. I just wanted to explain why less people didn't mean less money or less need for properties. For example, you might have 3 welfare mothers with multiple children in a rowhouse that gets fixed up and sold to a lobbyist and his wife and one child. That is a lot less people population-wise, but a lot more money tax wise (and otherwise to be spent) for the same amount or space provided by that one rowhouse.

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  60. letting your brain rot as you trudge back and forth from you plain vanilla box apartment with Kmart furnishings to your drab government furnished cube in a 1,000 person building where you do lunch in a Marriott cafeteria with all the cheap eats to fill you fat belly for your contented trip home after you spend all afternoon snoozing pretending to work. I.e. a real winner! Where do you look for your dates? The state fair ... at the Holsteins' grange?

    Whoa. Meltdown. Three posts earlier he said that bubbleheads were rude...

    But he right about one thing - there is a class in B-school called "Throwing Good Money After Bad - Don't Do It" This class is the prerequiste to "Penny Wise, Pound Foolish - Don't Be It" which is taught right after "How Ben Franklin's Sayings Apply to Real Business" These were favorites of Buffett and Elliston.

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  61. Lance,

    I'm sorry I don't buy into your real estate only goes up, up, up rhetoric. You have shamed me with your imaginative creativity to invent details of my life and then mock me for them. Bravo.

    Suppose, for a moment, that the market *gasp* levels off. What advantage is there to owning a condo versus "a plain vanilla" box?

    Seriously, what is the difference between an apartment that comes with a lease, and an apartment that comes with a deed, if property values were to stagnate?

    This is a hypothetical question. I'm attempting to think, analyze a potential business scenario, and work on creative analysis here. Please don't knock me down as I endeavor to remake myself in your image.

    My $0.02.

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  62. fritz,

    What have you been smoking?

    The US average for number of people in a housing unit is 2.39

    For The District it is just 2.0

    Thats what is needed in DC, more housing.

    Invest like Jemal and you will be rolling in wealth.

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  63. Thierri,

    What asylum did you escape from? Your bitterness at being left behind in life is shining through your writings like you wouldn't believe.

    And no, I am not a real estate agent. Also, I can't understand the bubbleheads' obsession with real estate agents. Do they really think the agents are "to blame" for the high prices. I think I did a pretty good job explaining yesterday that as a seller I came to realize that if anything, real estate agents try to get people to underprice their properties because they rather have all easy sales and make their money with volume. (I.e., it is faster and easier to sell two identical condos at the relatively low $400K asking price than to sell the one overpriced unit at $650K. ... And the real estate agent gets more overall commission for 2 times $400K sales.) Blaming the real estate agent for high prices is like blaming your doctor for giving you cancer because he's the one who discovered you had it. Get real, stop being whiners, and understand that there is no conspiracy out there making it harder for you to buy ... It is just market conditions and those reflect a reality that you can't do anything about ... other than accept it and work with what you have.

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  64. Hmmm....let's see--buying up abandoned buildings and razed lots for relatively cheap in preparation for future construction...vs buying a ridiculously overpriced shoebox in a bad neighborhood.

    I think it's pretty clear which one is a moronic decision. I wonder where Jemal lives...

    ...looks like the West End or Chevy Chase. Huh, wonder why that is?

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  65. Lance, thanks for addressing my post. I am just wondering what will happen if these DINK folks actually decide to have kids and the school system has not been improved. Will the result be that these professionals will move out for just that reason. And if so what result will that have on the city in the future. Just a thought..thanks all for such an interesting blog.

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  66. my2cents asked:
    "Seriously, what is the difference between an apartment that comes with a lease, and an apartment that comes with a deed, if property values were to stagnate?"

    Big difference ... in 2 words: It's yours!

    In more words, you have a stake in your house, your community, and your city. You don't need to worry about being forced out because the landlord needs the place for his inlaws ... or just plain doesn't like you and will lie to give the legal reason to get you out. You don't have to ask permission to put that nicer faucet on your bathroom sink. You have a pride of ownership that will help you stop being bitter.

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  67. My two cents - the advantage to buying a primary residence in a stagnating market is that over time, you pay off the note and own it outright. That, of course, is predicated on staying put for decades, and further predicated on a traditional, fixed rate loan that allows one to pay for his future lodging with today's dollars.

    Now, if you believe prices will just stagnate, sideways, that is another thing altogether. Not gonna, er, is not happening. Nominal prices are declining as we speak.

