Thursday, July 20, 2006

Shooting Located Where Two Houses Are For Sale

With so many homes for sales in the Washington, DC area, is not so surprising that at one of the shooting locations there were two houses for sale right there. Thanks to the reader who sent this one to me.

57 comments:

  1. Call off the open house for Sunday.

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  3. Maybe I can get me a house in Georgetown for the cheap now since there was a vicious slashing there recently?

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  4. WSJ completely disembowels DC market today. p. D1. Ouch.

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  5. Was this in anyway related to roving gangs of rival realtors?

    http://vancouvercondo.info

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  6. We had that interesting discussion just the other day of how some of us thought that violent neighborhoods shouldn't have high home prices...

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  7. In fact, I think Zillow.com should start putting little crosses on their zestimates of homes and maps if a murder has happened in the last two years in a neighborhood; much like those crosses you see on the roadsides for deadly accidents...

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  8. "WSJ completely disembowels DC market today. p. D1. Ouch"

    Did you even bother reading that article? The only thing mentioned was that inventory has tripled since last year, which tripling close to nothing is still barely a reasonable number of homes for sale.

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  9. I always have one liner for flippers and buyers.
    for Flippers "get out as fast as you can before you are ruined"
    for buyers "wait as long as market does not come back to trdational rent/buy equation otherwise you will get ruined like a flipper?
    In general "let us watch and wait and see who is proven right in due course of time"

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  10. Of course, the DOM comparisons are yet that much more impressive because they take into account the 30-40% decrease in the number of buyers as well as the increase in inventory.

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  11. Redskins, was that you there trying to convince some seller to give you the house for $140K? Don't come to open houses in the District, WE ban guns! (smile)

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  12. "Did you even bother reading that article?"

    Yes, I did bother, but, unlike you, I didn't selectively edit what I saw:

    The aforementioned 300% growth.

    AND

    "A June survey of real-estate agents by Banc of America Securities found that home prices had weakened from the prior month in 30 of the 42 metropolitan areas covered. The markets with the weakest pricing trends included Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, St. Louis and Washington, D.C."

    AND

    "Kent Fowler, a real-estate agent and investor in Washington, is bracing for an extended period of pain. Construction was recently completed on a condo near the city's Chinatown district that he bought in 2004 for $629,000. Mr. Fowler believes the two-bedroom condo, with a view of the Washington Monument, now is worth at least $800,000. But potential buyers are scarce in today's glutted market. So he is trying to find a renter for the condo for the next year or two at around $3,500 a month, even though that rental income would fall about $900 short of his monthly loan payments, condo fees, taxes and insurance."

    AND

    an accompanying document that shows pricing trend down sharply according to B of A.

    Again: ouch.

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  13. Moody's sez job growth looks "average" for DC. What happened to those zillions of highly-compensated lawyers etc who were rampaging into DC to gobble up those 52,000 condoes coming online? Lance?

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  14. It begins in Baltimore...3.41% price growth from June 2005, a real price decline. Nominal drops to follow soon...stay tuned. 23% fewer sales than June 2005, but still the third highest sales level on record, yet inventories continue to build at a 7+ year high of over 16,000, 126% more than June 2005. What happens when sales levels normalize yet the people with resetting ARMs try to sell in 2007, adding to the tremendous inventory we've got going into the slower fall and winter? This is getting interesting...

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  15. "A June survey of real-estate agents by Banc of America Securities found that home prices had weakened from the prior month in 30 of the 42 metropolitan areas covered. The markets with the weakest pricing trends included Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, St. Louis and Washington, D.C."

    What does this mean? It's just an empty statement. Does it mean that instead of asking 30% over 2005 levels now sellers are asking 20%?

    "Kent Fowler, a real-estate agent and investor in Washington, is bracing for an extended period of pain. Construction was recently completed on a condo near the city's Chinatown district that he bought in 2004 for $629,000. Mr. Fowler believes the two-bedroom condo, with a view of the Washington Monument, now is worth at least $800,000. But potential buyers are scarce in today's glutted market. So he is trying to find a renter for the condo for the next year or two at around $3,500 a month, even though that rental income would fall about $900 short of his monthly loan payments, condo fees, taxes and insurance."