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  68. Anonymous said...
    "Lance, thanks for addressing my post. I am just wondering what will happen if these DINK folks actually decide to have kids and the school system has not been improved. Will the result be that these professionals will move out for just that reason. And if so what result will that have on the city in the future. Just a thought..thanks all for such an interesting blog."

    For the immediate future that is not a problem because the vast majority of people moving into the District are either empty-nesters or singles. Yes, there are increasingly more DINKs moving in ... and more heterosexual ones at that who will definitely require good schools if they are to remain in the District. Proportionately, they could all leave tomorrow and it wouldn't put a dent in the trends here. In the future however, they will be increasingly more important. Each of the mayoral candidates have made improving the schools their top priority. So, (a) we have plenty of time to get the schools fixed since we don't even yet have an large number of heterosexual DINKs living in the District ... or even thinking about living in the District, and (b) the problem has already been anticipated and is being addressed. (Incidentally, they've already slated some 5 underused schools to be closed to help defray repair costs on remainder schools ... And they have plans in the offing to sell land surrouding schools to developers who will build more urban type schools as well as commercial and residential units on the land.)

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  69. "Seriously, what is the difference between an apartment that comes with a lease, and an apartment that comes with a deed, if property values were to stagnate?"

    This is about the best evidence I've ever seen proving that bubbleheads generally don't understand anything related to real estate. They claim that they chose to buy because prices are too high, but this post illustrates that the real reason is probably ignorance

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  70. I really like when lance has no more argument to make and how
    he turns into an ugly venom spewing machine.

    I really enjoy it.

    If only I could also see the expression on his face.
    lance, do you have a webcam?

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  71. Anonymous 12:21,

    You're confusing a question to initiate debate with evidence of ignorance. You are seeing what you want to see.

    Lance has responded with intangible examples of the difference between renting and owning. Those intangibles do have a value so good for him. However, their relative value depends on an individual's personal inclinations.

    The broader point I'm trying to make is that, housing heads typically rant and denigrate renters yet turn around and extoll the virtues of owning condos. That doesn't make much sense to me when there is so little relative difference between the 2 housing styles.

    My $0.02.

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  72. Used to live in Foggy Bottom and work at GWU Hospital many years ago. Loved DC, nightlife and the surrounding areas but saw enough of the Friday night gunshot and stab wounds to realize that this was becoming a 24/7 event.

    Pulled the pin and left for greener pastures after I dodged two large dudes with a pistol that were intent on walking me to my car after a late night/early morning of emergency surgery.

    If you listen closely on a cold clear night, you should still be able to hear the ECHOS of my tennis shoes smacking pavement between the canyons of buildings as my mind thought

    Location..Location..Location !

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  73. Looks condolicious.

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  74. "Sounds like Mr. Fontain doesn't know what a "sunk cost" is."

    "LOL! Yeah, I dug a hole in the ground, now I'm too far along in the construction process to stop now!"

    I hate to even respond to such drivel, but here goes. After a developer has spent $15 to $25 million on land and paperwork and another $2 million on excavation and shoring, the last thing it wants to do is to abandon the project and write off the CTD project costs.

    Generally speaking, and unless the developer thinks the project has turned into a serious loser, the project will go on. The developer may not make its anticipated profit if unit prices are lowered significantly (which will happen before these buildings are completed), but it will probably cover its costs.

    Lance, do you or any of the anons really care to get into a detailed discussion of SOP 81-1 with me and show the blog how "smart" you really are?

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  75. It's a good location to get shot at :)

    location! location! location!

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  76. And lets not forget about the executory contract the developer has with the builder, the contractors that have been paid retainers, the materials that have been ordered and scheduled for delivery, the developers overhead (staff, etc) costs which are better applied to a break even project than not applied to any project at all, etc, etc, etc.

    Shall we continue????

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  77. Anonymous said...

    And as for the plans of H Street NE and its revitalization, the only Post article I can recall was on on the potential class and race conflicts that were emerging because of the local neighborhood advisory commission's unwillingness to allow so-called downmarket establishments to remain open there. Sounds far from the idyllic paradise you might imagine.