    So you think someone who's place may be valued for 170k over his buying price is hurting. Even if he is 10% overpriced of current market conditions he still would be ahead by 90k. Plus if cash flow is a problem he could make a depreciation on his rental which based on that amount he paid would probably cover the $900 loss.

    an accompanying document that shows pricing trend down sharply according to B of A.

    I can't see this graph on the database I get the journal from, so I can't comment on it

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  16. Yes, I was going to add the comment about job growth as well. I've said it before, but the fact is, DC's job growth is impressive when compared to the rust belt and the northeast. But compared to much of the southeast and southwest, especially going forward, we're completely tame.

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  17. No such thing as bad publicity...right?

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  18. I don't understand how the investor's situation in the WSJ is so bad that it "disembowels" the market.

    Run the numbers. I think "cash on cash" is the term.

    $42,000 gross rent
    $4,200 professional management
    $7,200 condo fees
    $6,000 taxes
    $1,000 General liability insurance (condo fee picks up "homeowners insurance")

    $23,600 net income, or

    3.75% return on the $629,000 investment.

    Anyone who has invested in the stock market would be happy if his worst year was 3.75% return.

    Now, because the market is so bad it takes him 2 years to sell it for $800,000.

    $800,000 gross
    $48,000 sales commission
    $20,000 misc sales costs
    $629,000 original cost
    $103,000 net proceeds
    $ 47,200 net rent (from above)

    $150,000 gain before taxes

    or 23.8% over two years
    or about 11% annually, before taxes. And because it's real estate he could do a 1031 exchange and invest in a new property without realizing his gain.

    Who on this blog is so smart they're going to turn down an 11% return?

    The reason the guy in the article is going to lose $900/month is the same reason he doesn't have the cash to buy it with out a mortgage.

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  19. waiting for godotJuly 20, 2006 6:50 PM

    "Run the numbers. I think "cash on cash" is the term."

    Was that a joke?

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  20. The DC area is creating 90K high paying jobs a year (as per the CRA). These are not the Walmart type jobs being created in the South. And yes these are not just Lawyers-- they are high paying homeland security, contracting, and management jobs. 50K units coming online with 3 years might seem like alot, but when you consider that the region is going to create 270K jobs in the next 3 years, you see that the current housing shortage is only going to worsen.

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  21. Pardon me, but I've been in a coma for the past 10 years. What are hispanic gangsters doing in the hunt country?

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  22. Those are "forecasted" numbers, not actuality. Thus your statement is offbase.

    The people denying the bubble has popped are either jealous, angry at their own failure of recon or just supporters of the current economic regime.

    The bleakness will overtake you by the end of this year, let it, become one with it, or just sadly decay away into nothingness.

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  23. Waiting for Godot,

    Please tell the board your guaranteed investment strategy that has made you the financial success you are today.

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  24. Man, if all those high paying jobs are coming to town; you'd think people would be scarfing up all these condos sitting idle on the market and locking in their gains before prices rise even more...

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  25. Sterling hasn't been "hunt country" for at least 40 years. It's a section 8 dumping ground.

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  26. Sterling has gone from bad to worse. I sold last year. It is no safe place to be.

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  27. waiting for godotJuly 20, 2006 9:01 PM

    "Please tell the board your guaranteed investment strategy that has made you the financial success you are today. "

    Rent a place for a positive cash flow...not a $900 monthly loss for starters

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  28. Mattie, the reality is the majority of those jobs are not high paying jobs. As are the majority in any regional number quoted for job creation.

    Sure, some are, but most are service and support for the few who are making a lot of money. Guess what, we have wal-marts here too. I shop in one sometimes and last I looked, it wasn't filled with PhD types.