    Anonymous,
    It shows you don't visit DC very often. Especially H St. I was on H St. last Friday night. There are at least 3-4 yuppie nice bars in close proximity. I went to Showbar, the bar next door and H St. Martini Lounge. In the first two, there were scores of WHITE people in there. Who ever would have thought that could happen 5 years ago? That's significant in that there are few welfare whites in DC. In H St. Lounge, the crowd was predominately black professionals. Drinks were 10-14 a pop. Riffraff can't pay those prices. That area is changing rapidly. Not to mention that area is very very close to Capitol Hill, metro and bus, and Union St. If prices there for a suitable rowhouse were in my range, I'd buy. You should check out these areas before you so flippantly dismiss it.
    On a side note. A buddy of mine has a friend that lives on 10th & H. He is an investment banker in B'more. His base salary is 160K. He supposedly is in line to receive a bonus of 90K this year. Another example that there are a lot of people with a lot of money around here.

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  78. Quick question: How many million dollar 2 bedroom condos does it take to pop a real estate bubble in DC? Any takers?

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  79. Thanks Nate Dogg, I appreciate the heads up on 3-4 bars on H Street. That sounds like an incredibly hip scene. Thanks, but I think I'll stay in Dupont. My visits to Cap Hill are usually on the south side anyway.

    Also appreciate the anecdote about your friend's brother's uncle's nephew (or whomever) who's getting a big bonus (supposedly!). You can't put a price on data that good.

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  80. Crime is a great deterrant to yuppie gentrification. I remember when the real estate developers were salivating about new condo developments in Columbia Heights. All of those yuppie lawyers, architects, corporate bosses, and big-shot IT engineers were going to snap up those properties.

    Only...crime in the Columbia Heights area is INCREASING. There are more reported cases of robberies, assault & batteries, shootings, and homocides. Apparently, the yuppie tide is not leaning to Columbia Heights so much.

    You stick a gun in the face of a white yuppie walking down the street...you will find that "urban pioneer" will turn into a suburban town house owner. Don't be surprised to find a REVERSE moving trend where single, high-income professionals will relocate to "safer, whiter" parts of the area like Northwest DC, Arlington, or Bethesda.

    Just because a few white yuppies walk around the mean streets with their designer clothes and drive around with their stylish European automobiles, the local crime element will not budge. If anything, the incoming yuppies present fresh meat for theft and worse.

    Because the DC government has failed to protect the properties of lower income residents; the drug dealers, gangbangers, and pimps are the WALL that keeps the gentrifications from spreading further. That's a blessing and a curse for District residents.

    Nothing is more devastating to real estate values than crime. Nothing.

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  81. Data like that is as valuable as all the data from the Bubblehead Faithful about how no one in DC is making much money except for a handful of lawyers and some Saudi princes. Just because Bubbleheaders are making 40k doesn't mean everyone else in DC is stuck in the same dinghy.

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  82. Based on the logic of ihateyuppies, since crime is INCREASING in areas like Georgetown and Dupont Circle, housing values in those areas are also due for a plummeting. Which is great because then the Bubbleheaders will tap the savings they have been accumulating while renting and swoop in to buy a Georgetown mansion or Dupont rowhouse for mere pennies on the dollar.

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  83. Fritz,

    Crime is increasing in Columbia Heights. I never wrote about G'Town or DuPont.

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  84. Read what I wrote. I am using your own logic to show its inherent fallacy.

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  85. Fritz,

    Redskins Fan posted data on demographics, household income, and industry wages from the Dept of Labor.

    I posted data on median home prices in this area from NAR.

    Are you saying these are unreliable sources? Or, as I suspect, are you simply a housing head that doesn't even bother to consider the argument for declining prices being made?

    My $0.02.

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  86. There are heinous acts of crime in Manhattan. Try buying a condo there. I personally know a guy that killed a guy in self defense on M. St. in G'town a couple years ago. Property values kept going higher. But I'm with you bubbleheads. I hope the crime in Dupont, G'town, Kalorama, and the Palisades increases. Unlike you though, I'll be there waiting to bail the homeowners out on their way to the suburbs. I'm in alot of the "gentrifying" areas of DC on a regular basis. I see upper income whites in Petworth riding their bike at midnight on Ga. Ave. I see the professionals walking their dogs at night on 4th & Emerson. I see the parties they throw at their 500K rowhouses on Delafield. Now if I lived in the suburbs and rarely ventured to DC, I would be skeptical too. Frankly, I am amazed at the rate of change. But I am not so naive to think that the changes maybe long lasting. I am a 31 year old black male. I may have mentioned this in other posts. I am suprised to see the level of income of the blacks here. The guy I told you that makes 160K. He's a 30 year old black guy. He could live anywhere in this metro area. He chose H. St. All my friends make upwards of 75K. Now I am not so naive to think everyone makes that kind of money. But there is a critical mass of people that do.

    Bottom line: I have a good deal of property in this area. But I am immune to the prices as all my property is rented with positive cashflow. So you won't see me being a cheerleader as others on these boards. But I am bullish on this market long term.

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  87. Nathan Boggs,

    True. Washington, DC has a critical mass of high-paid professionals: lawyers, doctors, ES government officials, IT engineers, investment managers/brokers, entrepreneurs etc.

    But then DC has a critical mass of janitors, bus drivers, landscapers, fast-food workers, retail customer service, and unemployed people.

    You have high-income, post-graduate degree professionals making six figures and you have their servant class.

    What's disappearing from Washington, DC? What's disappearing from other major metropolitan areas like NYC, Boston, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Miami? The middle class.

    You can't have a healthy society if the gaps between the rich and poor are getting wider and the middle class is leaving the area in droves.

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  88. ihateyuppies said...

    What's disappearing from Washington, DC? What's disappearing from other major metropolitan areas like NYC, Boston, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Miami? The middle class.

    You can't have a healthy society if the gaps between the rich and poor are getting wider and the middle class is leaving the area in droves.

    Maybe so. But NYC, Boston, SF, and San Diego have seemed to thrive without a middle class. Things may be no different here. I have long looked at the demographics in NYC and thought they were out of line with the cost of housing. Instead of me spending so much time thinking negatively trying to convince myself that the market was out of whack, I should have been looking at what was really happening. There are people that live in Manhattan that won't even consider Brooklyn. There are people that live in DC that couldn't make the same amount of money elsewhere. There are jobs in DC that exist NO WHERE ELSE. NO WHERE. On the whole, I think DC is relatively affordable compared to the other cities I mentioned.

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  89. In the same way that bubbleheads accuse every housinghead of being a realtor, every housinghead thinks all the bubbleheads are poor.

    Neither is true, of course

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  90. an "old rule of thumb" for DC locals was to "Dress-Down" between dusk and dawn even if you were stopping at the local supermarket. Many of the "well to do" people acknowledged this as common sense and would wear the DC area "street clothes" whenever possible !

    There was NO Presidential Limo Escort waiting at the curb with 2-3 armed bodyguards for the average jane/joe or their family conducting daily business or enjoying a little evening night life.

    You had to be a very stupid tourist, a self-impressed village idiot or a "Fresh Meat" Yuppie clown to overdress in DC after dark to impress the Muggers.

    Even without any outward show of Flash or Glitter clothing, just traveling alone or in a small group, or even eyeballing someone could cost you your life in some supposedly "fairly upscale" areas.

    Welcome to America's Capitol...Just like any US big city...only a little more Dangerous when totally Stupid !

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  91. I know this blog is a discussion about increasing home prices and whether or not there is a bubble. But I have not seen a discussion of what will happen to those individuals who do not work in DC? There are plenty of people who work in other areas in the suburbs of MD and VA. How does that play out? Will those people sell their homes in the suburbs so they can commute from DC to Tysons to go to work? Interested in your viewpoints.

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  92. Any comment on the latest Virginia home sales numbers:

    http://www.nvar.com/market/pressrelease/prnvjune06.html

    Inventory is up YOY, but so are prices...we are now at the very peak of the bubble (June of last year) and still no NOVA price declines...hmm...

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  93. "Inventory is up YOY, but so are prices...we are now at the very peak of the bubble (June of last year) and still no NOVA price declines...hmm..."

    Note that the sale price doesn't necessarily mean that's the actual price the buyer pays since many sellers are adding extra incentives such as paying for the closing cost which is not reflected in the sale price.

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  94. My two cents:

    How does the Labor Department and Census Bureau statistics affect ihateyuppies' logic about increasing crime rates in gentrified areas of DC leading to a new white flight? Perhaps before you get your panties in a knot, you should actually read what is being said. It would help your heartrate and your panties.

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  95. Boggs: "There are people that live in DC that couldn't make the same amount of money elsewhere. There are jobs in DC that exist NO WHERE ELSE. NO WHERE."

    Yeah, it's called the federal government. There are big money lawyers, IT entrepreneurs, defense contractor executives, and tons of small business owners that count on federal government spending to keep their livlihoods afloat.

    Without the federal government, Washington, DC would be like Richmond, Virginia.