    As far as the south goes, I'd suggest you visit it again if you think all they're creating down there are wal-mart jobs. Have you ever been to Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte, Dallas, Nashville, even Birmingham? Atlanta has a corporate culture that rivals and beats many European cities. The south is the future economic engine of this country. And I admit I grew up in NJ with a distorted view of the south. Now I'm thinking of moving there.

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  29. ok Redskins, how much would you pay for one of these?

    www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/20/AR2006072001739.html

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  30. waiting for godotJuly 20, 2006 10:18 PM

    "how much would you pay for one of these?"

    Give me a granite kitchenette, and I'll take one at the lowest price point! At least a granite topped minibar...Does that fact that I am obsessed with granite make me a bubblehead?

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  31. LOL Lance. No, more likely I would be the one being shot at if I ever went out an actually proposed any of my values to any deep-underwater flippers.

    On the topic of the post, it does amaze me how so many people who are new to the DC area are so confident that historically high crime areas are now definitely and irreversibly getting better. Or how slapping up an upscale mall where a midscale mall failed (e.g., Landover) is somehow a guarantee of success.

    A Redskins fan

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  32. Whoops, the above post should have been on the other thread.

    Lance, I don't know New York, and I don't want to know New York. So not much. From what I have seen of New York, the biggest negative is the New Yorkers, although given how many move to other places (unfortunately including DC) and talk nonstop about how great New York is (and maybe it is better now that they left), I imagine there may be few actually left in New York.

    A Redskins fan

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  33. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  34. LOL ... oh boy! ... I don't think I'll comment on your post. Btw, what do you think of latino immigrants? could their craftsmanship and attention to detail be driving up the prices of new and renovated houses?

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  35. If you're asking me, I like Latino immigrants a lot- enough to marry one.

    I also like how the DC area's Latin population is somewhat unique in the U.S., in that it is so predominantly Salvadoran. You are never too far from a pupuseria in most of the area.

    But I don't know that the Latino immigration has affected the bubble at all.

    A Redskins fan

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  36. Waiting for Godot, being obsessed with granite furnishing doesn't make you bad.

    Being shown a property that is overpriced to the point of being insulting, and being told that one of the reasons that it is being offered at a high price because it has a granite minibar AND buying that property without thought to anything else makes you bad.

    I think that is what makes most bubbleheads or bubblewatchers upset. It's not that they are raging at being priced out of the market, and it's not that they're raging at having "missed their opportunity." Instead, it is being angry and insulted at being offered legions of subpar crap and then being told that there is something wrong with us because we see them as excruciatingly bad value for the money.

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  37. redskins said:
    "If you're asking me, I like Latino immigrants a lot- enough to marry one."

    ok, you've restored my faith in you. i'm glad to see your prejudice is restricted to new yorkers and not indiscriminately widespread! (other than to homedebters, real estate agents, and lenders, of course!)

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  38. Lance said:

    "ok, you've restored my faith in you."

    Yeah, but you also have faith that $600,000 townhouses are fairly priced, so now I'm worried.

    Just kidding. Good luck.

    A Redskins fan

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  39. Faith-based economics, that's what Lance is all about.

    Lance, you still have hours and hours available during the work day to blog - ergo, my Lance-RE meter tells me things are still slow for home sellers out there.

    (By way of explanation, Lance - a real estate agent - will spend less time blogging when there are more buyers; when things are slow - like now - he spends all day blogging on this website.)

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  40. David,

    Don't your blog rules prohibit posting the factually untrue?

    "Lance - a real estae agent"

    should be deleted.

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  41. anon 6:30,

    dc_housing news aka bill aka dc_bubble_meter has so discredited himself in the past that few of us here pay him any mind. in case you are new to this blog, bill actually went out and created his own blog when asked to play fairly in this blog ... he doesn't have any heated arguments or discussions or problems with "false" statements on his blog as he censors each and every post coming in. so remeniscent of the utopic societies the communists always claimed to have in years gone by ... People who have control issues always think problems can be solved by simple fiat ... and, unfortunately, subtle and not-so-subtle lies such as trying to call me a real estate agents because since he can't discredit my arguments, he seeks to discredit me. Thanks for your post, but I think we have neutralized this one fascist, and his posts just serve to discredit him furhter!