    Boggs: "But NYC, Boston, SF, and San Diego have seemed to thrive without a middle class."

    Those cities get their tax revenue from three main sources:

    1. Large corporations that own buildings.

    2. Affluent residents

    3. Tourists and conventions.

    Just because the fiscal health status of major gentrified urban centers such as NYC, SF, and Boston is solid, doesn't mean that there are deep social problems. All of these cities have very high homeless populations. Diseases such as AIDS continues to be a scourge in the metro areas. Gang violence continues to be a problem.

    Now, if these cities were so prosperous, how come they can't make a dent with these social ills? Could it be that these cities are spending more money on law enforcement, jails, art galleries, and sports stadiums instead of meeting the needs of the disabled, homeless, and impoverished? I wonder what those wealthy people do with their handsome Bush tax cuts?

    Like I wrote before, on the budget sheet...those cities are thriving. But that's not enough. You need to have a diverse city along racial, ethnic, and socio-economic class lines to make it socially thrive.

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  96. Great picture David. You know they did invent an "Auto Focus" a couple of weeks ago.

    I can visualize you trying to drive and take a picture behind you and to left. HA

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  97. it was taken on the sidewalk from a camera phone.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Thierri, Bubble Head #129450July 11, 2006 7:56 PM


    Without the federal government, Washington, DC would be like Richmond, Virginia.


    I prefer to compare it to baltimore, withouth the federal gov, DC would be worse than Baltimore. Baltimore at least has some pretty good port facilities. Crime in DC isn't going away, I'm certain it will get worse over the next few years IMHO.

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  99. ihateyuppies said:

    "All of those yuppie lawyers, architects, corporate bosses, and big-shot IT engineers were going to snap up those properties."

    uh .... where have you been? they have.

    www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/30/AR2006063000652.html

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  100. ihateyuppies said:
    "But then DC has a critical mass of janitors, bus drivers, landscapers, fast-food workers, retail customer service, and unemployed people."

    I hate to be the one to break the news to you, one needs $$$$s to have critical mass. Sheer numbers are not enough in a capitalist society. I'd say the poor have sheer mass in India. That doesn't guarantee them a house of their own.

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  101. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  102. ihateyuppies asked:
    "I wonder what those wealthy people do with their handsome Bush tax cuts?"

    they buy ever more expensive houses and condos, of course!

    again, I am amazed at how you accurately define things as they are, but don't see the implications of what you are saying. it's almost as if your world is a "should be" world rather than a "is" world ... and you base your solutions on some naive belief that if everyone just "did the right thing" then we would all be better off. Yes, we would, but it's never happened in the past and it won't happen now. Like Jesus says in Jesus Christ Superstar "Dear Father, why do you count on me!?!? What can I do? There have always been poor and there always will be poor!!!!"
    Take a clue from Christ himself. The world is at it is and all your whining isn't going to change it. Just learn to look out for yourself without hurting others is the golden rule ... being sure to show charity to others when appropriate, needed, and wanted.

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  103. jdubs said:
    "I can visualize you trying to drive and take a picture behind you and to left. HA"

    have YOU ever tried taking a pic from a moving Metro bus!?!?

    ;)

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  104. ihateyuppies said:

    "You can't have a healthy society if the gaps between the rich and poor are getting wider and the middle class is leaving the area in droves."

    You really amaze me. You often see the truth but draw the exactly wrong conclusion from it. YES the middle class is disappearing here. I wouldn't say they are "leaving the area" as much as I would say they are getting ploughed over to one side of the economic divide or the other. (E.g., Is there really that much difference in skills required between a $70K/yr 22 yr old IT analyst and a $8/hr 22 yr old manager at Walmarts? Not really unless you count the degree and the opportunities opened by it.) So, you are seeing the problem ... but inexplicably, you are not seeing that it is what is causing the economic divide in housing costs between buying and renting.

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  105. I'm going to keep my eyes open for the overweight white male suburban group house renter with the camera phone taking pictures of construction zones....

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  106. Lance
    "Is there really that much difference in skills required between a $70K/yr 22 yr old IT analyst and a $8/hr 22 yr old manager at Walmarts? Not really unless you count the degree and the opportunities opened by it"

    A 22 yr old manager at Walmart is able to do what an IT analyst can do?

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  107. lance,

    "a $8/hr 22 yr old manager at Walmarts?"