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  42. Bill:

    How many times do you need to be told to not post on this website? What part of go away do you not understand? You have your own blog, post there to your heart's content.

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  43. Mattie has a point. The South is creating a lot of jobs. But they are lower paying jobs. I am from Alabama originally. The biggest job creator has been the automakers. Not exactly the highly skilled jobs you would want to build your economy around.

    The one thing about the South that keeps the real estate values low is the availability of land. In the ATL metro area, they are expanding (building houses) almost to Alabama. It's hard to raise prices when builders are building more and more houses and the land is cheap. Same thing in Dallas. A buddy of mine bought a house three years ago and couldn't break even. And this was during the height of the real estate boom.

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  44. "but I think we have neutralized this one fascist, and his posts just serve to discredit him furhter!"

    Oops! Freudian slip ... I must have been thinking "Fuehrer"

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  45. Regarding Kent Fowler, the real estate broker/investor from the WSJ article--he is selling the place on Craiglist for $749K with one parking space or $799 with 2. So he's already not near the profit that above posters believe is possible. And every month he takes a $4K+ hit for an empty unit (since it is not currently rented out) reduces his profit further. Some places in that building (Quincy Court) have been sitting since April.

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  46. "he censors each and every post coming in..."

    No, just your posts, Lance.

    "utopic societies... communists... fiat..."

    Bought yourself a thesaurus with all your free time, now that real estate sales are slumping, Lance?

    "I think we have neutralized this one fascist, and his posts just serve to discredit him furhter!"

    And how exactly did you "neutralize" me, tough guy?

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  47. BILL:

    PLEASE GO AWAY!

    CAN I POSSIBLY MAKE IT ANY MORE CLEAR TO YOU?

    YOU HAVE YOUR OWN BLOG. POST THERE, NOT HERE.

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  48. Nah, it needs to be clearer. Could you please write it in all caps - and also bold the text for me?

    Thanks.

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  49. it must be lonely out there in your own rogue blog, huh Bill? I guess you can empathize with the likes of North Korea and other totalitarian societies now that you've experience the lonliness that comes with knowing what is "right" and not up for discussion or compromise?

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  50. Huh?

    Well, it's admirable you spelled "totalitarian" right, Lance. Now, work on the rest of your English.

    North Korea = my blog? Yes, like Kim Jung-il 'I'm so ronree on my ritto brog.'

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  51. and witto it is, silly wabbit!

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  52. ... just like that "wittle" thing between your legs that your landlord sees swinging while he's raping you for all you are worth!

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  53. Bill - you're pretty pathetic. David has made it pretty clear that you're not wanted here, yet you keep wasting bandwidth. I'm glad David doesn't delete your posts and instead leaves them up so that all can see his messages to you and your lack of any decency in complying. That sort of publicity surely must be doing wonders for your blog and your credibility.

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  54. Lance - why are you jamming up this blog with anonymous postings to make it appear other voices are seconding yours? It's you, your writing style, and remember, you can be tracked.

    Now, tell us again why we should buy from shyster real estate agents like you?

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  55. dc_housing_news aka Bill,

    you are delusional. get yourself to a head doctor immediately! (it's not like you're needed at your empty blog! LOL!)

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  56. I would be 'delusional' to take your advice and buy a home now, with interest rates rising and home prices falling - and with too many greedy sellers/real estate agents (such as yourself) hanging onto inflated 2005 prices. That's delusional.

    I appreciate the free advertising everytime you mention my blog, but why do you continue to obsess about it?

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  57. Good Lord! Bill a/k/a "DC Housing News" - you really need to get a life and get lost. Is it not clear to you that neither David nor anyone else want you here?

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