    Managers at Walmart make significantly more then 8$ an hour especially in the Washington area. Lance you are wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  108. wvu_84 asked:
    "A 22 yr old manager at Walmart is able to do what an IT analyst can do?"

    That and more! I've had the 22yr old IT analyst work for me ... so I am speaking from experience. What is learned in college is a very good basis for learning on the job in the future, but the reality of the situation is that most 22 yr olds fresh out of college get stuck doing the administrative jobs that the higher up don't want to do themselves ... While the 22 yr old WalMart manager... well, he actually gets to manage!

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  109. David said...

    ""a $8/hr 22 yr old manager at Walmarts?"

    Managers at Walmart make significantly more then 8$ an hour especially in the Washington area. Lance you are wrong."


    David, I don't know what a "just starting" Walmart or McDonalds or 7-Eleven manager makes in the DC area, but I am sure it is significantly less than what the IT guy just starting in his career makes. I wouldn't be surprised if it is barely above minimum wage. I'll google and try to find out.

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  110. "Anonymous said...
    Lance, thanks for addressing my post. I am just wondering what will happen if these DINK folks actually decide to have kids and the school system has not been improved. Will the result be that these professionals will move out for just that reason. And if so what result will that have on the city in the future. Just a thought..thanks all for such an interesting blog."

    Maybe those people will demand that the district provide decent schools, and elect people in office that will make that happen.

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  111. "
    Like I wrote before, on the budget sheet...those cities are thriving. But that's not enough. You need to have a diverse city along racial, ethnic, and socio-economic class lines to make it socially thrive."

    I can care less if the area socially thrives. I want the property values to go up in the long term. If NYC's property values have gone up without the city thriving socially, then that's fine with me. I have no social contract with the city. Nor am I engaged in a social experiment.

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  112. nathan,

    ihateyuppies is a social idealist who is willing to sacrifice his own good for the greater good of society. i have to admire that somewhat ... though i also (now in my middle-aged years) understand how naive he is ... i once was the same, and it wasn't until i realized how few people are out there willing to cooperate in making things better for us all that i started looking out for myself instead. and now that i have, i am financially secure, and the funny thing is that now whenever i want to help someone because i feel they are in need and really looking for help, well i really can! before all i could do was whine about why "society" isn't doing enough. THAT is the irony of accepting "the system" vs. whining to say you want it changed.

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  113. Lance & Nathan,

    Not everyone aspires to be Warren Buffett. Sure, it would be nice to make billions and give billions in return for charity. Obviously, you two only care about making money. Good for you. You are good behaving capitalists.

    People can make change without earning six-figure incomes. People can make a difference in society without making millions in contributions.

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  114. I thought home ownership was encouraged (ie massive tax benefit) precisely to give people a reason to have a vested interest in their neighborhood and society?

    Not caring about society is short sighted.

    My $0.02.

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  115. ihateyuppies,

    everything i said just flew right over your head ... let me repeat in more concise language. how can you expect to help others if you aren't even in a position to help yourself? and no, whining that others should help both you and others isn't contributing a da'mn thing ... just being a backseat driver is all ...

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  116. mytwocents,

    i'm not sure if you're understanding either. are you saying that one can't help others if they are helping themselves? sorry, i believe it is just the opposite. in order to help others, you first have to be in a position of strenght. whining "why isn't anyone doing anything to help us?" isn't helpful to anyone ... and that is what ihateyuppies is doing. the really sad part about it if you think about it, is that his idealism is really self-serving on the bottom line. he wants society to come in an impose price controls on sellers so that "society" and him can be given the kind of housing he deems himself deserving of.

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  117. Well apparently the DC Council thinks helping lower and middle income families in the area of affordability is important. They included funding for affordable housing in an an ammendment to the FY2007 budget. I am sorry I don't have the link, however, the hearings were on television yesterday evening and ran until very late in the evening. Of course this is short of price controls..but it is clear there are other people who recognize there is a need to address affordability within the city.

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  118. Lance,

    What a bunch of garbage. The only thing that is self-serving today is when rich Americans demand tax cuts.

    Your bottom line argument is that if you make tons of money...you have the power to make change and hey...to buy a condo as an investment. Hey...Wow...that's wonderful.

    So what you mean is that if you are a school teacher, law enforcement person, or bus driver; you are shit-out-of-luck with this economy and the housing market. All well...it's your fault that you didn't become a lawyer or real estate investor. Nice.

    You better be writing campaign checks to the Republican Party because the Democratic Party will get its act together and defend the interests of working people...not the investment class that YOU belong to.

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  119. And inevitably the people who we require to provide city services live outside of the city. I always thought the general idea was that those who live in the community will probably have a vested interest in the health of that community. If you take a look at members of the DC FEMS department, which lately has come under a lot of fire, you will see a lot of employees especially firefighters who live in areas very far from the district. Does this have any impact in how they serve the community? Do you care if the EMS department sucks when you don't live there?

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  120. um, Ihateyuppies, you have no idea about political parties. Democrats are definitely not for the working people. I used to be one of them (democrat). Then after several years of tracking the way they vote and the laws they want, they are not for the working people. I wouldnt say republicans are but they are a hell of a lot more for indivual rights then deomcraps. Most people, like me, just want government out of our lives, democrats want to legislate your lives. They want to tell you what to believe and what is ok. Democrats in my opinion, should be named socialists. They want everybody to be a slave to the government because they know what is best for you. I encourage you to read book on it, and not just frankin.

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  121. Lance,

    I understand what you're saying just fine.

    I'm merely surprised by the contradictions coming out in what Nathan Boggs is saying. Namely, that as a housing head he's strictly out for himself. Could care less about society (which fortunately implies he cares at least somewhat). Meanwhile, one of the core arguments housing heads make is that, by owning, you are vested in your community and work harder to support and nourish it.

    NB is out for himself. I have no major problems with that, but I do find it short sighted. And I'm a bubble believer who's not supposed to care about anyone else much less avoiding a major economic breakdown...

    My $0.02.

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  122. ihateyuppies is a social idealist who is willing to sacrifice his own good for the greater good of society. i have to admire that somewhat ...

    I was just agreeing with Lance before and he ruins it!!!

    Well, I half agree with him: social idealists, especially leftists, often are more than willing to sacrifice their own good for the "good for society" except that they often define that "good" as making other people sacrifice their own good as well. From each according to their ability and all of it to the government... DC is full of Lance's and the bad red-staters have all but fled for the suburbs. Shouldn't it now be a modern marxist utopia?

    Ihateyuppies claims that cities somehow must have racial diversity to be sustainable. So Tokyo is a hellhole? Or Vienna? Let's turn this contention on it's head: Did the racial diversity of Kosovo make it a utopia? Or the racial diversity of Palestine?

    ReplyDelete
  123. PK, it must make your blood boil to travel around Seven Corners. Large numbers of illegal immigrants, combined with hindu and muslims walking around. The intersection of Columbia Pike and Four Mile Run... wow. What is a superior white male to do?

    ReplyDelete
  124. "PK, it must make your blood boil to travel around Seven Corners. Large numbers of illegal immigrants, combined with hindu and muslims walking around. "

    It's horrible that you see all those Italians in Baltimore's little Italy, Chinese in China town, Anglo-Saxons in waspy neighborhoods.

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  125. polishknight,

    did you bother to read everything that I wrote ... if you had, i'd already pointed out the same things about social idealists that you were pointing out ... i'm not sure how that makes me a socialist as you are saying! or an "investment class" pig as ihateyuppies is claiming!

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  126. Lance,
    If people were actually moving into the condos, your theory on the rich white man with a high tax rate would be true, but go check the vacancy rates, then go check the your foreclosure rates. Then go look at history and tell me what happens to empty condo buildings in the middle of huge economic downturns. 8A baby, lots more 8A. 8A all the way!

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  127. Anonymous said...
    "Lance,
    If people were actually moving into the condos, your theory on the rich white man with a high tax rate would be true, but go check the vacancy rates, then go check the your foreclosure rates. Then go look at history and tell me what happens to empty condo buildings in the middle of huge economic downturns. 8A baby, lots more 8A. 8A all the way! "

    huh ... everything in DC here is selling. Signs don't stay up long, condos are filling up. uh ... no problems here. Where do you live, Des Moines are some other heartland place?

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  128. "huh ... everything in DC here is selling. Signs don't stay up long, condos are filling up. uh ... no problems here"

    What are you on?

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  129. " "huh ... everything in DC here is selling. Signs don't stay up long, condos are filling up. uh ... no problems here""

    This is BS. Why are there so many special promotions for condos like crabfeasts, pool parties, plasma tvs etc.

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  130. David said:

    "This is BS. Why are there so many special promotions for condos like crabfeasts, pool parties, plasma tvs etc."

    David, Name one in DC ... not in Silver Spring, but in DC.

    Also on the first thread what is that comment about Kurds being killed? Kinda strange .. unless I missed something ...

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  131. "Name one in DC"

    555 Massachusetts Ave. NW has had several (food, drink near the pool on the roof) along with waiver of condo fees and closing costs.

    Alta at Thomas' Circle, which last year wouldn't accept agents, is not offering incentives such as closing costs and waived condo fees, as well as WELCOMING agents.

    I get emails regularly for promotions on DC condos, usually parties. There's a whole group of people, same ones at every party, that treat these like happy hours with free booze and food.

    You will deny this, which of course can't be argued with, morons can never be argued with. Just ignored.

    Protest all you like, condo oversupply will continue to grow, prices will continue to fall.

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  132. I've been to some of these parties, for the free food and booze of course.

    You'd think that they'd be a lot unsold units in the building hosting these parties.

    But that's not the case, at least not at the buildings in DC.

    At the parties I've been to, I learned that all of the best units (top floor, corners, views) were already sold. At some of these parties, about 80% of the building was sold. The only remaining units were the most undersirable ones, the units on ground floor, no views, by elevator, etc.

    If fact, one condo development was hosting a party this past spring, and the only remaining units were a handful of studios.

    I'm surprised at how hard the developers work to sell the last few remaining units. I suppose it's because those last few units probably represent their profit margin.

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  133. Anon,

    Condo parties=falling prices.

    Yeah you're right. Only a moron would argue with definitive data like this.

    Then again, only a moron would consider this to be data.

    This, at the core, I think, is another case of bubblehead confusion of asking price vs. sales price. The asking prices of these condos were generally way higher than comps, even during the peak last year. Even with recent reductions to asking prices, I think these asking prices would still represent an increasing trend over comps.

    Thus, you may want to reconfigure your data as:
    Condo parties=decreased asking prices=increased sales prices.

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  134. David said: "there [are] so many special promotions for condos."

    Anony provided two condos that have had parties. David ditto'd Anony's post.

    So "so many special promotions" equals two condos? Weak. Very weak.

    I don't doubt that there are promotional parties thrown by condos. The question is how many condos and what that number represents in the universe of all condos in DC. My guess is that it is a miniscule number when put in that context.

    More fact, less fuzzy math.

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  135. So, lance says "provide ONE example in DC", I provide a couple (if you want more info, do your own research, this is a blog, not my job or a court case), and of course, the reactionaries come out and say it's not "data".

    It's not. It was a response to a moronic misstatement.

    "At the parties I've been to, I learned that all of the best units (top floor, corners, views) were already sold. At some of these parties, about 80% of the building was sold. The only remaining units were the most undersirable ones, the units on ground floor, no views, by elevator, etc."

    Absolutely false again, at 555 Massachusetts, they were only 60% sold, and the two-bds with gorgeous views were, and for the most part, are still available.

    They're OVERPRICED.

    And this disputes lance's assertion that none of these parties are in DC (only Silver Spring) and yours that these buildings are mostly sold out.

    It only takes one example to challenge a blanket statement.

    I really wonder about people that hope that something will be true just because they say it. Has this worked for you in the past, this attempt to change major economic/demographic trends with a simple assertion on a blog?

    Hint: being reactionary damages one's credibility. Give in a little to reality if you want any respect for your statements/arguments.

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  136. "More fact, less fuzzy math."

    Are you asserting that there is mathematical accuracy in your posts?

    I go by what I see, I'm not waiting for lagging statistics to comfort me that an obvious trend isn't actually happening.

    Consumers aren't actuaries. Supply and demand speak for themselves.

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  137. Anon,

    "At the parties I've been to, I learned that all of the best units (top floor, corners, views) were already sold. At some of these parties, about 80% of the building was sold. The only remaining units were the most undersirable ones, the units on ground floor, no views, by elevator, etc."

    Absolutely false again, at 555 Massachusetts, they were only 60% sold, and the two-bds with gorgeous views were, and for the most part, are still available."

    Stong words for such a weak example. 555 Mass was initially built as a rental property, and it was later converted to condos after minor renovations.

    The is relevant because most condo buildings are not even constructed until a majority of the units are presold. Because 555 Mass was built as rentals, there were no presales, and the first sales did not begin until the time of the parties there.

    555 Mass is not a representative example, and I doubt you can name any DC condo buildings were most of the units are not already sold.

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